淮南市可吸入颗粒物研究的若干建议

由于可吸入颗粒物严重影响大气环境质量和人体健康,对其研究愈来愈受到重视.我国北京、南京、重庆等城市对可吸入颗粒物均做过系统的研究,而目前在淮南市仍是空白.总结近年来可吸入颗粒物方面的研究成果,对淮南市在此方面的研究提出若干建议,供研究者参考.     

利用PUF被动采样技术监测珠江三角洲地区大气中多氯联苯分布

研究了珠江三角洲地区大气中多氯联苯的含量与分布.利用大气被动采样装置,共设立了包括香港在内的珠江三角洲21个大气被动采样点,样品采样时间为2005-08-15～2005-10-14.结果表明,珠三角内地的佛山(2000pg·m-3)是PCBs的高污染地区,内地采样点PCBs含量范围260～2000pg·m-3,平均值670pg·m-3.香港PCBs含量范围170～470pg·m-3,平均值300pg·m-3.香港每个采样点的PCBs含量都接近平均值,含量比较低.珠三角大气中PCBs含量与世界其它地区相比属中度污染区域.结果也表明,PUF大气被动采样器可很好地运用于区域大气PCBs污染分布与特征的对比研究.     

干旱内陆河流湿地景观破碎化模型构建与尺度分析——以黑河中游湿地为例

尺度的选择一直是地理学及景观生态学的研究重点和热点。在遥感和GIS的支持下,以黑河中游湿地为例,利用移动窗口技术和空间形态学准则构建湿地类型变化追踪模型;利用面积频率统计法、卡方分布归一化尺度方差、分维数距平和多样性指数探讨干旱内陆河流湿地类型变化追踪模型的适宜和最佳窗口尺度。结果表明：1）类型变化追踪模型能实现基于像元的湿地景观空间格局分析,弥补传统湿地景观破碎化研究主要基于景观和斑块类型水平尺度,难以深入解析湿地空间演变过程的不足;2）黑河中游湿地类型变化追踪模型的适宜窗口尺度为150 m×150 m~450 m×450 m,最佳窗口尺度为250 m×250 m。该结果是进一步研究黑河中游湿地空间破碎化特征的基础,同时对于丰富干旱内陆河流湿地景观破碎化研究尺度选择有一定积极作用。     

面向粮食产量空间化的多元回归分析模型中的两个关键问题探讨

为比较不同区域尺度变量对模型拟合效果的影响,在全国不分区和分区两种情况下,分别基于县级和地市级两个区域尺度上的样本构建粮食产量与水田、水浇地、旱地面积之间的多元线性回归模型,结果显示,用地市级数据作分析样本比用县级数据作分析样本好,分区建模比不分区建模效果好。因此,将全国划分为7个区,以地市级数据作为区域尺度的变量,在区域、栅格、亚栅格三个尺度上探讨变量（因变量、自变量）尺度和常数项取值这两个因素对模型应用的影响。得到以下结论：1）基于区域尺度样本构建的多元回归模型,如果常数项不为0,则不能用于空间化计算;如果常数项为0,则可以用于空间化计算;2）基于栅格尺度样本构建的多元回归模型,不论常数项是否为0,均可应用于空间化计算;3）基于亚栅格尺度样本构建的多元回归模型,不论其常数项是否为0,也均可用于空间化计算,但需要将计算结果乘以一个系数,该系数等于栅格单元面积与亚栅格单元面积的比值。上述结论对其他类型的统计数据空间化具有指导和参考价值。     

利用POCIS技术监测城市地表水中全氟化合物

采用一种针对水体中全氟化合物的改进的极性有机化合物整合采样技术(POCIS)进行了不同水流速度下污染物的吸附动力学,以及水流速度对全氟化合物在该采样器上采样速率的影响研究.结果表明,在不同水流速度下7种全氟化合物在放置时间10d内呈线性关系.POCIS对全氟化合物的采样速率随着水流速度(0.085~0.0018m/s)的降低而减小,但是对个别物质如全氟十一酸的采样速率无明显影响.将所建立的POCIS采样方法应用于南京市地表水中,并与常规的主动监测方法进行比较,发现利用POCIS采样技术推算出的污染物时间权重浓度和两次主动采样测定浓度基本一致.     

DOM对被动采样技术的影响与应用

主要研究了不同浓度的天然溶解性有机物(DOM)对单片膜被动采样技术的影响.结果表明,DOM的存在会影响膜吸附有机污染物的能力:当lg KOW为3~5时,DOM对膜吸附有机物的影响较小;当lg KOW5.5时,DOM会显著增强膜的吸附能力.同时,通过低密度聚乙烯膜(LDPE)被动采样技术对太子河流域3个表层沉积物的孔隙水进行多环芳烃类(PAHs)和邻苯二甲酸酯类(PAEs)监测.结果表明,所选取的几种目标污染物在各监测点均有不同程度的检出.最后,利用商值法对太子河流域的PAHs和PAEs进行生态风险评价.结果表明,荧蒽超过水生生态基准值,其生态风险较大.     

Incorporating layer- and local-scale heterogeneities in numerical simulation of unsaturated flow and tracer transport

This study characterizes layer- and local-scale heterogeneities in hydraulic parameters (i.e., matrix permeability and porosity) and investigates the relative effect of layer- and local-scale heterogeneities on the uncertainty assessment of unsaturated flow and tracer transport in the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain, USA. The layer-scale heterogeneity is specific to hydrogeologic layers with layerwise properties, while the local-scale heterogeneity refers to the spatial variation of hydraulic properties within a layer. A Monte Carlo method is used to estimate mean, variance, and 5th, and 95th percentiles for the quantities of interest (e.g., matrix saturation and normalized cumulative mass arrival). Model simulations of unsaturated flow are evaluated by comparing the simulated and observed matrix saturations. Local-scale heterogeneity is examined by comparing the results of this study with those of the previous study that only considers layer-scale heterogeneity. We find that local-scale heterogeneity significantly increases predictive uncertainty in the percolation fluxes and tracer plumes, whereas the mean predictions are only slightly affected by the local-scale heterogeneity. The mean travel time of the conservative and reactive tracers to the water table in the early stage increases significantly due to the local-scale heterogeneity, while the influence of local-scale heterogeneity on travel time gradually decreases over time. Layer-scale heterogeneity is more important than local-scale heterogeneity for simulating overall tracer travel time, suggesting that it would be more cost-effective to reduce the layer-scale parameter uncertainty in order to reduce predictive uncertainty in tracer transport.     

大空间建筑烟气填充研究方法的对比

为了对大空间建筑烟气填充研究方法进行对比分析。以一个废弃的大空间仓库为研究对象,采用了全尺寸火灾实验、计算机数值模拟和理论分析相互应用验证的研究方法,研究理论及数值模拟两种火灾烟气层高度的描述方法的准确性。结果表明当采用t2火模型时,在与现实的吻合程度方面,数值模拟〉Zukoski理论模型〉Yamana-Tanaka理论模型;随着火灾的不断发展,相对误差逐渐增大。通过对比分析发现,全尺寸实验、理论模型和数值模拟三种方法相互验证可以更好地保证研究的准确性;总结得到了两种与现实较吻合的描述烟气层高度的理论方法,并且提出减小误差应注意的几点事项,包括尽可能提高火源热释放速率、烟气层温度描述的准确性;不考虑火源热量通过建筑边界结构散失等。     

中国工业SO2排放量动态变化分析

中国工业SO2减排工作的重点。经济增长、经济空间结构变化、技术进步是影响污染物排放量变化的三个重要因素。在分析我国工业SO2排放量、排放结构、排放强度等变化趋势的基础上,通过构建对数平均权重分解模型定量分解经济增长、结构变化、技术进步这3个因素对工业SO2排放量变化的贡献。结果表明：（1）中国工业SO2排放量年均增长48.7×10^4 t,年均增长率为3.2%,且2002—2006年增速加快;（2）分地区看,1991年以来,东部地区SO2排放量所占比重明显下降,中部地区略有上升,而西部地区所占比重增加显著;（3）单位产值工业SO2排放强度在研究期内迅速降低,年均下降幅度为8.4%,对减缓SO2排放量的过快增长起到了积极作用;（4）经济增长平均每年促进SO2排放量增长183.7×10^4 t,技术进步则平均每年使SO2排放量减少134.2×10^4 t,空间结构因素平均每年减少SO2排放量0.8×10^4 t。可以看出,长期以来,虽然我国的技术水平有了一定程度提高,但经济规模的扩张使中国工业SO2排放量持续增长,对中国环境压力形成了巨大压力,同时,经济总量在不同地区的分配对SO2排放量的影响也在不断变化中。     

Matching the Multiple Scales of Conservation with the Multiple Scales of Climate Change

Abstract:  To anticipate the rapidly changing world resulting from global climate change, the projections of climate models must be incorporated into conservation. This requires that the scales of conservation be aligned with the scales of climate-change projections. We considered how conservation has incorporated spatial scale into protecting biodiversity, how the projections of climate-change models vary with scale, and how the two do or do not align. Conservation planners use information about past and current ecological conditions at multiple scales to identify conservation targets and threats and guide conservation actions. Projections of climate change are also made at multiple scales, from global and regional circulation models to projections downscaled to local scales. These downscaled projections carry with them the uncertainties associated with the broad-scale models from which they are derived; thus, their high resolution may be more apparent than real. Conservation at regional or global scales is about establishing priorities and influencing policy. At these scales, the coarseness and uncertainties of global and regional climate models may be less important than what they reveal about possible futures. At the ecoregional scale, the uncertainties associated with downscaling climate models become more critical because the distributions of conservation targets on which plans are founded may shift under future climates. At a local scale, variations in topography and land cover influence local climate, often overriding the projections of broad-scale climate models and increasing uncertainty. Despite the uncertainties, ecologists and conservationists must work with climate-change modelers to focus on the most likely projections. The future will be different from the past and full of surprises; judicious use of model projections at appropriate scales may help us prepare.