环境规制对技术效率和生产力损失的影响分析

以中国工业为研究对象,以经济发展程度不同所分的东部、中部和西部地区兰个地区作为研究区域,采用非参数数据包络法(DEA)中的径自效率测量方法(radial efficiency measure)为主要研究方法,分析了在1998-2005年期间环境规制对中国工业的技术效率和生产力损失的影响.研究结果表明,在指定的研究期间,环境规制使得中国工业技术效率提高,但是对于生产力的发展却产生了负面的影响.三个地区之间受环境规制影响的差异较大,其中东部为环境规制所付出的成本最大,即东部为环境污染所付出的环境成本最高,这也是为何从九十年代开始,污染物从东部往中西部转移的原因;从受污染物影响的角度来看,因控制废水而引起的生产力损失大于因控制SO2而引起的生产力损失,即对于中国工业,废水的环境成本大于SO2的环境成本.另外,从研究结果中也可知,在中国现有的生产方式下,实施严格的环境规制有一定难度,所以改变旧的生产方式,实施可持续发展的生产方式是当务之急.     

吨量煤体的自燃过程实验模拟研究

为更好地弄清矿井实际的煤自然发火规律,利用装煤量达5吨的大型实验台对两种烟煤分别进行了自燃模拟实验。大煤量的实验能够很好地模拟煤矿中煤低温氧化和传热传质共同作用导致的发火过程,实验得到的自然发火期与煤矿实际发火期也是一致的。实验中煤样从缓慢氧化变为快速氧化的临界温度为100～110℃。当煤温低于,临界温度时,煤样的升温受到空气流带走热量和向外界散热的影响很大,因此夹层水的保温作用就很关键。当煤温超过临界温度后,反应加快,温度急剧上升,散热的影响明显降低,反应主要受限于氧气的供应情况。     

Effectiveness of Africa's tropical protected areas for maintaining forest cover

The effectiveness of parks for forest conservation is widely debated in Africa, where increasing human pressure, insufficient funding, and lack of management capacity frequently place significant demands on forests. Tropical forests house a substantial portion of the world's remaining biodiversity and are heavily affected by anthropogenic activity. We analyzed park effectiveness at the individual (224 parks) and national (23 countries) level across Africa by comparing the extent of forest loss (as a proxy for deforestation) inside parks to matched unprotected control sites. Although significant geographical variation existed among parks, the majority of African parks had significantly less forest loss within their boundaries (e.g., Mahale Park had 34 times less forest loss within its boundary) than control sites. Accessibility was a significant driver of forest loss. Relatively inaccessible areas had a higher probability (odds ratio >1, p < 0.001) of forest loss but only in ineffective parks, and relatively accessible areas had a higher probability of forest loss but only in effective parks. Smaller parks less effectively prevented forest loss inside park boundaries than larger parks (T = ?2.32, p < 0.05), and older parks less effectively prevented forest loss inside park boundaries than younger parks (F_2,154 = ?4.11, p < 0.001). Our analyses, the first individual and national assessment of park effectiveness across Africa, demonstrated the complexity of factors (such as geographical variation, accessibility, and park size and age) influencing the ability of a park to curb forest loss within its boundaries.     

How dynamics and drivers of land use/land cover change impact elephant conservation and agricultural livelihood development in Rombo,Tanzania

Land use/land cover (LULC) change affects the provision of ecosystem services for humans and habitat for wildlife. Hence, it is crucial to monitor LULC particularly adjacent to protected areas. In this study, we measured LULC change in Rombo, Tanzania, an area with high-potential agro-ecological zones that is dominated by human–elephant conflicts (HECs). We used remote sensing and geographical information system techniques, questionnaires and village meetings to assess spatio-temporal patterns of the LULC changes in the study area. Using Landsat imagery, digital elevation model (DEM) and ground truthing, we classified and monitored changes in LULC from the years 1987 to 2015. We found that within Rombo, settlements were increasing, while agricultural and agroforestry lands were decreasing and respondents’ perceptions varied along the altitudinal gradient. Patterns of HEC and LULC were observed to change along the gradient and the later threatened the agricultural land and ecological integrity for elephant habitat, leading to high tension and competition between elephants and people. This research offers baseline information for land use planning to balance wildlife conservation with livelihood development in Rombo and highlights that managing the impacts of LULC changes on HEC and elephant habitat loss is a matter of urgency.     

可旋转径向式微粒捕集器消声特性影响因素灰色关联分析

为降低可旋转径向式微粒捕集器中的排气噪声,采用有限元法建立可旋转径向式微粒捕集器声学特性模型,分析得到了其消声特性和传递损失曲线,并采用灰色关联分析方法研究可旋转径向式微粒捕集器结构参数对消声特性的影响程度。结果表明,可旋转径向式微粒捕集器具有降噪能力,且对高频噪声消声效果明显好于低频噪声,平均消声量为20 dB左右;直径比和扩张管锥角是影响可旋转径向式微粒捕集器消声特性的2个主要因素,适当选用小的直径比和扩张管锥角,有利于提高可旋转径向式微粒捕集器的消声性能。     

Linking Climate Trends to Population Dynamics in the Baltic Ringed Seal: Impacts of Historical and Future Winter Temperatures

A global trend of a warming climate may seriously affect species dependent on sea ice. We investigated the impact of climate on the Baltic ringed seals (Phoca hispida botnica), using historical and future climatological time series. Availability of suitable breeding ice is known to affect pup survival. We used detailed information on how winter temperatures affect the extent of breeding ice and a climatological model (RCA3) to project the expected effects on the Baltic ringed seal population. The population comprises of three sub-populations, and our simulations suggest that all of them will experience severely hampered growth rates during the coming 90 years. The projected 30 730 seals at the end of the twenty-first century constitutes only 16 % of the historical population size, and thus reduced ice cover alone will severely limit their growth rate. This adds burden to a species already haunted by other anthropogenic impacts.     

The structure of the fire fighting foam surfactant Forafac®1157 and its biological and photolytic transformation products

For several decades, perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) has widely been used as a fluorinated surfactant in aqueous film forming foams used as hydrocarbon fuel fire extinguishers. Due to concerns regarding its environmental persistence and toxicological effects, PFOS has recently been replaced by novel fluorinated surfactants such as Forafac®1157, developed by the DuPont company. The major component of Forafac®1157 is a 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonamide alkylbetaine (6:2 FTAB), and a link between the trade name and the exact chemical structure is presented here to the scientific community for the first time. In the present work, the structure of the 6:2 FTAB was elucidated by ¹H, ¹³C and ¹⁹F nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and high-resolution mass spectrometry. Moreover, its major metabolites from blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) and turbot (Scophthalmus maximus) and its photolytic transformation products were identified. Contrary to what has earlier been observed for PFOS, the 6:2 FTAB was extensively metabolized by blue mussel and turbot exposed to Forafac®1157. The major metabolite was a deacetylated betaine species, from which mono- and di-demethylated metabolites also were formed. Another abundant metabolite was the 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonamide. In another experiment, Forafac®1157 was subjected to UV-light induced photolysis. The experimental conditions aimed to simulate Arctic conditions and the deacetylated species was again the primary transformation product of 6:2 FTAB. A 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonamide was also formed along with a non-identified transformation product. The environmental presence of most of the metabolites and transformation products was qualitatively demonstrated by analysis of soil samples taken in close proximity to an airport fire training facility.     

重庆市大气污染对锌材料腐蚀的经济损失分析

简要介绍了材料大气腐蚀经济损失的估算方法,并以2002年为基准年,选择了重庆市主城中心的6个功能区作为代表性区域,运用腐蚀破坏剂量响应函数和使用寿命计算公式对锌材料的腐蚀经济损失进行了定量估算.结果表明,由大气污染腐蚀破坏锌材料造成的年直接经济损失约为4061.7万元,约为同期GDP的0.1%.其中,干沉降对经济损失总量的贡献率在71%～99%之间,均值为92%.     

Human Instability in Flood Flows1

Abstract: Loss of human stability in flood flows and consequent drowning are a high personal hazard. In this paper, we review past experimental work on human instability. The results of new experiments by the Flood Hazard Research Centre (FHRC) are also reported. These new results show that low depth/high velocity flood waters are more dangerous than suggested based on previous experimental work. It is discussed how human instability can be related to two physical mechanisms: moment instability (toppling) and friction instability (sliding). Comparison of the test results with these physical mechanisms suggests that the occurrence of instability in the tests by FHRC is related to friction instability. This mechanism appears to occur earlier than moment instability for the combination of shallow depth and high flow velocity. Those concerned to identify locations where high flood flows could be a threat to human life need to modify their hazard assessments accordingly.     

城市防震减灾能力评估研究

首先论述了目前国内外关于城市地震灾害风险评估的研究,分析了这些研究取得的成果和存在的不足。然后,提出了城市防震减灾能力的概念,采用人员伤亡,经济损失和震后恢复时间作为衡量城市防震减灾能力强弱的3个最基本的要素。围绕这3个基本要素,列举出影响城市防震减灾能力的6大因素,在此基础上,提出了城市防震减灾能力评价指标体系的具体内容。