不同下垫面类型对地表径流中多环芳烃污染特征的影响分析

为了解下垫面对径流中多环芳烃(PAHs)污染特征的影响,对4次降雨事件中不同下垫面地表径流中的PAHs污染特征进行了分析.研究发现,屋面(A点)与交通路面(C点)的PAHs污染负荷远远大于另两种下垫面,降雨事件平均浓度分别达到26.66μg·L-1和27.87μg·L-1.各场降雨事件都存在随着降雨历时污染物浓度逐渐降低的过程,其中交通路面变化最为剧烈,PAHs浓度由初始的33.50μg·L-1经90 min后下降至16.36μg·L-1,而屋面则在径流结束前伴有浓度回升的现象.径流中溶解态PAHs含量远低于颗粒态含量,以2—3环略占优势,达31%—42%;而在颗粒态PAHs中5—6环则相对更多.广场路面(B点)和交通路面(C点)由于汇流面积较大,具有较明显的初期冲刷效应;屋面(A点)的冲刷效应相对较弱;草地(D点)则未表现出初期冲刷效应.研究结果表明下垫面对径流中PAHs的含量和消除均有一定影响,但与PAHs组分的相对比例无明显相关.     

多层递阶方法在变化环境下非一致性水文序列分析中的应用

由于受人类活动、气候等外界变化环境的影响,用于水资源评价计算的天然年径流量序列失去了一致性。为了适应变化环境对水文预报的要求,提出了基于时变参数的非一致性年径流序列的多层递阶预报方法。该方法不同于传统带固定参数的模型,它是将预报对象看作为随机动态时变系统,首先进行动态系统的时变参数预报,进而在参数预报基础之上对系统状态预报,从而提高了预测结果的可靠性。以闽江竹岐水文站为例,进行年径流量的中长期预报,为区域水资源的优化管理提供科学的依据。     

自适应人工鱼群-BP神经网络算法在径流预测中的应用

为了提高水库和河流中长期径流预测精度,提出了弹性自适应人工鱼群算法(RAAFSA)。应用RAAFSA算法训练BP神经网络,实现BP神经网络参数优化,形成弹性自适应人工鱼群-BP神经网络混合算法(RAAFSA-BP),对石泉水库进行中长期径流预测。仿真计算表明,弹性自适应人工鱼群优化的BP神经网络算法收敛速度快于BP神经网络算法、人工鱼群-BP神经网络算法和RBF神经网络算法。该混合算法克服了BP神经网络和人工鱼群算法易陷于局部极值、搜索质量差和精度不高的缺点,改善了BP神经网络的泛化能力,输出稳定性好,预报精度显著提高,每次预测相对误差绝对值都小于6%,合格率达到100%。该算法成功地解决了石泉水库中长期径流预测精度不高的难题,可有效用于水库和河川中长期径流预测。     

NEAR‐STREAM LANDUSE EFFECTS ON STREAMWATER NUTRIENT DISTRIBUTION IN AN URBANIZING WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: We investigated spatial and temporal relationships among surface and subsurface watershed attributes and stream nutrient concentrations in urbanizing Johnson Creek watershed in northern Oregon. We sampled stream water at eight urban and five nonurban locations from March 1998 through December 1999. We sampled eight wells distributed over the two primary aquifers in the watershed. Using a Geographic Information System (GIS), percentages of landuse attributes within a radius of 30, 91, and 152 m from each sample site were quantified. We analyzed relationships between (1) nutrient concentrations and percentage cover of different landuse attributes, and (2) nutrient concentrations and underlying hydrologic units. We did not find a significant relationship between ground water chemistry and stream water chemistry. We found elevated levels of phosphorus (P) concentrations correlated with urban landuse, while higher nitrogen (N) concentrations were correlated with nonurban (primarily agricultural) landuse. We concluded that elevated levels of N in nonurban areas of Johnson Creek watershed were associated with agricultural practices. We further concluded that urban development factors such as increases in storm drains, dry wells, and impermeable surfaces may be responsible for higher input of P to the stream in urbanizing areas of the Johnson Creek watershed.     

Variation in the Parameters of the Life Cycle in Prawns of the Genus MacrobrachiumBate (Crustacea, Palaemonidae)

Variations in the parameters of the life cycle in freshwater prawns of the genus MacrobrachiumBate and some populations of the species Macrobrachium nipponense(De Haan) were analyzed comparatively. Using factor analysis, these parameters were systematized and expressed through two factors. The first factor is related to the parameters of larval development and the dimensions of an egg, and the second, to the length of adults and their fecundity. The greatest differences in the values of intrageneric and intraspecific variation of parameters are noted for the dimensions of larval stages. It is assumed that the formation of a species proceeds primarily through the appearance of adaptations at larval stages.     

黄河上中游天然径流多时间尺度变化及动因分析

运用小波分析等方法对黄河上中游天然径流序列进行了分析,揭示了河川径流多时间尺度变化规律,并对径流在不同时间尺度上变化的影响因素进行了探讨。研究结果对于认识黄河径流的变化规律、开发利用管理黄河水资源有着重要的意义。     

A COMPARISON OF DELTA CHANGE AND DOWNSCALED GCM SCENARIOS FOR THREE MOUNTAINOUS BASINS IN THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Simulated daily precipitation, temperature, and runoff time series were compared in three mountainous basins in the United States: (1) the Animas River basin in Colorado, (2) the East Fork of the Carson River basin in Nevada and California, and (3) the Cle Elum River basin in Washington State. Two methods of climate scenario generation were compared: delta change and statistical downscaling. The delta change method uses differences between simulated current and future climate conditions from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) added to observed time series of climate variables. A statistical downscaling (SDS) model was developed for each basin using station data and output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEPINCAR) reanalysis regridded to the scale of HadCM2. The SDS model was then used to simulate local climate variables using HadCM2 output for current and future conditions. Surface climate variables from each scenario were used in a precipitation‐runoff model. Results from this study show that, in the basins tested, a precipitation‐runoff model can simulate realistic runoff series for current conditions using statistically down‐scaled NCEP output. But, use of downscaled HadCM2 output for current or future climate assessments are questionable because the GCM does not produce accurate estimates of the surface variables needed for runoff in these regions. Given the uncertainties in the GCMs ability to simulate current conditions based on either the delta change or downscaling approaches, future climate assessments based on either of these approaches must be treated with caution.     

和田河年径流变化规律研究

根据和田河实测年径流资料,应用小波分析、R/S分析等多种方法,探讨了在气候变化和人类活动影响下,和田河年径流变化规律及其成因。结果表明,和田河年径流存在减少趋势,且具有一定的持续性。通过径流变化的影响因素分析表明,上游出山口处两支流的径流变化主要受气温升高的影响,下游入塔里木河处除受降水减少的影响外,主要是由于人类对水土资源开发进程的加快,人类活动是其径流变化的主要原因。     

渭河上游天然径流变化及其自然与人为因素影响贡献量

从20世纪60年代开始,渭河上游入陕西境内的水量不断减少,90年代天然径流量仅为60年代的60%。分析天然径流与降水的相关关系,对降水与非降水因素对径流减少的贡献进行了定量分析。结果表明,降水与非降水因素共同作用使得渭河上游径流量不断减少,且从20世纪70年代开始,非降水因素的贡献率逐渐增强,成为影响渭河上游天然径流量减少的主要因素。分析天然径流量与气温的相关关系,两者的相关系数在0.47以上,采用假设法,将气温从非降水因素中提取出来,进一步分析自然因素与人为因素的影响,结果表明,80年代以前,以自然因素影响为主,80年代以后,以人为因素影响为主,且人为因素的影响程度在逐渐增强,其原因在于人类活动改变下垫面导致径流减少。     

森林与径流关系——一致性和复杂性

@论文综述国外近一个世纪以来在配对集水区研究方面所取得的结论,从水的自然属性出发,从森林变化对径流(年径流量、洪峰与枯水径流)的影响,径流响应的干扰临界值及水文恢复各方面探讨森林变化与径流关系的一致性与复杂性。森林变化与径流关系的一致性主要表现在由较长时间尺度表达的年径流量上。绝大多数的配对集水区的试验研究表明,采伐森林就会增加年径流量,而在荒地上造林就会减少年径流量。而由较短时间尺度表达的洪峰径流与枯水流量则呈现较大的复杂性和难预估性。综述表明,对径流特别是洪峰与枯水径流的定义及分析方法的不同也是造成森林与径流关系复杂性的重要原因。森林与径流关系的复杂性要求人们在研究及应用其关系时就必须有系统观,必须考虑植被、径流与其它过程(土壤变化、气候变化等)的相互作用。论文还认为尽管配对集水区试验作为一种研究方法为研究者提供了许多可靠的结论,但由于许多研究者只把集水区看作是“黑箱”Q从而对认识森林与径流关系的复杂性有一定的局限性。未来的研究应把配对集水区的试验与其它对过程的研究技术(同位素、GIS等技术)结合起来。