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821.
Designing environmental monitoring networks to measure extremes 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Howard Chang Audrey Qiuyan Fu Nhu D. Le James V. Zidek 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2007,14(3):301-321
This paper discusses challenges arising in the design of networks for monitoring extreme values over the domain of a random environmental space-time field {X ij } i = 1, . . . , I denoting site and j = 1, . . . denoting time (e.g. hour). The field of extremes for time span r over site domain i = 1, . . . ,I is given by \(\{Y_{i(r+1)}=\max_{j=k}^{k+n-1} X_{ij}\}\) for k = 1 + rn, r = 0, . . . ,. Such networks must not only measure extremes at the monitored sites but also enable their prediction at the non-monitored ones. Designing such a network poses special challenges that do not seem to have been generally recognized. One of these problems is the loss of spatial dependence between site responses in going from the environmental process to the field of extremes it generates. In particular we show empirically that the intersite covariance Cov(Y i(r+1),Y i′(r+1)) can generally decline toward zero as r increases, for site pairs i ≠ i′. Thus the measured extreme values may not predict the unmeasured ones very precisely. Consequently high levels of pollution exposure of a sensitive group (e.g. school children) located between monitored sites may be overlooked. This potential deficiency raises concerns about the adequacy of air pollution monitoring networks whose primary role is the detection of noncompliance with air quality standards based on extremes designed to protect human health. The need to monitor for noncompliance and thereby protect human health, points to other issues. How well do networks designed to monitor the field monitor their fields of extremes? What criterion should be used to select prospective monitoring sites when setting up or adding to a network? As the paper demonstrates by assessing an existing network, the answer to the first question is not well, at least in the case considered. To the second, the paper suggests a variety of plausible answers but shows through a simulation study, that they can lead to different optimum designs. The paper offers an approach that circumvents the dilemma posed by the answer to the second question. That approach models the field of extremes (suitably transformed) by a multivariate Gaussian-Inverse Wishart hierarchical Bayesian distribution. The adequacy of this model is empirically assessed in an application by finding the relative coverage frequency of the predictive credibility ellipsoid implied by its posterior distribution. The favorable results obtained suggest this posterior adequately describes that (transformed) field. Hence it can form the basis for designing an appropriate network. Its use is demonstrated by a hypothetical extension of an existing monitoring network. That foundation in turn enables a network to be designed of sufficient density (relative to cost) to serve its regulatory purpose. 相似文献
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本文介绍建筑物避难安全性能设计在台湾地区的发展情况,包括楼层避难安全验证法和整栋建筑物避难安全验证法。楼层避难安全验证法分为两个阶段,第一阶段先验证起火居室人员的避难安全,第二阶段验证起火居室外整层楼人员的避难安全,并给出一个九步的验证程序和相应的计算公式。整栋建筑物避难安全验证法也分为两个阶段,第一阶段先验证各楼层人员的避难安全,第二阶段验证整栋建筑物人员避难的安全,并给出一个六步的验证程序和相应的计算公式。通过对避难安全验证法的分析,并对各自的验证程序进行了阐述,以便可以据此指导建筑物避难安全的性能设计。 相似文献
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摘要:为研制适用于煤矿瓦斯抽采钻孔、满足施工强度要求的小尺寸随钻超声成像仪器,对随钻超声成像仪器的关键受力部位——超声探头安装孔进行优化设计,分析煤矿瓦斯抽采钻孔的一般规格,建立超声探头安装孔的三维模型,确定关键参数类型及其取值范围,采用极差分析法找到对受力部件强度影响较大的参数,基于响应面法开展有限元数值模拟,运用Box-Behnken设计方法得到超声探头安装孔关键参数与仪器受力部件性能指标的关系,优化受力部件关键参数的数值。结果表明:优化前最大的等效应力为138.6 MPa,优化后受力部件最大等效应力较优化前降低9.05%。结论验证了设计方法的有效性,为煤矿抽采钻孔随钻测井仪器的研制提供思路。 相似文献
827.
武咸城际铁路在咸宁市上跨武广高速铁路,安全风险极大。论述了跨高速铁路桥梁基础承台防护桩的设计和施工,分析了防护桩设计的影响因素,确定了计算桩长。此外,从单桩承载力、桩基内力及基地应力三方面计算进行了安全性验证,确保了桥梁承台施工安全,对类似工程的基础安全防护有较好的借鉴作用。 相似文献
828.
Katrina Davis Marit Kragt Stefan Gelcich Steven Schilizzi David Pannell 《Conservation biology》2015,29(1):226-237
Marine fish stocks are in many cases extracted above sustainable levels, but they may be protected through restricted‐use zoning systems. The effectiveness of these systems typically depends on support from coastal fishing communities. High management costs including those of enforcement may, however, deter fishers from supporting marine management. We incorporated enforcement costs into a spatial optimization model that identified how conservation targets can be met while maximizing fishers’ revenue. Our model identified the optimal allocation of the study area among different zones: no‐take, territorial user rights for fisheries (TURFs), or open access. The analysis demonstrated that enforcing no‐take and TURF zones incurs a cost, but results in higher species abundance by preventing poaching and overfishing. We analyzed how different enforcement scenarios affected fishers’ revenue. Fisher revenue was approximately 50% higher when territorial user rights were enforced than when they were not. The model preferentially allocated area to the enforced‐TURF zone over other zones, demonstrating that the financial benefits of enforcement (derived from higher species abundance) exceeded the costs. These findings were robust to increases in enforcement costs but sensitive to changes in species’ market price. We also found that revenue under the existing zoning regime in the study area was 13–30% lower than under an optimal solution. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for both the benefits and costs of enforcement in marine conservation, particularly when incurred by fishers. Justificación de los Costos de Aplicación en la Asignación Espacial de Zonas Marinas 相似文献
829.
Efficient and equitable design of marine protected areas in Fiji through inclusion of stakeholder‐specific objectives in conservation planning
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Robert L. Pressey Natalie C. Ban Jorge G. Álvarez‐Romero Stacy Jupiter Vanessa M. Adams 《Conservation biology》2015,29(5):1378-1389
The efficacy of protected areas varies, partly because socioeconomic factors are not sufficiently considered in planning and management. Although integrating socioeconomic factors into systematic conservation planning is increasingly advocated, research is needed to progress from recognition of these factors to incorporating them effectively in spatial prioritization of protected areas. We evaluated 2 key aspects of incorporating socioeconomic factors into spatial prioritization: treatment of socioeconomic factors as costs or objectives and treatment of stakeholders as a single group or multiple groups. Using as a case study the design of a system of no‐take marine protected areas (MPAs) in Kubulau, Fiji, we assessed how these aspects affected the configuration of no‐take MPAs in terms of trade‐offs between biodiversity objectives, fisheries objectives, and equity in catch losses among fisher stakeholder groups. The achievement of fisheries objectives and equity tended to trade‐off concavely with increasing biodiversity objectives, indicating that it is possible to achieve low to mid‐range biodiversity objectives with relatively small losses to fisheries and equity. Importantly, the extent of trade‐offs depended on the method used to incorporate socioeconomic data and was least severe when objectives were set for each fisher stakeholder group explicitly. We found that using different methods to incorporate socioeconomic factors that require similar data and expertise can result in plans with very different impacts on local stakeholders. 相似文献
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