合肥市场6种淡水鱼体内Cu、Pb和Cd的分布及食用风险

重金属沿食物链传递并最终在人体中富集的事实已经得到越来越多的重视和研究.从合肥市场采集鲢鱼、鲈鱼、鳜鱼、鳊鱼、鲫鱼和草鱼,研究Cu、Pb和Cd在这6种鱼体内的分布和食用风险.结果表明:鲢鱼、鲈鱼、鳜鱼、鳊鱼、鲫鱼和草鱼的肌肉中w(Cu)、w(Pb)和w(Cd)均低于我国NY 5073—2006《无公害食品水产品中有毒有害物质限量》、GB 2762—2005《食品中污染物限量》及澳大利亚国家卫生和医学研究理事会制定的人体消费卫生标准,其总重金属食入健康风险数值也小于国际辐射防护委员会(ICRP)推荐的最大可接受水平5.0×10-5 a-1,说明合肥市场上这6种淡水鱼的肌肉通过食入途径所产生的Cu、Pb和Cd健康风险均在可接受水平.      

基于AGA-BP神经网络的采空区危险性评价

针对采空区危险性评价的影响因素众多且关系复杂的特点,提出了基于AGA-BP神经网络算法评价采空区危险性。将岩体结构、地质构造、岩石抗压强度等13个影响因子作为神经网络输入,采空区危险性等级作为输出,建立一个采空区危险性评价的BP神经网络模型;采用自适应遗传算法(AGA)对BP网络的初始权值和阈值进行全局寻优,将寻优结果回代入网络中进行训练并预测得出采空区危险性等级;利用其它智能算法与该预测结果做出比较,以验证AGA-BP算法的有效性及优越性。结果表明:该算法的优化效果明显,同时在训练时间与预测精度上较其它智能算法有突出的优势,是一种在采空区危险性评价方面值得推广的新方法。     

公路隧道水害倾向性分级的Bayes判别法及应用

为提高公路隧道整体安全性能,保障人员安全,减少财产损失,避免公路隧道水害事故的发生,将Bayes判别理论应用于公路隧道水害倾向性判别和分级中。采用影响隧道水害发生的隧道区渗透系数、降水情况、单位涌水量、构造断裂带类型、围岩分级、隧道施工情况、防排水措施情况等7项指标作为基本判别因子;将公路隧道水害倾向性分为4个等级作为Bayes判别分析的4个正态总体。以采自典型的20组公路隧道的实测数据为训练样本,建立公路隧道水害倾向性分级的Bayes判别函数。对训练后的模型运用交叉确认估计法进行验证,然后运用该模型对6条待检验的公路隧道样本的水害倾向性进行分级。研究结果表明:构建的Bayes判别分析模型误判率极低,分级效果合理有效,可以运用于公路隧道水害倾向性的分级中,有利于公路隧道水害的预防和治理。     

电力建设工程重大危险源动态风险界定及级别划分

针对电力建设工程中对危险源动态风险研究不足和混淆重大危险源概念导致的危险源难于分级管理与控制的问题,通过分析相关法律、规范等界定了电力建设工程施工作业场所重大危险源的概念,引入了危险源动态风险系数的概念,从系统安全的角度确定了动态风险系数的19个影响因素,基于此改进了LEC评价法,并划分了施工作业场所重大危险源级别。最后,结合工程实例说明了工程施工作业场所重大危险源定义和动态风险系数引入的必要性,测算了危险源实际风险度,并根据实际风险的划分结果建立了“3+2+1”危险源控制模式,实现了对作业场所重大危险源的有效控制。     

城市旅游安全指标体系的构建及实证研究——以杭州为例

旅游者在旅行游览过程中会面临各种安全风险,城市旅游安全管理水平决定了控制和降低风险的能力。首先基于模糊层次分析法构建了城市旅游安全评价的指标体系,随后通过对在杭州居住10年以上、长期从事旅游安全管理的专家进行问卷调查,并对调研数据进行分析,结果表明:杭州市旅游安全风险为中等,风险主要来自灾害性天气,建筑物和娱乐器械的可靠性,以及水源污染等方面;最后,针对上述风险,提出了相应的改进建议。     

煤矿作业人员系统风险知觉能力量化分析

为了定量分析煤矿作业人员风险知觉能力,采用Wickens模型分析风险知觉能力和人因失误作用关系,基于此,结合模糊痕迹理论,提出了基于三角模糊数的信号检测理论,从危险信号辨识敏感性(α)和反应偏好(β)两个指标对煤矿作业人员风险知觉能力进行评价。以某煤矿机电作业人员为例,设计调查问卷,并利用基于三角模糊数的信号检测理论对机电作业人员风险知觉能力进行分析。结果表明,所提出方法可用于评价煤矿井下作业系统中人员的风险知觉能力,能为提升煤矿作业人员风险知觉能力提供参考。     

Assessment and management of urbanization-induced ecological risks

The urban ecological risk incurred during the processes of urbanization has been constantly accumulating, creating a severe challenge for China to achieve sustainable urban development. At present, research on systematic evaluation of urban ecological risks is still inadequate, especially at an urban ecosystem level. In this special issue, we use Xiamen City as an example to identify the sources and receptors of urban ecological risks, to develop a methodology system of urban ecological risk assessment, and to propose a method for the management of urban ecological risks. This special issue contains 11 research articles resulting from a comprehensive research project funded by China’s National Natural Science Foundation. The innovations reported in this special issue include a framework of urban ecological risk assessment and a standardized procedure for carrying out urban ecological risk assessment using multiple stressors and endpoints.     

我国地表水中磷酸三苯酯的多层次生态风险评估

磷酸三苯酯(triphenyl phosphate,TPP)在电缆材料、塑料制品中被大量使用,是地表水中检出频率最高的有机磷酸酯类阻燃剂之一,近年来受到广泛关注。本文通过文献检索TPP的地表水环境暴露浓度以及对水生生物的毒性效应浓度,利用风险商(hazard quotient,HQ)和概率生态风险评价法(probabilistic ecological risk assessments,PERA)对我国主要地表水中的TPP进行多层次生态风险评价。结果显示,TPP在我国地表水中的浓度为0.2～96.3 ng·L~(-1),以生存为测试终点的急性毒性数据推导出的预测无效应浓度(predicted no effect concentration,PNEC)为36.49μg·L~(-1),而以繁殖、发育和生长等为测试终点的慢性毒性数据推导出的PNEC值为1.30μg·L~(-1)。基于急、慢性毒性数据计算的风险商均小于0.1。我国地表水中TPP对0.1%到1%的水生生物造成繁殖、发育和生长等慢性毒性影响的概率分别为1.40%和0.04%,存在较低的潜在生态风险。     

Taking stock of community-based flood risk management in Malawi: different stakeholders,different perspectives

Current flood risk strategies in Malawi are characterized by community-based flood risk management (CB-FRM), even though studies explicitly documenting evidence of successful CB-FRM remain limited. This paper investigates the realities and challenges of CB-FRM as seen through a lens of different stakeholders. In order to capture the experiences of CB-FRM, a predominantly qualitative research framework was developed. In 2016, 11 focus group discussions with stakeholder groups (local communities, local government and non-governmental organisations) were held. Additionally, informal discussions, field visits, a short survey and an extensive desk study were undertaken. The findings were analysed according to the major themes that emerged related to the realities and challenges of specific stakeholder groups. Although response and relief still remain prominent components of CB-FRM in Malawi, a number of mitigation and preparedness activities is observed. However, a lack of in-country resources, relief-oriented aid approaches and an ‘aid dependency’ syndrome represent obstacles. Different stakeholder groups share similar challenges in terms of financing, participation, decentralised governance and project management. Lack of project sustainability and localised ownership also emerged as major challenges. The identified challenges shed light on the frontiers and directions in which improvements are needed, thus offering a valuable contribution to the existing knowledgebase.     

Changes in transport accessibility as a result of flooding: a case study of the Mazovia Province (Eastern Poland)

This paper presents the results of research investigating the impact of flooding on the temporal aspect of transport accessibility at national, regional and local levels in the Mazovia Province – an administrative region in Poland. For the purposes of this study the authors measured the theoretical journey times by private transport between settlement units for two variants: journeys made under normal circumstances, that is, without a flood; and journeys made during a flood event, which would necessitate diversions to avoid flooded road sections. This allowed the theoretical journey time differences to be calculated. It was assumed that vehicles move at the highest permissible speed along routes allowing the shortest travel times. The methods of accessibility assessment employed in this paper are based on distance measurements and use isochrones and a cumulative approach. Analysis carried out by the authors has shown that for interregional, intraregional and local journeys, the flooding of a part of the Mazovia region results in changes in travel times, but their absolute and relative magnitudes vary widely. It was found that in the case of national scale journeys the majority of relative journey time increases were no greater than three times the normal duration, while on a local scale they do not exceed 75%. For areas with a high risk of flooding there should be obligatory analyses of changes in transport accessibility; this would facilitate effective flood risk management. Appropriate traffic management in crisis situations would facilitate emergency and rescue services and help inhabitants and any other persons in flooded areas.