基于事故理论的城市轨道交通风险评价模型研究

笔者分析了城市轨道交通事故,在分析我国其他行业事故分类的基础上,确定城市轨道交通事故分类标准,即重大事故、大事故、险性事故和一般事故,并将不同事故分类情况及专家判断评分,按事故的大小不同换算成可以计算的计算尺度,根据事故种类不同计算出事故折算因子,根据风险理论的评价方法,建立了地铁风险评价模型,对地铁的危险性进行量化定级,并通过具体实例进行综合分析评价,该风险评价模型具有一定的工程意义。     

基于风险的检验(RBI)在国内合成氨装置中的应用

利用API581基于风险的检验原理,采用RISKWISE分析软件对九江石化合成氨装置中的设备和管道进行了风险评估;并在装置采用的工艺、不同装置的设备和管道的失效机理和计算出的风险分布这3方面,将其风险评估结果与国内兄弟单位完成的其他合成氨装置的风险评估结果进行了比对;其结果体现了我国目前合成氨装置的设备和管道风险的大致分布,可供我国其他合成氨装置的风险评估参考,也为制定我国合成氨装置基于风险检验的法规标准提供了相关数据;同时,对国内采用针对装置的基于风险的检验的新模式进行了探讨。     

危险货物道路运输系统的风险评价

分析了危险货物道路运输系统的风险影响因素,在此基础上建立了风险评价指标体系,并采用专家咨询法确定了各指标的权重,提出了使用模糊数学综合评价法对危险货物道路运输系统进行风险评价,并通过实例对评价模型进行了验证.结果表明,利用模糊综合评价的方法对危险货物道路运输系统的风险进行研究,可以为危险货物道路运输企业和交通安全监管部门对危险货物道路运输采取有效的安全控制措施,提供有益的参考.     

Demonstrating Floodplain Uncertainty Using Flood Probability Maps1

Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality.     

Disaster reduction,loss and damage data,and the post-2015 international policy agenda

Disaster risk management, particularly management of climate-related risks, has become central to the international policy agenda. Reducing hazard-related loss and damage relies heavily on scientific inputs. Science, in turn, relies on data—in this case 1) risk-related data on hazards, exposure and vulnerability, and 2) data on associated loss and damage outcomes. The latter, data on losses and damage, are also post-2015 international policy outcome indicators at the highest level, required for countries’ monitoring of progress in reducing disaster risk, adapting to climate change, and achieving sustainable development. Although the quantity and accessibility of loss and damage data are improving, a number of issues continue to constrain their potential. These include needs for more consistent cataloguing of hazards and extreme events, more systematic and accurate documentation of per-event losses and damage, more precise cross-referencing of hazard events with associated loss and damage, and improved standardization and interoperability among databases. We identify measures for improvement in this regard, both for research purposes and for post-2015 international policy implementation.     

可持续发展实验区灾害风险定量估算方法研究

作者将探索性数据分析方法引入区域灾害风险的定量估算，系统地建立了区域灾害风险的定量估算方法。计算实例表明，文中给出的方法可便捷地用于可持续发展实验区灾害风险评估。     

Using participatory geographic approaches for urban flood risk in Santiago de Chile: Insights from a governance analysis

Studies based on information acquired by participative geographic approaches have sought to cope with emergency situations and disasters such as floods. However, the impact of these approaches to flood risk governance systems in order to understand these types of events as a complete risk cycle is still not clear. This paper focuses on analysing the governance possibilities of using participative geographic information like volunteered and public participatory geographic information for flood risk reduction in the case of Santiago de Chile, a city which regularly experiences urban floods during rainy seasons. Based on in-depth interviews and document analysis, our study indicates that a relevant part of the current information used for flood risk reduction efforts is provided to local and regional authorities by the affected population. Though, local actors are not recognized by central agencies as valid agents for the production of official information. Moreover, there are neither instances of communication or deliberation with the community, which reduces the capacity of local actors to discuss possible solutions. Participative geographic instruments are seen as potential mechanisms to strengthen work relations among local actors and authorities, by enhancing new logics for producing and sharing information. The impacts for the current risk governance system though can be diverse depending on the participants' level of commitment of participants and the political relations between actors and agencies. Considered as merely data acquisition and analysis mechanisms, participative instruments reproduce the existing hierarchical top-down structures. Furthermore, local-based approaches can enhance local work, support local diagnostics and increase the decision capacity of citizens.     

丁苯橡胶生产过程中不稳定因素分析及对策

针对丁二烯自聚物闪燃爆炸和后处理胶粒塑化着火的形成机理、形成条件、影响因素进行了分析,并提出了防范措施和应急处理办法。     

Testes mass in megachiropteran bats varies in accordance with sperm competition theory

Sperm competition is a widespread phenomenon influencing a range of characters, including investment in gonadal tissue. Conspecific proximity is one factor which can influence the risk of sperm competition and hence testicular investment, and decreased confidence of paternity may be one cost of group living. Aspects of female biology may also influence spermatogenic investment and sperm morphology. This study examines the associations between relative testes mass and roost-group size across 17 species of Megachiroptera. Associations between breeding season duration and investment in spermatogenesis are also examined, as are associations between female reproductive tract dimensions and testes mass and dimensions of spermatozoa across all bats. Relative testes mass was significantly positively associated with roost-group size at a species level and after appropriate phylogenetic control (pairwise comparisons and comparison of independent contrasts). There were no significant relationships between breeding season duration and relative testes mass. Across all bats, neither testes mass nor sperm length were significantly related to dimensions of the female tract. The results are discussed in the context of sperm competition. Received: 7 January 1998 / Accepted after revision: 8 August 1998