北京地区高速公路夏季道面高温灾害预报研究

高速公路经常会面临雨雪雾等恶劣天气的影响,导致出现诸如爆胎、路面积冰(积雪)等恶劣路况,并常常引发重大安全事故,因此准确预报高速路道面参数具有非常重要的意义.高速公路下垫面具有不透水、无植被覆盖等特性,仅采用气候模式而不考虑下垫面特性模拟与预测道面参数会产生较大误差.本文对CoLM陆面模式进行了改进,采用改进后的陆面模式与最新的区域预报模式BJ-RUC对盛夏北京地区几个高速公路观测站点的道面温度进行了预报.结果表明,相对于仅采用BJ-RUC模式进行预报,BJ-RUC与CoLM模式结合预报方法在正午前后道面温度非常高时与观测值符合得更好,误差由约10～20℃减小为约5～10℃.道面温度的准确预报可以更好的预防道面高温引发的交通安全事故的发生.     

DEM格网尺度对AnnAGNPS预测山地小流域径流和物质输出的影响

为了解流域地形空间参数和其它参数的精度对农业非点源污染模型AnnAGNPS预测准确性的影响,利用三峡库区黑河小流域观测资料校准了AnnAGNPS模型,分析了1.5-12.5m格网尺度DEM对地形参数和模型负载输出的影响.结果表明,1.5～12.5m格网尺度DEM对流域径流量、洪峰流量、总N输出影响不显著,但对泥沙、总P、有机碳输出影响显著.三峡库区类似小流域宜采用5m格网尺度DEM,AnnAGNPS模型较不适合于尺度较小、坡度较大的小流域泥沙负载预测.     

表面活性剂对二嗪磷在不同土壤中吸附迁移的影响

采用批量平衡法和薄层层析法, 分别研究了不同浓度的3种表面活性剂十二烷基苯磺酸钠(SDBS)、Tween80和十六烷基三甲基溴化胺(CTAB) 对二嗪磷在湖南省具有代表性的6大土类、9种不同母质土壤中吸附和迁移性能的影响. 结果表明, SDBS能够明显地降低各种土壤对二嗪磷的吸附, 促进二嗪磷的迁移作用, 并且吸附平衡系数(Kd)、比移值(Rf)分别随SDBS浓度增大而增大、减小.浓度成显著的负相关和正相关关系.Tween-80和CTAB对二嗪磷在土壤中的吸附和迁移表现出一定的相似性, Tween-80浓度在0.1~2倍临界胶束浓度(CMC)范围内(CTAB浓度为0.80~87.43 mg·L-1), 其Kd值、Rf值分别随表面活性剂浓度增大而增大、减小, 而Tween-80浓度在2~5倍临界胶束浓度的范围内(CTAB浓度为87.43~191.60 mg·L-1.), 则出现与之相反的变化趋势.     

Assessment of physically-based and data-driven models to predict microbial water quality in open channels

In the present study,a physically-based hydraulic modeling tool and a data-driven approach using artificial neural networks (ANNs) were evaluated for their ability to simulate the fate and transport of microorganisms in a water system.To produce reliable data,a pipe network was constructed and a series of experiments using a fecal coliform indicator (Escherichia coli 15597) was conducted.For the physically-based model,morphological (pipe size,link length,slope,etc.) and hydraulic (flow rate) conditions were used as input variables,and for ANNs,water quality parameters (conductivity,pH,and turbidity) were used.Both approaches accurately described the fate and transport of microorganisms (physically-based model: correlation coefficient (R) in the range of 0.914 – 0.977 and ANNs: R in the range of 0.949 – 0.980),with the exception of one case at a low flow rate (q = 31.56 cm 3 /sec).This study also indicated that these approaches could be complementarily utilized to assess the vulnerability of water facilities and to establish emergency plans based on hypothetical scenarios.     

近地表土壤水分条件对坡面农业非点源污染物运移的影响

采用人工模拟降雨实验,研究了近地表土壤水分条件,尤其是土壤水分饱和条件对土壤侵蚀过程中农业非点源污染物运移的影响.结果表明,前期近地表土壤水分条件对土壤侵蚀过程中农业非点源污染物的迁移有着很大影响.饱和含水量时径流及泥沙中非点源污染物的流失浓度和流失量大于非饱和含水量,且前期近地表土壤含水量越大,径流及泥沙中农业非点源污染物的流失浓度和流失量越大.土壤氮素的主要流失途径是降雨所产生的径流,约占总流失量的90.4%～99.8%;土壤磷素的流失途径是降雨径流和侵蚀产沙,分别占总流失量的2.67%～23.5%和76.5%～97.3%.同时,土壤质地对磷素养分的流失有很大影响,杨凌土随泥沙流失的DP浓度和流失量均大于安塞黄绵土.最后,提出了采取最佳管理措施等控制农业非点源污染的针对性建议.     

P450酶系对污染物的生物指示和催化降解机制

细胞色素P450酶系是广泛存在于不同生物体内的含有多种超家族CYP450血红素蛋白或相同结构域的一系列酶,是多组分电子传递链的终端氧化还原酶。最新研究发现,利用P450在生物体内的含量/活性与污染物浓度的定量响应关系可实现环境污染的早期预警和诊断,对环境污染的监测和预报具有重要意义。更重要的是,P450酶系被认为是生物对内源或外生污染物代谢途径的启动催化因子。P450的脱卤化、羧基化、脱烷基化、环氧化等催化作用在诱导污染物的分解代谢过程中起核心作用。本文综述了P450酶系的结构、催化过程和诱导抑制机理,分析了其在环境污染物的生物指示和催化降解中的应用进展,以便为利用P450进行环境预警和生物修复提供系统的理论和技术支持。     

Improving the safety of distracted pedestrians with in-ground flashing lights. A railway crossing field study

Introduction: Current signage at intersections is designed for attentive pedestrians who are looking ahead. Such signage may not be sufficient when distracted by smartphones. Illuminated in-ground LED lights at crossings are an innovative solution to alert distracted pedestrians. Method: We conducted a field study at a railway crossing equipped with in-ground lights to assess whether distracted pedestrians (N = 34, Mean age 33.6 ± 8.6 years) could detect these lights and how this impacted on their visual scanning and crossing behaviour. This involved a 2 × 3 repeated measures design exploring the impact of the presence (treatment) or absence (control) of in-ground lights (treatment) at a crossing, and a distractor task presented through a mobile device (none, visual, and audio) on eye movements recorded using an eye tracker, and verbal reporting of when participants detected the lights. Results: Participants engaged in the distraction tasks as evidenced by their accuracy and reaction times in all conditions. With both the audio and visual distraction tasks, participants looked at the in-ground LEDs and detected their activation as accurately as when not distracted (95%). While most participants detected the lights at their activation, visual distraction resulted in 10% of the detections occurring as participants entered the rail corridor, suggesting effectiveness in gaining pedestrians’ attention. Further, participants were significantly less likely to check for trains when visually distracted (70%), a 10% reduction compared to the no or audio distractor conditions (80% and 78% respectively). The introduction of the in-ground lights resulted in appropriate scanning of the rail tracks (77% and 78% for the visual and auditory distractor tasks respectively) similar to that of non-distracted participants for the crossing without lights (80%). Conclusions: Our findings indicate that illuminated in-ground lights could be useful in attracting the attention of distracted pedestrians at railway level crossings, and possibly at other road intersections. Practical Applications: Illuminated in-ground lights can be installed at rail and road intersections with known pedestrian distraction as a countermeasure. Further research is necessary to understand their long-term effects.     

Analyzing the safety impact of longer and heavier vehicles circulating in the European market

Introduction: The European Union (EU) has developed different strategies to internalize the costs of excessive motor traffic in the road freight transport sector. One of these is a relaxation of restrictions on the size and load capacity of trucks that circulate between member States and a proposal has been made for Longer and Heavier Vehicles (LHVs) to be allowed to circulate across borders. LHVs are the so-called “megatrucks” (i.e., trucks with a length of 25 meters and a weight of 60 tonnes). Megatrucks have allowed to circulate for decades in some European countries such as Norway, Finland, and Sweden, world leaders in traffic accident prevention, although the impact that cross-border traffic would have on road safety is still unknown. Methods: This article provides an econometric analysis of the potential impact on road safety of allowing the circulation of “megatrucks” throughout the EU. Results: The findings show that countries that currently allow megatrucks to circulate present lower traffic accident and fatality levels, on average. Conclusions: The circulation of this type of vehicle is only advisable in countries where there is a certain degree of maturity and demonstrated achievements in the field of road safety. Practical applications: European countries that have allowed megatruck circulation obtaining better road safety outcomes in terms of accidents, although the accident lethality rate seems to be higher. Consequently, introducing megatruck circulation requires a prior proper preparation and examination.     

基于半定量的FRAM道路危险品运输事故分析方法研究*

为弥补事故分析法在道路危险品运输事故致因研究方面的缺失,解决传统事故分析方法分析结果不全面、防控措施不具体且针对性较差的问题,引入半定量功能共振事故模型（FRAM）,通过定量化功能上下游耦合变异性,阐述事故发生机理同时,找到系统关键功能和关键链路,制定防控措施重点监控。结果表明:基于半定量的FRAM道路危险品运输事故分析方法能够更快、更准确地找出事故发生的关键功能和关键链路,制定针对性防控措施,有效提高道路危险品运输系统安全性。研究结果可为道路事故分析提供参考。     

北京市交通扬尘对大气环境质量的影响

利用中尺度气象模式ARPS与空气质量模式Models-3/CMAQ的耦合模式,模拟2002年4个季节代表月份(1月、4月、8月和10月)北京市PM10浓度的时空分布.与监测数据对比分析表明,该耦合模式有很好的可靠性.设计了2种污染源情景方案,分析了北京市2002年4个季节代表月份交通扬尘对市区大气PM10的影响.结果表明,在4个代表月中,交通扬尘对北京市PM10的逐时贡献率波动较大,最高可达33%,最低为3%;交通扬尘对北京市大气PM10影响显著,4个月平均贡献率分别为16.73%、12.92%、18.56%和18.17%,平均贡献浓度分别为27.61 μg/m3、32.80 μg/m3、25.20 μg/m3和24.40 μg/m3.此外,依据模拟结果,结合交通扬尘污染特征与治理现状,提出了北京市交通扬尘的初步治理方案.