Proportionate and disproportionate policy responses to climate change: core concepts and empirical applications

A fresh perspective on policy-making and planning has emerged which views disproportionate policy as an intentional policy response. A disproportionate policy response is understood to be a lack of ‘fit’ or balance between the costs of a public policy and the benefits that are derived from this policy, and between policy ends and means. This paper applies this new perspective on the proportionality of policy-making to the area of climate change. The first part of the paper discusses the underlying causes of disproportionate policy responses in broad terms and then applies the theoretical reasoning to understand the conditions in which they are likely to appear in relation to climate change. These conditions are hypothesized to relate to four main factors: economic considerations; levels of public demand; focusing events; and strategic considerations. It concludes with the suggestion that societal actors may be able to manipulate these four factors to encourage politicians to adopt policies that mitigate climate change more rapidly than is currently the case in most countries.     

船舶撞击下10 MW单桩基础风机动力响应特性分析

目的 探究风机在遭遇船舶撞击时的动力响应,以及不同工况下的失效模式。方法 采用 SACS 软件,建立DTU 10MW单桩基础风机的动力分析模型,并利用p-y曲线模拟桩土相互作用,计算不同撞击速度、撞击角度、风载方向作用下海上风机的动态响应,探究风机在停机工况和运行工况下的失效模式。结果 风机受风载作用时,最大机舱加速度和塔顶最大位移分别较无风载时增加了8.5%、68.1%。以5 000 t撞击船为例,风机在停机状态下,撞击速度超过2.13 m/s时,风机面临因机舱故障而引发的失效;风机在运行状态下,撞击速度超过1.88 m/s时,风机面临因挠度超过最大允许值而引发的失效。结论 有、无风载时,机舱加速度响应的差异不明显,而有风载时的塔顶位移较无风载时增长明显。根据风机在停机工况和运行工况下的失效模式,提出了相应的船舶撞击速度临界值。     

Monitoring toxics by group testing

Monitoring the environment for a large list of organic compounds present at low levels is costly. The primary purpose of such monitoring is to assure that hazardous levels of such compounds are not released into, or present in, the environment. Viewing this as a quality control problem, we suggest that samples from different sources can be composited using group testing procedures prior to analysis. Our purpose is to describe the basic concepts and suggest problems requiring study.     

Looking forward: Disasters at 40

This paper reflects on contemporary studies of and responses to disasters, highlighting the importance of historical, spatial, and intersectional modes of analysis, and draws on the author's ongoing research on Southern‐led and local community responses to displacement in the Middle East. Acknowledging the plurality of ‘international communities of response’, it begins by critiquing the depiction of selected responses to disasters as ‘positive’ ‘paradigm shifts’, including in reference to the ‘localisation of aid, and the United Nations’ Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan for Syria. Next it turns to three key themes that are central to disasters studies: migration; forced displacement; and Southern‐led responses to disasters. Among other things, the paper argues that exploring the principles and modalities of South–South cooperation, rather than promoting the incorporation of Southern actors into the ‘international humanitarian system’ via the localisation agenda, presents a critical opportunity for studies of and responses to disasters.     

Histopathological and biochemical alterations of the earthworm (Lumbricus Terrestris) as biomarker of soil pollution along Porsuk River Basin (Turkey)

This study investigated biomarker responses of the earthworm Lumbricus terrestris in order to evaluate the soil pollution along Porsuk River Basin. Samples consisted of animals from six sites that are agricultural regions and a forested control. Histopathological and biochemical alterations were examined. Significant histopathological alterations were observed in animals from three of the sampling sites. There was an enlargement of epithelial cell lining, mucus cell hyperplasia and increase in mucus secretion. Circular and longitudinal muscles lost their structural integrity. Chloragogenous tissue was dilated and vocuolized. Necrosis was observed in the cells and tissues of some affected worms. A load of heavy metals in tissues of animals was determined. Heavy metals were found to be accumulated particularly in longitudinal muscles of animals. CAT activity was found to be increased in animals from three of the experimental sites. GST activity was also increased in five sites while it was stable in one site. The results have shown that animals from locations particularly that are close to urbanized and industrialized regions were seriously affected from the soil pollution around the basin. These results are reflecting the biological effects of soil pollution around Porsuk River Basin on the indicator organism L. terrestris and constitute an early warning of ecological change in relation to human health.     

2005~2010年我国自然灾害救助应急响应的时间变化特征

自然灾害救助应急响应是减轻自然灾害风险的重要途径,也是政府的重要职责,2005年被纳入《国家自然灾害救助应急预案》,反映了我国自然灾害救助工作的发展变化和“以预防为主”的应急管理新思路。收集整理2005~2010年国家启动的历次自然灾害救助应急响应情况,对应急响应的时间变化特征进行分析讨论。结果表明：（1）2005~2010年,国家共针对130次重大灾害事件启动应急响应235次,各级别响应的比例与灾害发生的频次比例相当;（2）近年应急响应以洪涝、台风及其引发的滑坡和泥石流灾害为主,高发重发期在汛期（6～9月）,尤以7月为最;而旱灾、低温冷冻和雪灾以及风雹灾害的关键期分别为春夏秋三季、冬春季节和春末夏初;（3）应急响应特征研究启示减灾救灾工作要因时、因地、因灾制宜,并加快基于过程的灾害风险评估和脆弱性机理研究等 .     

Pros and cons of climate change in China

Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems,e.g.the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation,whereas in the Tibetan Plateau,the vegetation productivity increased,owing to the improved thermal resource.Climate change led to reduced precipitation in North and Northeast China and thus the reduced surface runoff.The public needs for energy were changed because of climate change,e.g.the shorter heating period in winter.Climate change profoundly influenced human health,pathophoresis and major projects by increasing extreme events,including frequency and magnitude,and causing more serious water shortage.Under the background of climate change,although the improved thermal resources can be helpful for extending the crop growth period,more extreme events may resulted in more instability in agricultural productivity.Not only did climate change indirectly affect the secondary and tertiary industries through the impacts on agriculture and natural resources,but also climate change mitigation measures,such as carbon tax,tariff and trading,had extensive and profound influences on the socioeconomic system.Further analysis indicated that the impact of climate change presented significant regional differences.The impact had its pros and cons,while the advantages outweighed the disadvantages.Based on the above analysis on the impacts of climate change,we put forward suggestions on coping with climate change.First,scientifically dealing with climate change will need to seek advantages while avoiding the disadvantages of climate change in order to achieve the orderly adaptation to climate change,which is characterized with"Overall best,long-term benefit."Second,quantitative adaptation should be given more attention,e.g.proposing operational schemes and predictable goals and using uncertainty analysis on adaptation measures.Third,more active coping strategy should be adopted to enhance China's future comprehensive competitiveness.The strategies include but are not limited to gradually adjusting the industrial structure,intensifying the research and development(RD)of emission reduction technology and actively responding to the influence of carbon tax,tariff and trading on socioeconomic development in China.     

秦岭植被覆盖时空变化及其对气候变化与人类活动的双重响应

论文基于MODIS-NDVI数据、DEM及气象数据,辅以趋势分析、多元回归残差法、偏最小二乘回归法,反演了秦岭地区2000—2015年植被覆盖度及分析了其“格局—过程—趋势”的变化特征,探究了其对气候变化与人类活动的双重响应机制。结果表明：1）秦岭地区近16 a来植被覆盖度呈显著上升趋势,增速为2.77%/10 a,呈“中间高、周边低,西部高、东部低,南坡高、北坡低”的空间格局,植被覆盖度随海拔的升高在2 200 m左右达到最大,700~3 200 m达0.7以上,1 300~2 700 m达0.9以上,3 400 m以上为0.5以下的低值区;2）秦岭地区的植被覆盖与气候因子的响应关系存在明显的空间差异,对气温的响应总体上没有明显的时滞效应,而与降水的响应存在以滞后1个月为主的时滞效应;3）人类活动对秦岭地区植被变化的作用日趋增强,且以正向作用为主,主要分布在东部地区,而负向作用则分布于中部和西部地区;4）秦岭地区植被变化是气候变化和人类活动共同作用的结果,影响因子对植被覆盖变化的解释能力依次为人类活动>降水>气温>潜在蒸散量。     

燕麦对盐碱胁迫的反应和适应性

研究了自然盐碱胁迫对燕麦植株生长、水势、渗透调节物质质量分数以及对K 、Na 选择性吸收的影响,结果表明,随着土壤盐碱胁迫的增强燕麦植株生长受抑,叶片和根系的水势较对照均有所降低,其中裸燕麦较皮燕麦水势下降幅度大,表明裸燕麦比皮燕麦对盐碱胁迫更敏感。燕麦叶片内脯氨酸和可溶性糖累积。随着土壤盐碱胁迫的增强植株对Na 的吸收增加,对K 的吸收受到抑制,从而使w(Na )/w(K )和SNa K 值升高。在盐碱胁迫下,燕麦是以合成和积累有机溶质(脯氨酸和可溶性糖)以及吸收和积累无机离子(Na )来进行渗透调节,以适应盐碱胁迫。     

小麦铝抗性和敏感品系对铝胁迫的生理生化反应

研究了冬小麦Triticum aestivvum L.铝抗性品系T202和铝敏感品系T105幼苗经0，50μmol L^-1，75μmol L^-1，100μmol L^-1和150μmol L^-1铝处理后根部的生理生化变化．结果表明：小麦根生长被严重抑制；酸性磷酸酶活性增强，磷代谢激活；硝酸还原酶受到一定程度的抑制；葡萄糖-6-磷酸脱氢酶对铝浓度极其敏感；葡萄糖含量下降；而膜脂过氧化产物丙二醛(MDA)含量上升，超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)的活性升高和还原型谷胱甘肽(GSH)的含量下降．证实：铝胁迫造成了氧化伤害，激活了植物体内的抗氧化系统．分析还表明，T202耐铝的各项指标优于T105，前者的代谢酶活性对铝胁迫的反应更为迅捷，并有良好的能量储备和调动机制来抵御铝胁迫及由此产生的胁迫．图8参14