National pathways to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): A comparative review of scenario modelling tools

The recently-adopted global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will have significant implications for national development planning in both developed and developing countries in the post-2015 period to 2030. Integrated, nationally-owned SDG strategies will be at the centre of national efforts to implement the new sustainable development agenda. The long-run processes and systems perspective that are inherent in the SDGs present complex analytical problems for policymakers and analysts. Scenario analysis and quantitative modelling will be important analytical tools to support national sustainable development planning, and there is an increasingly sophisticated suite of models available to decision makers. This paper reviews and assesses a broad range of different quantitative models that have the potential to support national development planning for the SDGs. The study develops a typology and inventory of 80 different models, and then reviews the comparative strengths, weaknesses and general utility of different models through an initial screening and subsequent multi-criteria analysis of short-listed models. Current gaps in model capabilities are highlighted in the context of providing analytical support for national development planning for the SDGs. While some existing models are particularly relevant, it is unlikely that an ideal model can analyse all SDG targets and variables of interest within a single modelling framework. Top-down ‘macro framework’ models are likely to be more useful for undertaking system-level or economy-wide scenario analysis driven by the national long-term goals and targets, and for exploring trade-offs and synergies among sectors. Bottom-up sectoral models will be able to support far more detailed option-level impact analysis of concrete interventions, technologies and investments. Combining both approaches within an analytical framework will provide a robust approach for analysis and decision-making. The results highlight a range of potential gaps in current modelling capabilities, and provide some new tools to assist with model selection.     

Participatory modelling for sustainable development: Key issues derived from five cases of natural resource and disaster risk management

Stakeholder participation is considered a key principle for sustainable development in the context of natural resource and disaster risk management. Participatory modelling (PM) is an interactive and iterative process in which stakeholder involvement is supported by modelling and communication tools. Planning and decision-making for sustainable development (SD)integrate three substantive dimensions − social, ecological and economic. The procedural dimension of SD, however, is equally important, and here we see great potential for PM. In this study, we evaluate five PM research projects against criteria for the procedural dimension of SD. This provides a basis for identifying key issues and needs for further research into PM for SD. While the cases show great potential, especially for supporting knowledge integration, learning and transparent handling of values and perspectives, they indicate a particular need to develop PM in respect of organizational integration. This issue is closely connected to the possibility of effectively implementing PM in practice.     

HYDROLOGICAL UNDERSTANDING AND SOCIETAL ACTION1

ABSTRACT: Hydrology is both an applied practical science and a pure geophysical science. The goal of hydrology, as a geophysical science, is to achieve theories capable of explaining with satisfactory accuracy the phenomena of interest. Through the rapidly accelerating power and versatility of digital computing technology, theory development and application are immensely facilitated via increasingly sophisticated predictive modeling schemes, which are now the principal operating tools both for applied management hydrology and for basic geophysical hydrology. While this approach treats phenomena as classes or generalizations, social and behavioral scientists have long argued that human beings base their actions on percepts, i.e., on the concrete specifics of their experience. Thus, the commonly held ideal of basing policy, decisions, and public actions on the best possible science encounters a conflict in belief systems. A possible resolution of this dilemma lies in the use of observational components, which in concept-centered science serve as data to test or calibrate models. These components also serve as a great repository of natural experience that is closely attuned to the perceptual reality that propels societal action. Landscapes and sediments provide indices of real processes, whose occurrence can be expected by continuity to extend to present and future activity. More attention to research on such indices is warranted as a means of triggering perception-based action by responsible decision-makers. Grounded in reality, and tempered by their intrinsic fallibility, the scientifically powerful conceptual schemes (models) will then serve as guides to further action. The full societal benefit of hydrological science requires a balanced approach in which subdisciplines focused on environmental indices are afforded equal attention to those focused on conceptual idealization.     

EVALUATING THE PERSISTENCE OF RESIDENTIAL WATER CONSERVATION: A 1992–1997 PANEL STUDY OF A WATER UTILITY PROGRAM IN DELAWARE1

This study systematically evaluates residential consumer responses to a utility conservation initiative based on an econometric analysis of a sample of 510 households served by Artesian Water Company, Inc. (New Castle County of Delaware). Using a panel study approach covering the period from 1992 to 1997, this study shows that Artesian's water conservation program has had statistically significant and persistent impacts on residential water consumption.     

Development of Future Generations： Oriented Virtual Negotiation Support System for Intergenerational Conflict

Intergenerational conflict coordination is the fundamental requirement and core of sustainable development. In this paper, through the analysis of the future generations-oriented management mechanisms for intergenerational conflict, the idea of mechanisms and institution building for the coordination and management of intergenerational conflict is put forward. Furthermore, the future generations-oriented virtual negotiation support system （NSS） for intergenerational conflict is developed, built on the analysis of the process simulation of intergenerational wealth transfer, intergenerational equilibrium allocation of resources, and strategies for the mitigation and avoidance of intergenerational conflict, through the application of advanced IT technology. The virtual NSS for intergenerational conflict is helpful to the practical application of the sustainable development theory; on the other hand, it can be applied directly to the intergenerational equilibrium allocation of resources, national economic accounting, formulation of sustainable development strategies and other urgent national economic and social development issues. Finally, the sustainable development theory can be enriched and extended. Therefore, the development of the future generations-oriented virtual NSS for intergenerational conflict has certain theoretical and practical effects on the theory of sustainable development.     

Uncertainty,complexity and controversy in dolphin threat management: A role for post-normal science?

Managing fishing threats to populations of endemic, threatened Hector’s and Māui dolphins around New Zealand is a complex and controversial issue, underpinned by uncertain scientific knowledge. As such, it can be argued that it falls into the realm of post-normal science, which advocates transparency about uncertainties and stakeholder peer review of knowledge feeding into decision-making. This paper focuses on selected examples of modelling and risk assessment research relating to Hector’s and Māui dolphin threat management. It explores how knowledge is developed, shared and utilised by decision-makers, finding that uncertain scientific knowledge may be shared in ways that make it appear more certain, with some of the subjectivities involved in knowledge production hidden from view. Interviews with stakeholders illustrate how some stakeholders are aware of the subjectivities involved when uncertain knowledge underpins decision-making, so a lack of transparency may be leading to erosion of social trust in decisions made. This in turn can lead to a lack of support for dolphin conservation measures from key stakeholders such as the commercial fishing industry. The paper concludes that while moves towards increasing transparency and stakeholder involvement are apparent, a deeper embrace of post-normal science approaches to knowledge production and dissemination would contribute to effective dolphin threat management in New Zealand.     

国际粮食贸易背景下的市场整合与虚拟资源流动——以中国巴基斯坦大米市场为例

贸易自由化和区域经济一体化不仅会通过比较优势整合市场、提升效率,还会带来农产品贸易中虚拟资源的流动。以中国—巴基斯坦大米贸易为研究对象,使用两国大米贸易数据,首先检验中巴粮食市场整合程度,其次分析中巴大米贸易带来的虚拟水和虚拟土地的流动。结果表明：（1）中巴之间大米市场已经高度整合,且价格存在长期均衡,但巴基斯坦大米价格比中国波动大,其对中国大米的价格弹性为1.097;“一带一路”倡议带来了巴方大米价格7.8%的下降,增加了穷人的福利。（2）贸易带来了虚拟水土资源的流动。中国累计从巴基斯坦净进口大米354万t,相当于净进口国内52万hm²、巴基斯坦96.4万hm²耕地,以及国内34.4亿t、巴基斯坦101.7亿t水资源。中国应加大技术支持和扩散的力度,具有促进粮食安全,节约全球资源的意义。     

Conflicts and security in integrated water resources management

Water sector reforms based on the concept of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) are criticized for not considering context, local realities or legitimacy during the implementation of water sector reforms. Universal remedies of IWRM can thus lead to resistance, conflicts and ultimately failures of interventions. This paper examines how conflicts and disharmony can be addressed by IWRM's instruments. It conceptualizes institutional security as a highly relevant issue to be addressed during water management interventions. Further, the paper advocates a reform of the holistic concept of IWRM to incorporate ‘peace and security’ as a new pillar of water management based on a broad understanding of societal goals that are embedded in the principles of good governance and sustainable development. It also reviews recent criticism of and debates in IWRM and explains the advantages of expanding the normative idea behind it.     

Complementary safeguards for robust regional watershed governance in a federation: New York City and its municipal water supply

In federations such as the United States, governments at various levels are experimenting with new watershed governance arrangements to protect water quality for both ecosystem health and human consumption. Such arrangements may bring previously uncooperative governments together to credibly commit to resource protection under the auspices of new and intricate formal institutions. Given the risks of cooperation, theory indicates that a robust arrangement will contain means of holding governing actors accountable to each other. This paper examines a purportedly successful case, the New York City watershed governance arrangement, to identify how safeguards against intergovernmental opportunism promote lasting cooperation. Using the qualitative method of process tracing, this paper finds that the New York City watershed governance arrangement uses structural, judicial, and popular safeguards against opportunistic behaviors by governing actors that might threaten the resource or the arrangement. The results indicate that such safeguards are present and interact with other safeguards and rule institutions at the state and federal level to maintain compliance.     

我国城市化过程中水土资源利用问题的认识——以长江下游地区若干城市地区为例

改革开放以来,我国城市化过程出现快速发展时期,特别是长江下游地区(长江三角洲及其周边地区),由于人口与产业不断集聚,重大基础设施项目投资加大,道路网密度增加,开发区扩大,使得城市空间迭加扩展,造成了严重的水土资源利用失衡,生态环境日趋恶化,使本地区城市发展出现了许多新问题.以长江下游地区为例,对本区城市化过程中有关水土资源环境恶化、水污染增加、土地资源流失,以及城镇化速度过快的情况,作了深入分析论证,同时对长江下游地区水土资源合理开发利用与保护提出了新的思维、新的方法措施,特别是对如何加强长三角地区水质环境的整治提出了4点切实可行的办法与措施,为本地区的经济发展与生态安全提供科学依据.