石化装置安全仪表系统KooN表决结构的误跳车率定量分析

为了更准确量化安全仪表系统的误跳车率,基于联锁回路SIF中传感器、逻辑解算器、执行机构引发误跳车的不同失效机理和模型,考虑共因失效对误跳车率的影响,提出1种更符合实际并适用于异型KooN结构的新子系统误跳车率计算模型（STR of Non-identical Redundant System,SNRS）。针对SIF回路的误跳车率计算,建立了1种分析安全联锁SIF回路误跳车率（Reliability based Spurious Trip,RST）的计算框架。研究结果表明:以某聚丙烯装置第三反应器保护系统为例,将SNRS和RST方法与目前主流的多种计算方法进行数值计算对比,验证了方法的有效性,能够有效进行定量分析。     

Are older drivers’ driving patterns during an on-road driving task representative of their real-world driving patterns?

Abstract

Objective: The current study investigated whether older drivers’ driving patterns during a customized on-road driving task were representative of their real-world driving patterns.

Methods: Two hundred and eight participants (male: 68.80%; mean age?=?81.52 years, SD?=?3.37 years, range?=?76.00–96.00 years) completed a customized on-road driving task that commenced from their home and was conducted in their own vehicle. Participants’ real-world driving patterns for the preceding 4-month period were also collected via an in-car recording device (ICRD) that was installed in each participant’s vehicle.

Results: During the 4-month period prior to completing the on-road driving task, participants’ median real-world driving trip distance was 2.66?km (interquartile range [IQR]?=?1.14–5.79?km) and their median on-road driving task trip distance was 4.41?km (IQR?=?2.83–6.35?km). Most participants’ on-road driving task trip distances were classified as representative of their real-world driving trip distances (95.2%, n?=?198).

Conclusions: These findings suggest that most older drivers were able to devise a driving route that was representative of their real-world driving trip distance. Future research will examine whether additional aspects of the on-road driving task (e.g., average speed, proportion of trips in different speed zones) are representative of participants’ real-world driving patterns.     

供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局研究

为了提高管网地震监测点布局的准确性和合理性,基于管网微观水力计算模型和动态分级法,提出供水管网震后流量监测点的动态分级优化布局模型。首先,利用管网微观水力计算模型计算管段流量的影响系数,构建管段的影响系数矩阵,并利用信息熵确定管段权重;其次,标准化处理影响系数矩阵,通过聚类迭代提出供水管网地震流量监测点优化布局的动态分级方法,对供水管网震后流量监测点进行优化布置分级评定;最后,根据工程实例进行方法实践,结果表明:供水管网中的管线分类较为科学合理,地震监测点在供水管网上分布也比较均匀,而且该模型在一定程度上消除了人为因素的影响,保障了震时管网的监控效果和日常建设的合理性。     

基于改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的职业病预测研究

为了更准确地预测职业病,在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上,提出改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型,在传统的GM(1,1)模型中引入弱化算子,将紧邻均值与原始数据之间的线性假设改为非线性假设,提高曲线的拟合度。以2005—2014年的全国职业病例数为研究对象,进行数据拟合和预测分析,其中以2014年职业病例数作为验证数据,并利用后验差比值和小误差概率2个参数,检验该改进模型的预测精度。由应用实例的分析结果可知:在职业病发病趋势的预测方面,改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的预测精度提高到一级,曲线拟合度较高,预测得到2015年的职业病例数为34 900例。     

基于SVM的矿井通风阻力系数影响因素分析与预测

矿井通风阻力系数是通风安全最重要的基础参数之一,为了实现矿井通风阻力系数简单准确地预测,提出了利用支持向量机（SVM）来预测矿井通风阻力系数的方法。通过分析影响因子与矿井通风阻力系数的相关性关系,并利用MATLAB逐步建立单影响因素与矿井通风阻力系数、多影响因素与矿井通风阻力系数之间的SVM预测模型,对比分析各预测模型的相对误差,确定最佳矿井通风阻力系数预测模型,即当输入模型影响因素为巷道断面积、周长和支护方式时,预测相对误差小于10%的样本数占测试样本的76%,相对误差小于20%的样本数占测试样本的90%。结果表明:该预测方法在矿井通风阻力系数预测中是可行的,并具较高的准确性。     

A multi-objective design optimisation of eco-friendly aircraft: the impact of noise fees on airplanes sustainable development

The current work deals with multi-objective optimisations including financial merit factors in the multi-disciplinary conceptual design of a commercial aircraft with a specific focus on noise social cost. The results of optimisations using financial and performance-oriented objective functions have been analysed and combined in a multi-objective optimisation problem using a three-dimensional objective vector. The main novelty of the present work is the analysis of social cost noise fees effectiveness integrated in financial models embracing a wider group of stakeholders’ interests. The foundations of this research lie on the air traffic increase envisaged in the next decades and the contextual growth of the urban areas nearby airport facilities. This scenario requires the aeronautical industry to handle the environment challenge taking into account all the social and economic effects. Indeed, the consolidated technology has approached a saturation point, therefore breakthrough concepts and configurations are mandatory. This matter is addressed as a highly multi-disciplinary problem within conceptual design framework. The financial model proposed is shown to highlight the need of appropriate noise fees as instruments to push all stakeholders towards a technology radical renewal and encourage the aeronautical industry towards a shared strategy in the development of an eco-friendly commercial aviation system.     

The humanitarian common logistic operating picture: a solution to the inter‐agency coordination challenge

Although significant progress has been made in developing the practice of humanitarian logistics, further improvements in efficiency and effectiveness have the potential to save lives and reduce suffering. This paper explores how the military/emergency services’ concept of a common operating picture (COP) can be adapted to the humanitarian logistics context, and analyses a practical and proven approach to addressing the key challenge of inter‐agency coordination and decision‐making. Successful adaptation could provide the mechanism through which predicted and actual demands, together with the location and status of material in transit, are captured, evaluated, and presented in real time as the basis for enhanced decision‐making between actors in the humanitarian supply network. Through the introduction of a humanitarian logistics COP and its linkages to national disaster management systems, local communities and countries affected by disasters and emergencies will be better placed to oversee and manage their response activities.     

A comparison of pretreatments on release of sugars from sweet sorghum bagasse for bioethanol production

Dilute acid pretreatment and steam pretreatment were evaluated for maximum sugars release and ethanol production from sweet sorghum bagasse (SSB). The fermentation potential of the condensate and hydrolysate obtained from steam pretreatment (10 kg/cm², 10 minutes) and dilute acid hydrolysis (1% (w/w) sulphuric acid, 25% substrate loading) respectively, was checked with Pichia stipitis NCIM 3497 and Debaryomyces hansenii sp. Ethanol production and yield using acid hydrolysate was higher with Debaryomyces hansenii sp. (28.4 g/L and 0.37 g/g respectively) as compared with Pichia stipitis NCIM 3497 (21.9 g/L and 0.29 g/g respectively).     

广州夏季办公室内细颗粒中多环芳烃污染特征研究

大部分的都市办公人群每天在办公室至少度过8 h。而室外环境的渗透、办公室内吸烟、办公设备使用和中央通风系统均可能导致细颗粒物及多环芳烃(PAHs)在室内积聚而造成微环境污染。2015年5—6月,在广州市3种不同功能区(商住区、高新产业区、工业区)共选取了14间不同类型的办公室,对其室内外PM_(2.5)和多环芳烃进行同步监测。结果表明,(1)14间中有12间办公室内的PM_(2.5)浓度水平高于世界卫生组织(WHO)的推荐值25μg·m-3;(2)与国内外类似研究相比,办公室内外∑16PAHs及Ba P-eq的监测浓度水平均较低,并呈现一致规律:文印>室外>吸烟>多人>单人>无窗(无人),其中Ba P-eq低于欧盟规定的安全限值1 ng·m-3;(3)文印工作和吸烟行为与室内PM_(2.5)和PAHs浓度升高有密切关系,分别对5环和4环PAHs贡献明显;(4)其他无明显内源的办公室的细颗粒中PAHs污染在监测期间主要来源于室外贡献。     

中国典型河湖水体铅的水生生物安全基准与生态风险评价

采用物种敏感度排序法(SSR)对我国铅的淡水水生生物安全基准进行推导,并以太湖为例进行了流域水生生物安全基准推导。对于难以获得的本土生物毒性数据,开展了相应的毒性试验。获得了我国国家与太湖流域铅的水生生物安全基准值,基准最大浓度(CMC)分别为63.92、104.26μg·L-1,基准连续浓度(CCC)分别为1.21、4.06μg·L-1。同时,对我国主要河流以及太湖流域进行了铅的生态风险评价,联合概率曲线法显示影响5%水生生物种类的概率分别为66.22%和43.19%,熵值法则显示中国主要河流存在较大的铅暴露风险,因此,我国铅的潜在生态风险较大,主要河流与太湖流域存在铅污染问题。