基于Visual Basic.NET的油气事故应急资源需求预测支持决策系统

针对油气事故后应急资源需求预测困难的问题,在对油气事故特性及应急资源需求类型分析的基础上,构建了基于案例推理(CBR)的油气事故应急资源需求预测模型,并使用Visual Basic.NET及SQL Server数据库开发了油气事故应急资源需求预测支持决策系统。将该系统应用于实际油气事故案例进行验证,结果表明系统中应急资源需求预测模型科学可靠,系统对油气事故应急资源需求预测结果与其实际用量基本吻合。该系统可为油气事故后快速有效开展应急救援活动提供相应的理论依据。     

Setting the stage for the review of the international estimate of short-term intake (IESTI) equation

ABSTRACT

In the framework of setting Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) for pesticides, both chronic and acute health risks to consumers arising from the long-term and short-term dietary exposure to pesticide residues have to be assessed. The current internationally harmonized approach for assessing the acute dietary exposure is based on deterministic methods for calculating the IESTI (International Estimate of Short-Term Intake). Recently, it became apparent that the IESTI approach needs a revision in the light of new scientific and political aspects. The main reasons that require this review were the lack of an international harmonization of the methodology which implies trade barriers as well as difficulties in risk communication concerning the public trust in regulatory systems. The most recent milestone in the scientific debate on a possible revision of the IESTI equation was an international scientific workshop held in Geneva in September 2015. The main objectives of this meeting were the re-evaluation, and where possible, the international harmonization of the input parameters for the IESTI equations as well as the equations themselves. The main recommendations from the workshop were (i) to replace the highest residue and supervised trials median residue with the maximum residue limit (MRL), (ii) to use a standard variability factor of three, (iii) to derive the P97.5 large portion value from the distribution of consumption values of dietary surveys expressed as kg food/kg bw/d, and (iv) to remove the commodity unit weight from the equations. In addition, the application of conversion factors and processing factors was addressed. On the initiative of the (World Health Organization) WHO Collaborating Centre on Chemical Food Safety at the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the Netherlands, an international working group with members from the French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety, France (ANSES), Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority, Australia (APVMA), German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment, Germany (BfR), Chemical Regulation Division, the United Kingdom (CRD), European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), and RIVM, the Netherlands was formed after the IESTI workshop to conduct a comprehensive impact assessment of the proposed changes of the IESTI equations.     

What’s missing from Ostrom? Combining design principles with the theory of sociocultural viability

Since 1990, Elinor Ostrom’s design principles for common property resource (CPR) institutions have been highly influential, offering a counter to pessimistic arguments about resource users’ prospects of cooperating to manage CPRs sustainably. However, the theoretical underpinnings of Ostrom’s theory have been criticised: as unfairly negative towards macro-level interventions; as utilising an overly narrow conceptualisation of rationality; and under appreciative of the role of power. These criticisms are examined using insights drawn from the theory of sociocultural viability (cultural theory, for short), a theory of plural rationality related to context. Utilising the case of Faroese whaling, the research aim is to assess the extent that cultural theory ameliorates criticisms laid at Ostrom’s design principles. It finds that Ostrom’s research trajectory was reaching the limits of methodological individualism’s ability to grasp rational behaviour and suggests the design principles may in effect be integrated with cultural theory.     

Drivers of local people’s participation in sustainable natural resource management: a case study in central Iran

The driving forces behind natural resource management (NRM) vary among countries. Most NRM programmes focus on biophysical drivers such as soil, water and vegetation, with little attention directed towards the nuanced sociocultural and religious drivers of sustainable natural resource management (SNRM) practices. This paper explores those understudied drivers that influence local people’s participation (LPP) in SNRM in Isfahan, Iran. Using a multi-stage stratified sampling method, we selected 200 natural resource experts and natural resource users to complete a questionnaire about their perceptions of SNRM. Results reveal that sociocultural and religious beliefs are the major drivers of SNRM. The results also indicate that subsidiary drivers include: a sense of responsibility towards SNRM; the conviction that natural resources belong to God and should therefore be preserved; participation to preserve natural resources because of training courses and media influence; a long-established custom of preserving natural resources; and the specific impact of environmental television programmes. Demographic analysis finds a significant relationship between educational level and LPP in SNRM. This study’s results therefore suggest that natural resource managers would benefit from a deeper understanding of the local sociocultural and religious contexts that motivate people to participate in SNRM.     

氟化工“三废”的资源化利用

结合我国氟化工行业发展现状,分析了含氟"三废"产生情况及处置方法的最新研究进展,并通过实际工程案例进行论述。氟化工生产过程污染物主要有含氟废气及副产氯化氢、含氟高沸物及含氟污泥等。通过将氯化氢用于工业清洗及制备氯化钙、氯化铝等化学品能够合理消耗副产盐酸。焚烧处理含氟有机废气产生的氟化氢气体经水洗后副产氢氟酸。含氟高沸物通过精馏分离出高沸物组分生产高附加值产品。含氟污泥可制成建筑材料,最优工业化利用途径仍在积极研究中。     

Reconciling local control with appropriate scale in Norwegian moose management

In a landscape of fragmented private ownership, the need to coordinate game management across large areas presents challenges for landowners and public agencies alike. This paper describes how a recent reorganization of moose management in Norway achieves landscape-level planning while maintaining a tradition of local management by hunting teams. These two seemingly contradictory imperatives – coordinating wildlife management across large areas while keeping benefits and control in the hands of local resource users – are resolved through a nesting of management institutions, wherein the state serves a regulatory function and mid-level government (the county) serves to facilitate inter-local cooperation. This paper documents how the system is structured and describes the balance of incentives that enable the system to work. Information was gathered via interviews with staff at the Norwegian Directorate for Nature Management (now called the Norwegian Environment Agency), with wildlife management officials at the municipal level, with hunters, and from the most recent regulatory documents.     

生态文明产权制度的界定、分类及框架研究

生态文明产权制度是生态文明制度体系建设的根基。生态文明产权制度可划分为自然资源产权制度、环境资源产权制度和气候资源产权制度三大类别。自然资源产权制度包含水权、林权、矿权、渔权和能权,环境资源产权制度包含排污权和生态权,气候资源产权制度包含碳排污权和碳汇。在大国责任的国际背景下,生态文明产权可用总量控制是硬性约束,必须以自然、环境和气候资源的产权总量控制为前提,确保全国总体生态水平在可预见的时间达到可控制的范围之内。有效地推进自然、环境和气候资源的初始产权界定,运用生态文明产权价格机制促进生态文明产权交易,并运用生态文明产权保护制度确保初始产权界定、产权交易机制和产权价格机制的顺利推进和开展。形成以产权总量控制为前提,以初始产权的界定和分配为基础,以产权交易机制为手段,以产权价格机制为核心,以产权保护制度为保障生态文明产权制度框架。     

2000—2014年中国经济系统物质流核算与资源产出率研究

本文利用经济系统物质流分析框架核算了我国2000—2014年的主要物质流、资源产出率等指标。结果表明：① 2000—2014年本地采掘物质量、进口量和本地处置后排放均有较快增长。2011—2014年本地采掘中生物质采掘量逐年稳步增长,非金属矿石和化石燃料采掘量处于下降趋势。本地处置后排放中空气排放物贡献了绝大部分比例并逐年增长,水污染排放物逐年下降。② 2000—2014年人均资源的采掘、投入和消耗量均有大幅增长,2014年人均物质消耗量比2000年增长1倍以上。资源产出率和单位GDP本地采掘、投入物质量处于波动式增长趋势,本地采掘每吨物质所贡献的GDP已连续三年超过资源产出率。③ 2014年中国资源产出率约为欧盟28国平均水平的1/4。2010年我国省级资源产出率差异较大,小部分地区已超过欧盟同期水平,但仍有大部分地区的资源产出率较低,未达到全国平均水平。     

高浓度J酸废液资源化技术研究

探讨了Ｎ２５３－煤油－Ｈ２ＳＯ４－ＮａＯＨ化学萃取－反萃取体系提取浓缩Ｊ酸废母液中间体的工艺特性,试验结果表明,通过萃取工艺,Ｊ酸废液中的ＣＯＤｃｒ去除率可达９５％,萃余液ＣＯＤｃｒ在５００￣２０００ｍｇ／Ｌ之间,色度去除率可达９５％,该工艺可使废母液中的回收物浓缩５－１０倍,萃取剂可以循环使用而不改变性质,损失较少。     

划分地下水水源地保护区的研究

从环境水文地质学的角度探讨地下水水源地保护区的划分,并提出局地服从区域、地面服从地下,以区定性,不以点定区等项划分原则及包气带防护能力评价,包气带粘性厚度等值线分区方法,并在唐山市城市地下水水源地保护区的划分中得到实际应用。