水质在线监测中的若干问题

以环境水质自动监测子站的采样和配水系统为切入点，针对不同环节上极易出现的问题，分别提出具体的解决方案。     

Bayesian analysis under ordered functions of parameters

Ordered parameter problems arise in a wide variety of real world situations and are dealt with extensively in the literature. Traditional frequentist methods for dealing with these problems are rather complicated theoretically, especially when sample sizes are small. Bayesian methods are not widely used because high dimensional numerical integration is often required. However, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods provide alternatives to such numerical integration and also deal with ordered parameter problems in a straightforward manner. Little is known about the situation where functions of parameters are ordered. Such problems may seem to be of little practical concern initially, but one can readily see their importance in situations where ordering is placed on the means and variances of several normal or Gamma populations. For the Gamma distribution we will present real examples where we will analyze monthly precipitation data from San Francisco, California and Oakland Mills, Iowa. For the San Francisco data we will simultaneously order both monthly precipitation means and variances. For the Iowa data we will place ordering on seasonal average while still estimating monthly means. Our results show that we would obtain sharper, more accurate inference when order restrictions are employed.     

Comparison of distribution function estimators for forestry applications following variable probability sampling

Practical considerations often motivate employing variable probability sampling designs when estimating characteristics of forest populations. Three distribution function estimators, the Horvitz-Thompson estimator, a difference estimator, and a ratio estimator, are compared following variable probability sampling in which the inclusion probabilities are proportional to an auxiliary variable, X. Relative performance of the estimators is affected by several factors, including the distribution of the inclusion probabilities, the correlation () between X and the response Y, and the position along the distribution function being estimated. Both the ratio and difference estimators are superior to the Horvitz-Thompson estimator. The difference estimator gains better precision than the ratio estimator toward the upper portion of the distribution function, but the ratio estimator is superior toward the lower end of the distribution function. The point along the distribution function at which the difference estimator becomes more precise than the ratio estimator depends on the sampling design, as well as the coefficient of variation of X and . A simple confidence interval procedure provides close to nominal coverage for intervals constructed from both the difference and ratio estimators, with the exception that coverage may be poor for the lower tail of the distribution function when using the ratio estimator.     

试论煤矿井下快速断电安全技术

论述了煤矿井下漏电保护和短路保护装置的现状和实施快速断电安全技术的必要性;介绍了煤矿快速断电安全技术的发展水平;对快速断电安全技术中的几个问题进行了探讨;提出了可行的缩短故障取样时间技术方案     

Window Sensitivity Functions for Line Transect Sampling

L and width 2w, then by a selection of viewing window is meant a choice of w, with the intent being to search for optimal viewing windows, with the goal in mind of improving variances of estimators of population density, reducing sampling effort, while maintaining the property of unbiasedness. The notions of increasing window sensitivity (IWS) and decreasing window sensitivity (DWS) are introduced, and a method of deriving confidence intervals is discussed.     

Complications of cordocentesis in high-risk pregnancies: Effects on fetal loss or preterm delivery

Between 1990 and 1993, 166 cases underwent cordocentesis and were followed for at least the following 4 weeks in the Prenatal Diagnosis and Therapy Centre of Vienna University. The indications for the procedure were structural malformations in 46·4 per cent of the cases, other high-risk diagnoses in 48·8 per cent, and maternal age over 35 years in only 4·8 per cent. We investigated retrospectively all cases of complications resulting in fetal loss or preterm labour. Abortion, intrauterine fetal death, chorioamnionitis, and preterm delivery occurred in 0·6, 5·4, 0·6 and 9·0 per cent of these cases, respectively, adding up to a total of 26 cases (15·7 per cent). Although this rate looks relatively high, 20 of the 26 cases had already displayed signs implying a complicated prognosis. Neither maternal age, gestational age, number of attempts, nor placental location correlated with fetal loss or preterm delivery. Significantly higher rates of fetal loss or preterm delivery were observed when cordocentesis was performed in cases diagnosed as duodenal/intestinal stenosis or hydrops–ascites–hydrothroax/hygroma colli (P=0·0488 and P=0·0005). The frequency of complications did not decrease as the experience of the operators increased.     

Mark-recapture estimators for dual frame population size of prominent nesting structures: the effect of uncertain detection probability

The combined mark-recapture and line transect sampling methodology proposed by Alpizar-Jara and Pollock [Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 3(4), 311–327, 1996; In Marine Mammal Survey and Assessment Methods Symposium. G.W. Garner, S.C. Amstrup, J.L. Laake, B.F.J. Manly, L.L. McDonald, and D.C. Robertson (Eds.), A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, Netherlands, pp. 99–114, 1999] is used to illustrate the estimation of population size for populations with prominent nesting structures (i.e., bald eagle nests). In the context of a bald eagle population, the number of nests in a list frame corresponds to a pre-marked sample of nests, and an area frame corresponds to a set of transect strips that could be regularly monitored. Unlike previous methods based on dual frame methodology using the screening estimator [Haines and Pollock (Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 5, 245–256, 1998a; Survey Methodology, 24(1), 79–88, 1998b)], we no longer need to assume that the area frame is complete (i.e., all the nests in the sampled sites do not need to be seen). One may use line transect sampling to estimate the probability of detection in a sampled area. Combining information from list and area frames provides more efficient estimators than those obtained by using data from only one frame. We derive an estimator for detection probability and generalize the screening estimator. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of the Chapman modification of the Lincoln–Petersen estimator to the screening estimator. Simulation results show that although the Chapman estimator is generally less precise than the screening estimator, the latter can be severely biased in presence of uncertain detection. The screening estimator outperforms the Chapman estimator in terms of mean squared error when detection probability is near 1 wheareas the Chapman estimator outperforms the screening estimator when detection probability is lower than a certain threshold value depending on particular scenarios.     

Randomized clinical trial of transabdominal versus transcervical chorionic villus sampling methods

The relative advantages and disadvantages of transabdominal (TA) and transcervical (TC) chorionic villus sampling (CVS) in terms of fetal risks and efficacy were evaluated in a clinical trial conducted on 1194 women randomized at 7–12 weeks' gestation. The results of the study indicate that, if any, the relative risk of fetal loss following either procedure is less than double that of the alternative technique when performed by a skilled operator. Overall, the fetal loss rate (spontaneous abortions following randomization, terminations of pregnancy, and perinatal deaths) is 16.5 and 15.5 per cent, respectively, among women allocated to TA- and TC-CVS. The two procedures are equally effective, although TA-CVS is associated with a significantly lower rate of repeat device insertions; on the other hand, a higher weight of chorionic tissue is obtained, on average, with TC-CVS. Bleeding is more common following TC-CVS, while peritoneal reaction developed only after TA-CVS. No diagnostic problems specifically related to one sampling technique were identified.     

Prenatal diagnosis in advanced maternal age. Amniocentesis or CVS,a patient's choice or lack of information?

Ninety-six women of advanced maternal age were interviewed about the way they obtained information on prenatal diagnosis and about how the decision was made as to what procedure was to be performed (transabdominal chorionic villus sampling (TA-CVS) or amnio-centesis). In the CVS group, women visited their physician or midwife earlier in pregnancy (mean 7.1 weeks) than those in the amniocentesis group (mean 10.7 weeks). The availability of prenatal diagnosis was not mentioned during the first antenatal visit in 55 per cent of women from the amniocentesis group as opposed to 25 per cent from the TA-CVS group. Approximately 40 per cent of women eligible for prenatal diagnosis did not receive any information from the referring body prior to counselling at our centre. Only 29 per cent of women who underwent amniocentesis had actually chosen this procedure; 71 per cent were too late to undergo TA-CVS at 12 weeks. It is concluded that information to the patient must be improved in order to ensure early referral for prenatal diagnosis.