新疆天山公路泥石流风险评价研究

结合泥石流危险度和公路受泥石流损毁度两个指标,构建了天山公路泥石流风险评价模型,实现了对天山公路全线主要泥石流沟的风险值量化:风险值大于0.80的为极度危险,应以防为主,治为辅;风险值在0.50～0.80之间的为高度危险,应防、治并重;风险值在0.25～0.60之间的为中度危险,应以治为主,防为辅;风险值小于0.25的为轻度危险,应以防为主,治为辅。     

Landslides, risk and decision-making in Kinnaur District: bridging the gap between science and public opinion

In November 1989 a major landslide destroyed the link road to the village of Sapni in Kinnaur District of Himachal Pradesh in the Indian Himalaya. Although aware of the risk of further landslide activity, the community has campaigned successfully for reconstruction of the road. Decisions of this kind take place at the local level, through village institutions and open debate, with good feedback between villages and district government authorities. In this way a balance is established between meeting more immediate needs (such as domestic water supply, irrigation, road access) and taking acceptable risks. Using the Sapni landslide as a case study, this paper explores the issue of 'acceptable risk', and looks at the existing strategy for risk and disaster reduction in the district.     

道路交通紧急救援服务点的优化选址

针对道路交通紧急救援对公平性、效率性、事故并发性的多目标决策需求,提出用于道路交通救援点选址的多目标决策模型。该模型通过最小化最大救援时间满足救援公平性;通过最大化一次覆盖的需求量和最小化救援点到需求点总加权时间满足救援效率;通过最大化备份覆盖的需求量满足事故并发与重大事故的救援。针对多目标决策模型,开发基于模拟退火法的优化解法,结合算例分析,能够获得减少最大救援时间、最大化一次覆盖和备份覆盖需求量的多个目标方向上最优解,实现pareto最优化的成功率均在95%以上。实例计算比较表明,笔者提出的模型与算法可以为决策者提供多目标选址方案。     

AHP-SWOT法在道路交通安全改善策略中的应用

针对交通事故的特点,探讨AHP-SWOT方法在道路交通事故评价中的具体应用。SWOT(优势—劣势,机会—威胁)分析法是一种综合考虑系统外部环境和内部条件的各种因素,对其进行系统评价并从中选择最佳策略的方法,但是它缺少定量分析的过程。AHP(层次分析法)具有定性分析和定量分析相结合的优势,采用SWOT和AHP相结合的方法进行评价更加合理和准确。将AHP-SWOT方法应用于道路交通安全评价系统,分析道路交通安全系统所面临的机会和威胁、所处的优势和劣势,可为正确评价道路安全水平、制定合理的道路交通安全改善策略提供理论指导。实例证明该方法可行有效。     

道路交叉口冲突仿真分析

针对基于事故的安全评价在数量、周期、均值、随机性等方面以及基于现场冲突观测识别在主观性、可靠性、成本、指标全面性等方面存在的问题,提出基于冲突仿真的交叉口安全预评价分析方法:研究利用安全间接分析(SSAM)模型分析冲突的基本原理和冲突时间(TTC)、遭遇时间(PET)等分析指标的计算方法;以及利用VISSIM仿真软件进行冲突仿真分析应注意的策略。以邢台市某道路交叉口安全改善方案为例,进行改善前后冲突仿真的比较分析。研究结果表明,改善后在通行效率显著提升的同时,交叉、追尾、车道变换冲突的数量均显著减少,TTC值有所增加,说明改善后安全程度有所提升。笔者提出的方法和案例应用为道路交叉口改善措施的安全预评价提供了一种分析途径和有益借鉴。     

城市公路隧道预警指标体系调研与分析

通过对上海市公路隧道运营的实地调研以及欧洲主要城市公路隧道的资料收集,讨论并比较城市公路隧道运营预警系统发展过程及其设计框架;分析国内外城市公路隧道预警系统构成;研究预警指标的预警原理及其特性。结合上海市公路隧道实地调研收集和反馈的数据资料,对城市公路隧道预警指标的选择进行研究,从而为城市公路隧道预警系统的规范化、标准化提供理论依据和技术支持。     

Experimental investigation of the e ect of flow turbulence and sediment transport patterns on the adsorption of cadmium ions onto sediment particles

The mechanism of flow turbulence,sediment supply conditions,and sediment transport patterns that affect the adsorption of cadmiumions onto sediment particles in natural waters are experimentally simulated and studied both in batch reactors and in a turbulencesimulation tank.By changing the agitation conditions,the sediment transport in batch reactors can be categorized into bottom sediment-dominated sediment and suspended sediment-dominated sediment.It is found that the adsorption rate of bottom sediment is much lessthan that of suspended sediment,but the sediment transport pattern does not affect the final(equilibrium)concentration of dissolvedcadmium.This result indicates that the parameters of an adsorption isotherm are the same regardless of the sediment transport pattern.Inthe turbulence simulation tank,the turbulence is generated by harmonic grid-stirred motions,and the turbulence intensity is quantifiedin terms of eddy diffusivity,which is equal to 9.84F(F is the harmonic vibration frequency)and is comparable to natural surfacewater conditions.When the turbulence intensity of flow is low and sediment particles stay as bottom sediment,the adsorption rateis significantly low,and the adsorption quantity compared with that of suspended sediment is negligible in the 6 h duration of theexperiment.This result greatly favors the simplification of the numerical modeling of heavy metal pollutant transformation in naturalrivers.When the turbulence intensity is high but bottom sediment persists,the rate and extent of descent of the dissolved cadmiumconcentration in the tank noticeably increase,and the time that is required to reach adsorption equilibrium also increases considerablydue to the continuous exchange that occurs between the suspended sediment and the bottom sediment.A comparison of the results ofthe experiments in the batch reactor and those in the turbulence simulation tank reveals that the adsorption ability of the sediment,andin particular the adsorption rate,is greatly over-estimated in the batch reactor.     

Two-phase flow insights into open-channel flows with suspended particles of different densities

The effect of particle density on the turbulent open-channel flow carrying dilute particle suspensions is investigated using two specific gravities and three concentrations of solid particles. The particles, identical in size and similar in shape, were natural sand and a neutrally buoyant plastic. The particles were fully suspended, and formed no particle streaks on the channel’s bed. Accordingly, the changes in the flow are attributed to the interactions between suspended particles and flow turbulence structures. Measurements were obtained by means of image velocimetry enabling simultaneous, but distinct, measurement of liquid and particle velocities. The experimental results show that, irrespective of particle specific gravity, particle suspension influences bulk velocity of flow and the Kármán coefficient, while friction velocity essentially remains constant. The results also show that particles in suspension modify local water turbulence over the flow depth, but in ways not accurately predicted using the customary parameters for characterizing turbulence modification.     

The Reynolds transport theorem: Application to ecological compartment modeling and case study of ecosystem energetics

The Reynolds transport theorem (RTT) from mathematics and engineering has a rich history of success in mass transport dynamics and traditional thermodynamics. This paper introduces RTT as a complementary approach to traditional compartmental methods used in ecological modeling and network analysis. A universal system equation for a generic flow quantity is developed into a generic open-system differential expression for conservation of energy. Nonadiabatic systems are defined and incorporated into control volume (CV) and control surface (CS) perspectives of RTT where reductive assumptions in empirical data are then formally introduced, reviewed, and appropriately implemented. Compartment models are abstract, time-dependent systems of simultaneous differential equations describing storage and flow of conservative quantities between interconnected entities (the compartments). As such, they represent a set of flexible and somewhat informal, assumptions, definitions, algebraic manipulations, and graphical depictions subject to influence and selectively parsed expression by the modeler. In comparison, RTT compartment models are more rigorous and formal integro-differential equations and graphics initiated by the RTT universal system equation, forcing an ordered identification of simplifying assumptions, ending with clearly identified depictions of the transfer and transport of conservative substances in physical space and time. They are less abstract in the rigor of their equation development leaving less ambiguity to modeler discretion. They achieve greater consistency with other RTT compartment style models while possibly generating greater conformity with physical reality. Characteristics of the RTT approach are compared with those of a traditional compartment model of energy flow in an intertidal oyster-reef community.     

Analytical solutions of three-dimensional contaminant transport in uniform flow field in porous media: A library

The purpose of this study is to present a library of analytical solutions for the three-dimensional contaminant transport in uniform flow field in porous media with the first-order decay, linear sorption, and zero-order production. The library is constructed using Green’s function method (GFM) in combination with available solutions. The library covers a wide range of solutions for various conditions. The aquifer can be vertically finite, semi-infinitive or infinitive, and laterally semi-infinitive or infinitive. The geometry of the sources can be of point, line, plane or volumetric body; and the source release can be continuous, instantaneous, or by following a given function over time. Dimensionless forms of the solutions are also proposed. A computer code FlowCAS is developed to calculate the solutions. Calculated results demonstrate the correctness of the presented solutions. The library is widely applicable to solve contaminant transport problems of one- or multiple- dimensions in uniform flow fields.