Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR KARST AQUIFERS: (2) SOLUTE-TRANSPORT MODELING

Ground-water flow and solute-transport simulation modeling are major components of most exposure and risk assessments of contaminated aquifers. Model simulations provide information on the spatial and temporal distributions of contaminants in subsurface media but are difficult to apply to karst aquifers in which conduit flow is important. Ground-water flow and solute transport in karst conduits typically display rapid-flow velocities, turbulent-flow regimes, concentrated pollutant-mass discharge, and exhibit open-channel or closed-conduit flow. Conventional ground-water models, dependent on the applicability of Darcy`s law, are inappropriate when applied to karst aquifers because of the (1) nonapplicability of Darcian-flow parameters, (2) typically nonlaminar flow regime, and (3) inability to locate the karst conduits through which most flow and contaminant transport occurs. Surface-water flow and solute-transport models conditioned on a set of parameters determined empirically from quantitative ground-water tracing studies may be effectively used to render fate-and-transport values of contaminants in karst conduits. Hydraulic-flow and geometric parameters developed in a companion paper were used in the surface-water model, TOXI5, to simulate hypothetical slug and continuous-source releases of ethylbenzene in a karst conduit. TOXI5 simulation results showed considerable improvement for predicted ethylbenzene-transport rates and concentrations over qualitative tracing and analytical ground-water model results. Ethylbenzene concentrations predicted by TOXI5 simulations were evaluated in exposure and risk assessment models.     

monitoring bioaccumulation of contaminants in the belted kingfisher (ceryle alcyon)

The belted kingfisher (Ceryle alcyon), acommon piscivore in the eastern United States, hasbecome a common endpoint in ecological riskassessments (ERA) because of their high consumptionof potentially contaminated aquatic prey. Whilebioaccumulation data and biosurveys may be used tosupport conclusions of ERAs for kingfishers, thereare currently no published data on contaminantconcentrations in kingfishers. Additionally,methods available for collecting biological samples(e.g., feathers, eggs, food debris, etc.) fromkingfisher burrows can be detrimental to thereproductive success of the birds. We present amethod for obtaining samples from burrows during orfollowing the nesting season. The method wasapplied to kingfisher burrows on the Oak RidgeReservation (ORR) in eastern Tennessee. Feathers,eggshells, and nestlings were collected from burrows and analyzed. In addition, carcasses ofthree adult kingfishers found dead on the ORR wereanalyzed. Metals and radionuclides were accumulatedby both juvenile and adult birds. Body burdens ofcadmium, lead, and cesium-137 in adult birds were belowlevels associated with toxicity. Concentrations of selenium and mercury were observed at potentiallytoxic levels. Contaminants in eggshells andnestling feathers indicate exposure, however, thereis insufficient information to evaluate thetoxicological significance of this contamination.National Laboratory Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed for the U.S. Department of Energy by Lockheed Martin Energy Research Corp. under contract DE-AC05-96OR22464     

易燃易爆物品环境风险评价及危害范围的计算确定

随着石油化学工业的迅速发展，研究易燃、易爆物品的环境风险，对其进行风险评价，变得越来越重要。而危害范围的确定，对环境风险评价结果及降低风险所采取措施的合理性和可行性，起着决定性作用。现以一实例，通过计算，介绍易燃、易爆物品、如汽、柴油、液化气储罐的环境风险评价中危害范围的确定。     

销毁遗弃化学武器的环境风险评价方法研究

为履行《禁止化学武器公约》，各缔约国销毁化学武器的工作已启动。根据当前世界上化学武器的销毁情况，并针对二战期间在中国遗弃的化学武器的特点，给出了一套适应化学武器销毁流程的环境风险评价方法和技术。这套方法对将在我国进行的销毁遗弃化学武器风险评价工作有一定的实际意义。     

定量风险评价标准探讨

围绕定量评价标准对风险的度量和制定风险评价标准的基本原则等方面的进展和存在的问题进行了初步的探讨，分析归纳了国处有着的个人风险和社会风险标准，提出具有重大危害性的工业设施对员工或公众造成的风险，不应显著高于人们在日常生活中接触到其他风险；每年１０＾－６的死亡风险是可以忽略不计的个人风险水平等观点。     

环境影响评价中的"风险评价"实例

环境风险评价在当今环境影响评价中逐渐引起重视，通过对年产30万t磷酸及年产60万t磷铵项目中设计的磷石膏渣场进行的风险评价实例，运用风险评价方法进行了事故分析，并预测了事故发生的风险及后果，提出减缓措施，为项目安全运行提供一定理论依据，同时可为类似项目的风险评价提供参考。     

区域环境风险研究进展探讨

主要围绕国内外在区域环境风险领域的研究进展、趋势与不足进行分析评述,在此基础上提出了进行区域环境风险水平及阈值研究,并进行动态调控的研究新思路。     

环境风险评价中若干问题探讨

社会经济的高速发展,也诱发了新的环境风险可能性的发生,特别是近年来的多种环境风险灾害事故的发生已引起了各国和国际组织的普遍关注。环境风险评价与环境风险管理已成为保护生态环境、维护公众健康的重要内容和制定决策的重要依据。文章结合目前环境风险评价的发展,探讨有关两大类环境风险评价(突发性与非突发性)以及环境风险评价与安全评价的区别,环境风险评价评估标准以及环境风险评价与城市环境管理的一些问题。     

赣南数字地震台网近震分析与震情速报

震相识别与分析是地震预报与速报的基础.为识别赣南地区的震相,用震例统计和实例说明了不同距离,不同方位,不同类型的地震震相特征、地震震相与爆破波形的区别,并阐述了如何快速、准确地对有感地震进行速报.