GO-FLOW方法在共因故障中的应用

共因故障是影响高冗余系统可用度的重要因素。针对如何评估它对系统可用度的影响,简要介绍了GO-FLOW方法,给出利用GO-FLOW计算受共因故障影响的系统不可用度的方法和步骤,并引用实例加以说明。     

浅谈HSE管理从设计抓起的理念与实践

探讨了HSE管理从设计抓起的理念,总结了在科研设计工作中实施HSE管理的经验和体会.     

基于CREAM方法的人因失效概率预测模型研究

认知可靠性与差错分析方法(CREAM)是第二代人因可靠性分析方法中的代表方法之一,通过对任务环境进行分析从而直接确定人为差错发生概率。本文分析了该方法及其后续研究在人因可靠度评估时存在的主要问题,并以CREAM方法为基础建立新的人因失效概率预测模型。模型首先要求有针对性的对具体任务环境确定通用性能影响因子(CPC)权重,然后通过对CPC进行打分对任务环境进行量化,通过加权求和的方式分别计算出CPC的改进总分值G和降低总分值J,最后运用新建的预测模型计算出人因失效概率。新模型提出了三点改进:第一将任务环境设定为连续的空间;第二提出了不同的工作环境(任务环境)应该有其对应的CPC因子权重;第三考虑正影响CPC因子和负影响CPC因子的双重影响,建立双变量预测模型,预测结果更加合理。     

多因素机制作用下在役钢筋混凝土结构构件的可靠度分析

钢筋混凝土结构在实际环境中会同时受到多因素机制的作用,由此而导致的钢筋混凝土结构的老化及其修复加固一直是研究人员关注的热点问题。由于影响因素的复杂性,这些问题至今没有得到很好的解决。为此分析了最常见的几种因素作用的机制。考虑了各因素机制作用之间的相关性对结构构件可靠度的影响,用系统可靠度方法分析了多因素机制作用下钢筋混凝土结构构件的可靠度并给出了算例。该分析方法计算简便,为在役钢筋混凝土结构的安全评估和修复加固提供了一种计算可靠度的参考方法。     

宿迁市教育大厦消能减震设计研究

对地处地震高烈度区的宿迁市教育大厦进行了消能减震设计。采用消能减震支撑框架结构体系代替传统的框架—抗震墙结构体系,进行了结构非线性时程分析,对消能装置的数量及布置进行了优化。分析结果表明,消能减震支撑框架结构在多遇地震作用下的层间位移能满足《建筑抗震设计规范》要求,在罕遇地震作用下具有更高的安全储备,表现出良好的抗震性能,可为高烈度区类似结构的设计提供借鉴。     

A Revealed Preference Approach to Estimating Supply Curves for Ecosystem Services: Use of Auctions to Set Payments for Soil Erosion Control in Indonesia

Abstract:  To supply ecosystem services, private landholders incur costs. Knowledge of these costs is critical for the design of conservation-payment programs. Estimating these costs accurately is difficult because the minimum acceptable payment to a potential supplier is private information. We describe how an auction of payment contracts can be designed to elicit this information during the design phase of a conservation-payment program. With an estimate of the ecosystem-service supply curve from a pilot auction, conservation planners can explore the financial, ecological, and socioeconomic consequences of alternative scaled-up programs. We demonstrate the potential of our approach in Indonesia, where soil erosion on coffee farms generates downstream ecological and economic costs. Bid data from a small-scale, uniform-price auction for soil-conservation contracts allowed estimates of the costs of a scaled-up program, the gain from integrating biophysical and economic data to target contracts, and the trade-offs between poverty alleviation and supply of ecosystem services. Our study illustrates an auction-based approach to revealing private information about the costs of supplying ecosystem services. Such information can improve the design of programs devised to protect and enhance ecosystem services.     

造纸黑液循环流化床锅炉技术分析

文章分析了利用循环流化床锅炉燃烧技术处理制浆所产生的黑液污染问题的可行性及其应用情况，对国内造纸行业的治污技术具有一定的推广应用价值。     

Investigation of stakeholders' awareness and adoption of Inherently Safer Design (ISD) principles in South African utility industry projects

The paper examines the level of awareness of stakeholders in adopting Inherently Safer Design (ISD) principles in the Project Life Cycle Management (PLCM) of South African Energy utility projects. It seeks to understand whether stakeholders in the latter stages of the Project Life Cycle are competent to make design change decisions on these projects. ISD principles are essentially useful for reducing risks and as such, safety experts have acknowledged it as an excellent approach in the design process. However, there are no known efforts to date that attempt to integrate ISD concepts into PLCM. This paper seeks to fill this gap. This study, through the review of extant literature establishes that ISD principles can be used in project procurement, and adopts a quantitative survey approach in obtaining information from stakeholders in the South African utility industry. Findings reveal that the principles of inherent safety are permeating into the management of South African utility projects but the level of awareness and its adoption are below optimal levels. It also emerged that there is a divergent awareness of ISD strategies amongst PLCM stakeholders and that the design engineers are better informed about the ISD approach of eliminating risks and hazards in the industrial systems studied than other stakeholders. The findings also indicate that the level of awareness of stakeholders of ISD principles is greater within earlier project phases. Based on these findings, the paper concludes that the hazards witnessed within the project execution and finalization phases could be as a result of the low levels of awareness, divergent views and lower use of ISD strategies by PLCM stakeholders. It is suggested that the level of awareness of the principles, concepts, basics and benefits of integrating ISD into PLCM be raised amongst stakeholders functioning within utility industry project procurement in South Africa and that design changes be limited to the earlier phases of utility project procurement.     

Inherently safer sustained casing pressure testing for well integrity evaluation

This paper presents the use of a model to predict sustained casing pressure (SCP), from early pressure buildup data, as a basis for inherently safer well integrity testing. Inherently safer principles aim to eliminate or reduce the hazards by design rather than by using protective features. SCP, a well integrity issue exhibited in many wells, is any measurable pressure that rebuilds after being bled down and attributable to causes other than artificially applied pressure or temperature fluctuations in the well. Intrusion of gas, resulting in SCP, can occur because of poor cement bond in the casing or cement deterioration. Gas entering the annulus migrates to the wellhead and represents a hazard due to increased wellhead pressure and the gas inventory. Compromised well integrity can have catastrophic consequences on both environmental and safety aspects.Most regulations require the monitoring, testing and, eventually, the elimination of SCP. However, test data analysis is predominantly qualitative and limited to arbitrary criteria. Due to the high percentage of wells that present SCP, accurate, safe and preferably fast testing methods are needed. This paper implements an analytical model, rooted in the transport processes and thermodynamics of the system, to predict pressure profiles and gas accumulation during SCP testing from early-time pressure buildup data. The amount of gas accumulated during different testing criteria, being 1) current practices and 2) early diagnostic by the analytical model, is calculated and compared. Results show that using the analytical model as a predictive tool, testing time is reduced significantly, thereby limiting the amount of gas accumulated and reducing the risk. This makes the testing procedure inherently safer as well as less time consuming.     

Preparation of Co–MgO mixed oxide nanocatalysts for low temperature CO oxidation: Optimization of preparation conditions

In this study, a series of Co–MgO mixed oxides (30 wt.% Co) were prepared by co-precipitation method and employed as catalyst in low temperature CO oxidation reaction. The preparation conditions were optimized by the Taguchi method of experimental design to synthesize a sample with high catalytic performance toward CO oxidation reaction. The effects of four variables, pH of solution, aging temperature, aging time and molarity of precursor solution at three levels were investigated. The optimized sample was characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), temperature programmed reduction (TPR), temperature programmed desorption of oxygen (O₂-TPD), N₂ adsorption/desorption, thermal gravimetric and differential thermal analysis (TGA/DTA), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) techniques. The results revealed that the optimized sample showed a mesoporous structure with a narrow pore size distribution centered in the range of 7–17 nm and particle size about 5.5 nm. It was found that the molarity of solution and aging time had the most influence on the CO conversion, respectively. The catalytic results showed that the highest CO conversion obtained from samples synthesized by Taguchi orthogonal array was about 90% at 200 °C, while the CO conversion for optimized sample was 95%. In addition, the effect of operational conditions was studied over optimized sample.