广东沿海沉积物重金属含量及风险评价

通过收集大量监测资料,研究广东省沿海沉积物重金属污染特征及生态风险评价.基于社会、经济、自然等方面,分析广东省沿海沉积物重金属的主要影响因素.结果表明,珠江口海域沉积物中重金属含量高于粤东、粤西区域,其中Cu（106.98±70.69μg/g）、Pb含量（65.74±65.03μg/g）分别以广州、深圳最高,Zn（250.25±55.01μg/g）、Cd（1.48±0.30μg/g）、Cr（96.48±9.79μg/g）、As（17.30±14.00μg/g）含量均为中山最高.Hakanson潜在生态风险评价结果显示,广东沿海各单项指数（0.528±0.377~2.107±3.665）及综合指数（7.135±7.880）均处于"低等"水平.单因素生态风险评价结果为：Cd > Cu > Pb > Zn > As > Cr,而生态风险综合指数则表现为：珠江口（12.131） > 粤东（5.488） > 粤西（4.1560）.沿海沉积物中Cu、Pb、Zn、Cd、Cr之间均具显著正相关性（P<0.05）,说明各重金属污染来源相近,具有同源性;部分重金属（Cu、Pb、Zn）含量与TOC显著正相关（P<0.05）,而部分重金属（Cu、Cr、Cd）含量与pH值显著负相关（P<0.05）.     

基于CHNS的中国城乡居民的食品消费特征——兼与国家统计局数据对比

基于2011年我国12个省（直辖市）的中国健康与营养调查数据（China Health and Nutrition Survey, CHNS）,文章利用食物成分表重新估算我国城乡居民主要食品的消费量及在外消费特征,并与国家统计局公布的官方数据进行对比。结果显示：1）口粮方面,2011年我国居民平均消费口粮量为119.93 kg,外出消费比例为9.91%。2）肉蛋奶类方面,2011年我国人均肉类消费量（猪牛羊禽）为32.84 kg,其中,猪肉消费量占69.85%,禽肉消费量占20.98%,牛羊肉消费量偏低,为9.20%。我国居民平均还消费蛋类10.90 kg、奶类13.56 kg。3）我国城镇居民口粮消费明显低于农村居民,肉蛋奶消费量明显高于农村居民,但农村居民肉蛋奶在外消费的比例要高于城镇居民。4）国家统计局公布的肉蛋奶数据整体上偏低,农村消费数据的偏低程度尤为严重,重点体现在鲜蛋、水产品与鲜奶产品上。国家统计局公布的食品消费数据多与CHNS数据的家庭内部消费数据相吻合,其数据偏小的原因可能是由于缺失户外消费数据的统计。从消费数量上来看,预计今后我国居民口粮消费量的下降空间已经非常有限,但肉蛋奶消费水平仍有较大的抬升空间,农业的生产压力与畜牧饲料大量进口的局面将持续存在。     

基于AGA-PP的农村公共安全综合风险评价方法

为了构建一套有效评价农村公共安全风险的指标体系和评价方法,考虑农村环境承载力影响因素对农村公共安全的制约,围绕农村生态承载力、基础设施承载力、社会承载力和人口承载力4个维度,提出能够全面评价农村公共安全风险的指标体系和基于PP（projection pursuit,投影寻踪）模型的风险评价方法.在风险评价方法构建上,采用AGA（accelerated genetic algorithm,加速遗传算法）对PP模型进行改进,实现投影指标函数的快速优化,在此基础上,采用回归分析方法,将时间序列与一维投影值进行拟合,求得一维投影值的预测曲线,通过对一维投影值的预测,利用信息扩散理论将投影值所携带的风险信息扩散至设定的4个风险等级上,用风险熵计算农村环境承载力发展趋势,并借以评价农村公共安全的风险大小.结果表明:基于AGA-PP的评价方法能够最大限度暴露多维指标数据的结构特征.依据最佳投影方向获得的一维投影值与时间序列拟合后,其拟合精度达到0.027 1,较高的拟合精度保证了后续农村环境承载力风险熵值的可信度,这在一定程度上保证了农村公共安全风险评价的可靠性.研究显示,从农村环境承载力的视角评价农村公共安全风险能够很好地反映农村公共安全风险的现实状况和发展趋势.基于AGA-PP的农村公共安全评价方法简单有效,具有评价精度高且与实际吻合度高的特征,能够为公共安全管理部门提供决策依据和方法参考.      

农村森林防火存在"五缺"、亟待"十改"

经实地调查发现,农村森林防火工作中存在"不管、不扑、不报、不查、不恢复"五个现象,其原因主要在于农村森林防火存在"五缺",即缺人管、缺钱管、缺健全的法制、缺责任制的真实约束和缺激励机制,缺先进扑火设备.由此笔者认为农村森林防火亟待"十改",即,改"五长负责制"为"各级党政一把手负责制"、改"防盗为主"为"防火为主"、改"入海战术"为"精兵上阵"、改"死拼硬打"为"确保生命安全为前提的灵活战术"等等.     

Strategies for Successful Marine Conservation: Integrating Socioeconomic, Political, and Scientific Factors

Abstract:  As the process of marine-protected-area design and implementation evolves, the incorporation of new tools will advance our ability to create and maintain effective protected areas. We reviewed characteristics and approaches that contribute to successful global marine conservation efforts. One successful characteristic emphasized in most case studies is the importance of incorporating stakeholders at all phases of the process. Clearly defined goals and objectives at all stages of the design process are important for improved communication and standardized expectations of stakeholder groups. The inclusion of available science to guide the size and design of marine protected areas and to guide clear monitoring strategies that assess success at scientific, social, and economic levels is also an important tool in the process. Common shortcomings in marine conservation planning strategies include government instability and resultant limitations to monitoring and enforcement, particularly in developing nations. Transferring knowledge to local community members has also presented challenges in areas where in situ training, local capacity, and existing infrastructure are sparse. Inaccessible, unavailable, or outdated science is often a limitation to conservation projects in developed and developing nations. To develop and maintain successful marine protected areas, it is necessary to acknowledge that each case is unique, to apply tools and lessons learned from other marine protected areas, and to maintain flexibility to adjust to the individual circumstances of the case at hand.     

Long-Term Ecosystem Dynamics in the Serengeti: Lessons for Conservation

Abstract:  Data from long-term ecological studies further understanding of ecosystem dynamics and can guide evidence-based management. In a quasi-natural experiment we examined long-term monitoring data on different components of the Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem to trace the effects of disturbances and thus to elucidate cause-and-effect connections between them. The long-term data illustrated the role of food limitation in population regulation in mammals, particularly in migratory wildebeest and nonmigratory buffalo. Predation limited populations of smaller resident ungulates and small carnivores. Abiotic events, such as droughts and floods, created disturbances that affected survivorship of ungulates and birds. Such disturbances showed feedbacks between biotic and abiotic realms. Interactions between elephants and their food allowed savanna and grassland communities to co-occur. With increased woodland vegetation, predators' capture of prey increased. Anthropogenic disturbances had direct (hunting) and indirect (transfer of disease to wildlife) effects. Slow and rapid changes and multiple ecosystem states became apparent only over several decades and involved events at different spatial scales. Conservation efforts should accommodate both infrequent and unpredictable events and long-term trends. Management should plan on the time scale of those events and should not aim to maintain the status quo. Systems can be self-regulating through food availability and predator-prey interactions; thus, culling may not be required. Ecosystems can occur in multiple states; thus, there may be no a priori need to maintain one natural state. Finally, conservation efforts outside protected areas must distinguish between natural change and direct human-induced change. Protected areas can act as ecological baselines in which human-induced change is kept to a minimum     

岷江上游典型村落资源利用与影响动因分析

从耕地占有数量及利用效率、土地资源构成、村落农业生产技术以及村落布局4个方面,研究岷江上游4个典型村落农业资源利用变化特点,认为农业资源禀赋条件、科技进步程度、民族文化和历史因素、制度政策、市场因子以及生态环境状况是形成村落资源利用的基本动因。     

论湖南农村剩余劳动力转移的对策

湖南省在深入学习贯彻“十六大”精神时，落实“十六大”任务、目标及其要求的行动中，结合省内的实际情况，提出了在加快工业化进程的同时，着力解决“三农”问题，特别是农村劳动力转移问题．本文就湖南农村剩余劳动问题谈谈粗浅看法．