基于小波神经网络的地下水流数值模拟模型的替代模型研究

以吉林西部为研究区,建立地下水流数值模拟模型,分别应用蒙特卡罗方法和拉丁超立方方法在研究区10个县(市)开采量的可行范围内进行采样,经对比选择拉丁超立方抽样结果得到输入(开采量)—输出(水位降深)数据集,建立小波神经网络模型作为地下水流数值模拟模型的替代模型,而后对替代模型有效性作误差分析,并与多元非线性回归替代模型进行对比.结果显示,2种替代模型在功能上都能逼近地下水流数值模拟模型,但小波神经网络模型得到的水位降深均值和水位降深剩余标准差与模拟模型计算结果的相对误差分别低于多元非线性回归模型76%和45%,说明小波神经网络模型更适合作为地下水流数值模拟模型的替代模型,这为减少优化模型求解过程中直接调用模拟模型所造成的计算负荷提供了一种有效的替代方法.     

民用燃料燃烧排放PM2.5和PM10中碳组分排放因子对比

在实验室中模拟民用燃料在家庭炉灶中的燃烧,应用稀释通道系统采集颗粒物,获得玉米秸秆、薪柴、蜂窝煤和块煤四种常用民用燃料燃烧排放PM10,PM2.5及载带碳组分的排放因子.结果表明,民用燃料燃烧排放的颗粒物以细颗粒为主, PM2.5占PM10的70%~90%.颗粒物排放因子最大的为块煤,其PM2.5和PM10的排放因子分别为9.837和11.929g/kg,分别是蜂窝煤的12.6和13.7倍;玉米秸秆和薪柴PM2.5和PM10的排放因子稍低于块煤,为7.359~10.444g/kg.4种燃料燃烧OC排放因子块煤最高,其在PM2.5和PM10中分别为5.29和5.19g/kg.薪柴燃烧EC的排放因子最高,其在PM2.5和PM10 中的排放因子分别为1.065和1.126g/kg.块煤两种粒径上EC的排放因子略低于薪柴.蜂窝煤EC的排放因子最低,比薪柴低300倍左右,玉米秸秆EC的排放因子也要比薪柴低10倍左右.碳组分是块煤,秸秆,薪柴排放颗粒物的主要成分,其含量在40%~60%之间,该值比蜂窝煤高3倍.四种燃料对应的OC/EC比值差异很大,薪柴和块煤燃烧排放颗粒该值为3~6,秸秆和蜂窝煤燃烧排放颗粒其值高达30~50.     

Investigation on sampling artifacts of particle associated PAHs using ozone denuder systems

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons （PAHs） are complex organic compounds which are identified as significant carcinogenic to human health. PAHs （mainly in particle phase） are susceptible to atmospheric oxidant gases, especially ozone, nitrogen oxides （NOx）, hydroxyl radical （OH）, and could be degraded on filters during sampling process, leading to an underestimation of ambient PAH concentrations. The goal of this work was to investigate particle associated PAHs sampling artifacts caused by ozone in summer of Beijing. Comparative sampling systems were operated simultaneously during the whole campaign, one with activated carbon ozone denuder, the other being set as conventional sampling system. Activated carbon denuder was testified to be highly efficient to eliminate ozone from air stream. In general, nine particle-bound PAHs observed from conventional sampler were all lower than those from ozone denuder system. The total PAHs （particle phase） concentration was averagely underestimated by 35.9% in conventional sampling procedure. Benzo[a]pyrene （BaP） had the highest percentage of mass loss. founded to have influences Ambient temperature was on PAHs sampling artifacts. High temperature can increase loss of particle associated PAHs during sampling.     

Employment of passive sampling in monitoring indoor air quality in selected residences in a Tri-city area in Poland

Time-weighted average concentrations of selected volatile compounds were measured in chosen residences in a Tri-City area of Poland by means of passive sampling. The results were compared to those obtained by dynamic technique – sorption tubes filled with Tenax TA sorbent. Results obtained by employing the two techniques were similar. Total volatile organic compound (TVOC) parameters were also determined. An attempt was also made to evaluate the influence of outdoor air pollutants on indoor air quality.     

Assessing citizen contributions to butterfly monitoring in two large cities

Citizen science may be especially effective in urban landscapes due to the large pool of potential volunteers. However, there have been few evaluations of the contributions of citizen scientists to knowledge of biological communities in and around cities. To assess the effectiveness of citizen scientists' monitoring of species in urban areas, we compared butterfly data collected over 10 years in Chicago, Illinois (U.S.A.), and New York City, New York (U.S.A.). The dates, locations, and methods of data collection in Chicago were standardized, whereas data from New York were collected at any location at any time. For each city, we evaluated whether the number of observers, observation days (days on which observations were reported), and sampling locations were associated with the reported proportion of the estimated regional pool of butterfly species. We also compared the number of volunteers, duration of volunteer involvement, and consistency of sampling efforts at individual locations within each city over time. From 2001 to 2010, there were 73 volunteers in Chicago and 89 in New York. During this period, volunteers observed 86% and 89% of the estimated number of butterfly species present in Chicago and New York, respectively. Volunteers in New York reported a greater proportion of the estimated pool of butterfly species per year. In addition, more species were observed per volunteer and observation day in New York, largely due to the unrestricted sampling season in New York. Chicago volunteers were active for more years and monitored individual locations more consistently over time than volunteers in New York. Differences in monitoring protocol--especially length of sampling season and selection protocol for monitoring locations--influenced the relationship between species accrual and sampling effort, which suggests these factors are important in volunteer-based species-monitoring programs.     

A System for Measuring Vertical Concentration Profiles of Gaseous Pollutants,Using Carbon Dioxide as a Case Study

An electronically-controlled sampling system, characterised by its organ pipe design, has been developed for sampling air sequentially, at different heights within the breathing zone. Data are automatically logged at the different receptor levels, for the determination of the average vertical concentration profile of gaseous pollutants. The system has been coupled to a carbon dioxide monitor and used in a brief study of the spatial and temporal variation of indoor carbon dioxide concentration. The system can easily be extended for different heights or modified for use with other types of gas monitor. The results of a trial run, which was carried out in a coffee room, are presented and applications of the Organ Pipe Sequential Sampling (OPSS) system are discussed.     

Escherichia coli Concentrations in Urban Watersheds Exhibit Diurnal Sag: Implications for Water‐Quality Monitoring and Assessment

The variability of indicator bacteria over a fine resolution time scale on the order of minutes has yet to be fully understood. In this study, we collected more than 700 Escherichia coli samples at a 10‐ and 30‐min resolution in an urban watershed in Houston. A Bacteria Diurnal Sag (BDS) marked with daytime exponential decay followed by an exponential nighttime regeneration was observed. This pattern was observed during all sampled events but varied depending on other variables. The concentrations during a 24‐h period varied 1 to 5 orders of magnitude and the fecal load was at least 10 times lower than what would be obtained using a single morning E. coli measurement, the typical sampling scheme in most monitoring programs. Decay rates, ranging from 3.67 to 24.7/day, decreased E. coli concentrations to below the water‐quality standards from 14:00 to 18:00 h and were strongly influenced by water temperatures and solar radiation intensities. Rapid regeneration occurred on the order of 9.41 to 64.1/day allowing E. coli concentrations to return to their pre‐decay levels. The data indicated that four to six samples taken between 06:00 and 18:00 h may be sufficient to define the BDS depending on stream conditions, and that a threshold concentration of approximately 100 MPN/dl (most probable number in a deciliter) existed for the studied urban watershed. These findings have significant implications for water‐quality monitoring, regulation, and compliance.     

固定燃烧源颗粒物稀释采样系统的研制与应用

为研究固定燃烧源颗粒物排放特征,研制开发了稀释烟道采样系统.该系统能模拟高温烟气排放到大气中的冷却、稀释、凝结等物理化学过程,捕集燃烧源排放的一次颗粒物.详细阐述了采样系统的结构并对系统进行了检验.整个采样系统稳定度高,测量结果可靠,操作简便.采样系统小型化设计,适合于现场应用.该系统已成功应用于我国典型燃烧源颗粒物排放特征研究.     

基于重要抽样法的耐压球壳可靠性计算方法研究

目的 解决耐压球壳极小失效概率的可靠性计算问题。方法 在自适应Kriging的基础上,结合重要抽样法提出耐压球壳可靠性计算方法。该方法在较大失效概率下构建的Kriging模型基础上获得重要方向,在重要方向上计算得到较低失效概率下的设计点,以设计点为中心,构建小失效概率的Kriging模型,并通过此模型采用重要抽样法开展可靠性计算。结果 分别使用提出的重要抽样法和蒙特卡洛法计算了2个算例的失效概率,计算结果表明,该方法具有较高的精度和效率。使用该方法对某耐压球壳工作载荷下的失效概率进行了计算,计算得到该球壳失效概率为4.094×10^–96。结论 研究结果可为无失效方程下极低失效概率的可靠性计算问题提供参考。     

Proposing an information criterion for individual-based models developed in a pattern-oriented modelling framework

Individual-based models (IBMs) have been improved in quality and reliability in recent years with an approach called pattern-oriented modelling (POM). POM proposes guidelines to develop models reproducing multiple patterns observed on the field and to test systematically how well the IBMs reproduce them. POM studies used generally traditional methods of goodness of fit such as the sum of squares evaluation or ad hoc comparisons of fitting errors and variations. Model selection, however, can be a rigorous statistical approach based on information theory and information criteria such as the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) or the deviance information criterion (DIC). So far, it has not been tried to link POM to these rigorous techniques. The main problems to achieve that are: (a) the difficulty to have likelihood functions for IBMs’ parameters and (b) the possibility to obtain posterior distributions of IBMs’ parameters given the patterns to reproduce. In a first part, this paper answers problem (a) by proposing and explaining how to calculate a deviance measure (POMDEV) for models developed in a context of POM. And while answering the second problem, a second part of the paper proposes an information criterion for model selection in a POM context (the pattern-oriented modelling information criterion: POMIC). This criterion does not yet have the same theoretical foundation as, e.g., AIC, but uses formal analogies to the DIC. In a third part POMIC is tested with a modelling exercise. This exercise shows the potential of POMIC to use multiple patterns for selecting among multiple potential submodels and eventually select the most parsimonious and well fitting model version. We conclude that POMIC, although being a heuristically derived approach, can greatly improve the POM framework.