基于核密度估计的清代中国自然灾害时空分布特征

基于《清史·灾赈志》中的历史灾害信息,提取清代（1644-1911年）自然灾害共24 537县次,重建逐年灾害频次序列,以核密度估计法对5类主要灾害（水灾、旱灾、蝗灾、疫灾、冷害）的空间分布特征进行分析。结果表明:清代自然灾害频次序列没有明显的趋势性特征,而体现为阶段性波动,基于灾害频次30年滑动平均值可提取出4个峰值时段（1644-1673、1721-1750、1812-1841和1872-1901年）;相比于现代,清代灾害类型更加集中在农业灾害,最为多发的是水灾和旱灾,合计占总数的近80%,其次是蝗灾、疫灾和冷害;灾害最为多发的高风险区分布在黄淮海平原和长江三角洲,前者集中了水灾、旱灾、蝗灾的极端多发区,后者除了水旱多发,还是疫灾和冷害的极端多发区; 4个峰值时段的灾种类型组合和灾害多发区均有明显差异,时空变化受到致灾因子、暴露度和脆弱性因素的共同作用。上述工作有助于更好地认识历史灾害发生规律,对于当前及未来的防灾减灾工作具有重要参考价值。     

Citizen feedback in a fragile setting: social accountability interventions in the primary healthcare sector in Sierra Leone

Fragile and conflict‐affected states are frequently characterised by their inability to fulfil three core governance functions: provision of security, effective delivery of basic public goods and services, and managing political participation and accountability. This article explores the utility of social accountability interventions in fragile environments. Successful social accountability interventions can lead to joint examinations of public service standards by service‐users and providers, resulting in collaborative improvement efforts. The few available studies of such interventions implemented in fragile or conflict‐affected states show reasons for optimism as well as challenges. This article advocates the continued use of social accountability methods in fragile settings and provides examples of social accountability interventions in the health sector in Sierra Leone. The study suggests that social accountability can improve interaction between citizens and public service providers. Successful social accountability interventions can also lead to better quality and more accessible public services, which, in turn, can enhance state legitimacy.     

Humanitarian governance and resilience building: Ethiopia in comparative perspective

Humanitarian governance is usually understood according to the classic, Dunantist paradigm that accords central importance to international humanitarian agencies. However, this is increasingly paralleled by ‘resilience humanitarianism’ that focuses, among other things, on including national actors in humanitarian governance. This article views humanitarian governance as emerging through interactions between authorities, implementing agencies and communities. It is based on interactive ethnography in five countries by Partners for Resilience (PfR). Using the Theory of Change (ToC) tool, it analyses the various interpretations and priorities of actors involved in humanitarian problems, solutions and programme governance. For example, PfR had a ‘software’ focus, aiming to unlock communities’ potential for resilience, whereas communities and authorities preferred to receive tangible ‘hardware’ support. The findings highlight the crucial role of local authorities in shaping humanitarian aid. This is especially pertinent in view of the international agenda to localise aid, which requires the understanding and support of national actors in order to responsibly protect the vulnerable.     

Ambivalence towards discourse of disaster resilience

This paper investigates empirically how the international aid community (IAC)—donors and practitioners—considers and implements disaster resilience in a specific country setting, Nepal, and throughout the rest of the world. A key finding is that there is ambivalence about a concept that has become a discourse. On a global level, the IAC utilises the discourse of resilience in a cautiously positive manner as a bridging concept. On a national level, it is being used to influence the Government of Nepal, as well as serving as an operational tool of donors. The mythical resilient urban community is fashioned in the IAC's imaginary; understanding how people create communities and what type of linkages with government urban residents desire to develop their resilience strategies is missing, though, from the discussion. Disaster resilience can be viewed as another grand plan to enhance the lives of people. Yet, regrettably, an explicit focus on individuals and their communities is lost in the process.     

The ecological insurance trap

Common pool resources often insure individual livelihoods against the collapse of private endeavors. When endeavors based on private and common pool resources are interconnected, investment in one can put the other at risk. We model Senegalese pastoralists who choose whether to grow crops, a private activity, or raise livestock on common pool pastureland. Livestock can increase the likelihood of locust outbreaks via ecological processes related to grassland degradation. Locust outbreaks damage crops, but not livestock, which are used for savings and insurance. We show the incentive to self-protect (reduce grazing pressure) or self-insure (increase livestock levels) changes with various property rights schemes and levels of ecological detail. If the common pool nature of insurance exacerbates the ecological externality even fully-informed individuals may make risk management decisions that increase the probability of catastrophe, creating an “insurance trap.”     

红枫湖地表水中多环芳烃的分布及来源

将固相微萃取与气相色谱联用，对贵阳红枫湖水样中16种美国环境保护署优控的多环芳烃进行分析。结果表明：红枫湖水中16种多环芳烃总量为0167 1~0336 4 μg/L，与国内其它水系相比，湖中存在多环芳烃轻度污染。7种（萘、荧蒽、苯并(b)荧蒽、苯并(k)荧蒽、苯并(a)芘、茚并(1,2,3-cd)芘和苯并(ghi)苝）多环芳烃的总量未超出中国城市供水行业对多环芳烃规定的限值，但作为饮用水源，红枫湖水中的苯并(a)芘含量已超出我国标准GB3838-2002中生活饮用水地表水源地的苯并(a)芘限值，并且苯并(a)蒽、〖JX-*9〗〖SX（B-25x〗〖HT7，5”〗艹〖〗〖HT6”，5”〗屈〖HT5”〗〖SX）〗〖JX*9〗、苯并(b)荧蒽、苯并(k)荧蒽、苯并(a)芘、茚并(1,2,3-cd)芘的含量也超过了美国环境保护署地表水水质标准限值。通过多环芳烃特征参数的比值，分析了红枫湖水中多环芳烃的污染来源。污染源分析表明，湖中多环芳烃的主要来源为燃烧源，包括木材、煤以及化石燃料的燃烧，同时也有一部分多环芳烃是来源石油类物质的输入.     

Do trace metal(loid)s in road soils pose health risks to tourists? A case of a highly-visited national park in China

Nowadays, more people tend to spend their recreational time in large national parks, and trace metal(loid)s in soils have attracted long-term attention due to their possible harm to human health. To investigate the pollution levels, potential sources and health risks of trace metal(loid)s in road soils, a total of eight trace metal(loid)s (including As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn and Hg) from 47 soil samples along roads were studied in the Huangshan National Park in Southeast China. The results showed that the concentrations of As, Cd, Pb, Zn and Hg appeared different degrees of pollution compared with their corresponding background values. According to the pollution indices, Hg and Cd were recognized as significant pollutants presenting moderate to high ecological risk. Combining principal component analysis and positive matrix factorization model, the results showed that traffic, industrial, agricultural and natural sources were the potential origins of trace metal(loid)s in this area, with contribution rates of 39.93%, 25.92%, 10.53% and 23.62%, respectively. Non-carcinogenic risks were all negligible, while the carcinogenic risk of As was higher than the limit (1 $\times$ 10⁻⁶). Moreover, children were more susceptible to trace metal(loid)s by ingestion which appeared to be a more important exposure pathway than dermal contact and inhalation. The contribution rates of different sources to non-carcinogenic risks and carcinogenic risks were similar among children and adults, while traffic and industrial sources have a significant impact on health risks. This study will give more insights to control the environmental risks of trace metal(loid)s in national parks.     

考虑保护层响应的炼化过程系统风险动态转移模型

为适时、有效地控制炼化过程系统风险,以模糊Petri网(FPN)为基础,针对炼化系统动态退化性和系统中保护层对风险转移的干预性,建立考虑保护层响应的炼化过程系统风险动态转移模型。描述基于FPN的保护层作用动态机制,分析炼化系统在保护层干预下,从非正常干扰触发开始至炼化系统退化过程的风险变化趋势。最后通过正己烷缓冲罐案例分析验证模型。结果表明:正己烷缓冲罐在开始运行的30 000 h内,系统风险等级呈阶段性变化,在工作的前16 800 h,风险为Ⅰ级;第16 800~27 600 h,风险为Ⅱ级;第27 600~30 000 h,风险为Ⅲ级。     

脆弱性基本原理与控制方法

本文从社会进步导致自反性危机出发,通过对风险承载体脆弱性构成要素暴露度、敏感度、适应度的分析,提出了三特征要素递次演化的模型;并根据脆弱性的递次演化的特点,提出了对脆弱性的辨识和递次管控的基本思路;最后,依据对地铁运行安全管理脆弱性的研究,进行脆弱性管理的实证分析。