Identifying future scenarios and their implications for transport policy

Scenario analysis is a technique that is increasingly being used as a way of identifying future policy options and issues in the long-term. This paper discusses the role of scenario analysis in policy development in relation to future transport policy. It discusses three key stages in scenario analysis: the identification of policy targets; the development of images of the future; and the construction of policy packages.     

Accumulation and transportation of copper in different ecotypes of Leersia hexandra Swartz

ABSTRACT

This study used hydroponics with different copper (Cu) concentrations to assess metal accumulation and growth in two different populations of Leersia hexandra Swartz, one obtained from a contaminated area (CP) and the other from a non-contaminated area (NCP). Data demonstrated that Cu exerted a lesser effect on the biomass of CP than NCP. The root and shoot biomass measurements of CP were significantly higher than those noted at NCP. Copper concentration in the tissues of L. hexandra from CP increased markedly correlated with the concentration of metal in the culture solution, and this trend was stronger than that in NCP. Copper concentrations in roots and shoots were significantly higher in CP than NCP. As Cu stress levels in the culture solution rose, the transport coefficient of both populations decreased. Furthermore, the coefficient of CP was significantly higher than NCP. At a Cu concentration of 38.4 mg/L, the transfer factor value of CP is 40% higher than NCP. In summary, CP showed higher accumulation and resistance to Cu compared with NCP.     

Colloid‐facilitated transport of metolachlor through intact soil columns

Abstract

This study evaluated the role of water dispersible colloids with diverse physicochemical and mineralogical characteristics in facilitating the transport of metolachlor through macropores of intact soil columns. The soil columns represented upper solum horizons of an Alfisol in the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. Three different colloid suspensions tagged with metolachlor [2‐chloro‐N‐(2‐ethyl‐6‐methylphenyl)‐N‐(2‐methoxy‐l‐methylethyl)acetamide] were introduced at a constant flux into undisturbed soil columns. The eluents were collected and analyzed periodically for colloid and metolachlor concentrations. Colloid recovery in the eluents ranged from 54 to 90 %. The presence of colloids enhanced the transport of metolachlor by 22 to 70 % depending on the colloid type and mobility. Colloids with higher pH, organic carbon, cation exchange capacity (CEC), total exchangeable bases (TEB), surface area (SA), and electrophoretic mobility (EM), showed better mobility, greater affinity for interaction with the herbicide and, thus, greater potential to co‐transport metolachlor. In contrast, increased level of kaolinite, Fe, and Al inhibited metolachlor adsorption and transport. In spite of the increased transportability of metolachlor by the presence of soil colloids, the colloid bound herbicide portion accounted for a very small part of the observed increase. This suggests that surface site exclusion mechanisms and preferential sorption induced by the presence of colloids are more important than ion exchange phenomena in promoting herbicide mobility in subsurface environments.     

Are calcareous soils in uplands less prone to damage from road salting than acidic soils?

Previous studies of upland roadside soils in Cumbria, that would normally be naturally acidic, have highlighted that (a) runoff from roads subjected to long-term road salting can dramatically raise soil pH down slope in upland areas; (b) the soil pH increase dramatically changes N cycling in soils down slope, increasing mineralisation of organic matter, ammonification, ammonium leaching down slope and nitrification and nitrate leaching; (c) the increase in nitrification substantially increases nitrate leaching to down-slope rivers, and this is readily detectable in field studies; and (d) loss of soil organic matter over decades of salting is so great that organic matter is no longer substantially solubilised by high salt concentrations found in soil solution below road drains. This paper tests and supports the hypothesis that such effects are minimal for more calcareous soil ecosystems. It examines the soil and soil solution chemistry on another Cumbrian upland highway, the A686 near Leadgate, Alston. Sodium % of soil CEC values for soil transects affected by spray containing road salt are similar at both the A6 and A686 sites. However, spatial trends in calcium, magnesium, ammonium, and nitrate concentrations as well as pH differ, as a direct result of the higher weathering rate of parent material and possibly also the presence of limestone walls above both spray-affected and control transects at the A686 site.     

Fatally injured drivers in Norway 2005–2015—Trends in substance use and crash characteristics

Objective: Norway introduced a “Vision Zero” strategy in 2001, using multiple approaches, aiming toward a future in which no one will be killed or seriously injured in road traffic crashes (RTCs). Official statistics show that the number of fatally injured road users has declined substantially from 341 deaths in 2000 to 117 in 2015. In-depth crash investigations of all fatal RTCs started in Norway in 2005. The aim of this study was to investigate whether fatal crash characteristics, vehicle safety features, and prevalence of drugs and/or alcohol among fatally injured drivers and riders has changed during 2005–2015, accompanying the reduction in road fatalities.

Methods: Data on all car/van drivers and motorcycle/moped riders fatally injured in RTCs during 2005–2015 were extracted from Norwegian road traffic crash registries and combined with forensic toxicology data.

Results: The proportion of cars and motorcycles with antilock braking systems and cars with electronic stability control, increased significantly during the study period. The prevalence of nonuse of seat belts/helmets and speeding declined among both fatally injured drivers and riders. In addition, the prevalence of alcohol declined, though no significant change in the total prevalence of other substances was noted.

Conclusion: The observed changes toward more safety installations in cars and motorcycles and lower prevalence of driver-related risk factors like alcohol use, speeding, and nonuse of seat belts/helmets among fatally injured drivers/riders may have contributed to the decrease in road traffic deaths.     

A simulator study of driving behavior and mental workload in mixed-use arterial road environments

Objectives: Mixed-use urban environments, such as arterial roads with adjacent commercial land uses, represent crash locations with the highest risk. These locations are often characterized by high volumes of motor vehicle traffic, on-street parking, and interactions with multiple road user groups such as pedestrians, cyclists, and public transportation. The objective of this study was to investigate previously identified crash risk factors for mixed-use urban environments and assess how parking occupancy, center medians, and cyclist volume influence performance and workload in a driving simulator study.

Methods: Thirty participants were recruited for the study. Participants completed 6 drives that presented different combinations of cyclist volume, median condition, and parking occupancy. Incorporated into the simulator drives was a secondary peripheral detection task (PDT) designed to measure mental workload. Participants provided subjective assessments of workload using the Rating Scale Mental Effort (RSME).

Results: Mean lateral lane position was found to significantly vary across the 3 independent variables of parking occupancy, cyclist volume, and median conditions. No significant changes were identified for mean speed across the conditions. Subjective and objective measures of workload identified changes due to the presence of cyclists with slower reaction times for the PDT task when cyclists were present.

Conclusion: The findings provide insight into the interaction of road design elements in mixed-use urban road environments and demonstrate that increasingly complex environments increase driver demand. This has important road design implications for mixed-use arterial roads, which are often characterized by complex interactions between multiple road user groups.     

Seasonal Flushing of Pollutant Concentrations and Loads in Urban Stormwater1

Schiff, Kenneth C. and Liesl L. Tiefenthaler, 2011. Seasonal Flushing of Pollutant Concentrations and Loads in Urban Stormwater. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):136‐142. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00497.x Abstract: Despite broad observations of first flush within storms, the scientific understanding of seasonal flushing remains incomplete. Seasonal flushing occurs when initial storms of the season have greater concentrations or loads than storms later in the season. The goal of this study was to census stormwater concentrations and loads from an arid, urban watershed to quantify seasonal flushing. Samples were collected every 15 min during the 1997‐1998 wet season from the Santa Ana River and analyzed for total suspended solids. Initial storms of the season generated event mean concentrations 3‐10 times the event mean concentration of storms later in the season. Cumulative flow‐weighted mean concentrations were calculated as the season progressed. Early season storms discharged only 6% of the annual volume, but influenced flow‐weighted mean concentrations well past the midpoint of the wet season. Mass‐based estimates also indicated a disproportionate load in the early portion of the year; over 52% of the annual load was discharged in the first 30% of the annual volume from the highly urbanized lower watershed. Other stormwater pollutants, including six trace metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni, Zn), were highly correlated with total suspended solids and also exhibited a significant seasonal flush.     

Influence of road characteristics on flood fatalities in Australia

ABSTRACT

An analysis of published flood fatalities in Australia occurring between 1960 and 2015 revealed that 49% of 229 flood fatalities were vehicle related. After reviewing previous work on vehicle-related flood fatalities, this study examines attributes of roadways that may have influenced driver decisions to enter floodwaters and the survivability of people in vehicles that did so and concludes by discussing policy implications. Characteristics most frequently present were small upstream catchment length that may influence the rate of rise of floodwaters; the absence of roadside barricades; deep flooding immediately adjacent to the roadway; the absence of lighting; dipping road grades that lead floodwaters to increase once a vehicle enters them; the lack of curb and guttering and the inability of motorists to easily turn around. Each of these factors were observed in at least 50% of the cases studied and provide a risk-based means of assessing other sites vulnerable to flooding but where fatalities have not been observed to date.     

Amphibian Encounter Rates on Roads with Different Amounts of Traffic and Urbanization

Abstract: Although amphibians have relatively high rates of road mortality in urban areas, the conditions under which traffic threatens the survival of local amphibian populations remain unclear. In the Sandhills region of North Carolina (U.S.A.), we counted living and dead amphibians along two transects (total length 165 km) established on roads in areas with varying degrees of urbanization. We found 2665 individuals of 15 species, and amphibian encounter rates declined sharply as traffic and urban development increased. Regression‐tree models indicated that 35 amphibians/100 km occurred on roads with <535 vehicles/day, whereas the encounter rate decreased to only 2 amphibians/100 km on roads with >2048 vehicles/day. Although mortality rate peaked at higher traffic levels (47% dead on roads with >5200 vehicles/day), the number of dead amphibians was highest at low levels of traffic. This suggests that areas where amphibian mortality is concentrated may actually contain the largest populations remaining on a given road transect.     

Geomorphic and Ecological Consequences of Riprap Placement in River Systems

Riprap, consisting of large boulders or concrete blocks, is extensively used to stabilize streambanks and to inhibit lateral erosion of rivers, yet its effect on river morphology and its ecological consequences have been relatively little studied. In this paper, we review the available information, most of it culled from the “grey” literature. We use a simple one‐dimensional morphodynamic model as a conceptual tool to illustrate potential morphological effects of riprap placement in a gravel‐bed river, which include inhibition of local sediment supply to the channel and consequent channel bed scour and substrate coarsening, and downstream erosion. Riprap placement also tends to sever organic material input from the riparian zone, with loss of shade, wood input, and input of finer organic material. Available information on the consequences for the aquatic ecosystem mainly concerns effects on commercially and recreationally important fishes. The preponderance of studies report unfavorable effects on local numbers, but habitat niches created by openings in riprap can favorably affect invertebrates and some small fishes. There is a need for much more research on both morphological and ecosystem effects of riprap placement.