对自然资源的再思考

自然资源问题历来受到人们的重视。本文从人类利用的角度，进一步剖析了自然资源的定义和本质，导出自然资源能否持续利用是资源短缺问题的关键，归纳出造成资源短缺的四个主要原因。最后，以人类活动与地理环境相互作用为出发点，提出资源科学是以自然资源系统为研究对象的学科体系。     

两种管理科学方法在城市化SEA中的应用

城市化和城市发展已经成为世界关注的焦点。正确看待城市化SEA，并将管理科学中的方法结合，从定性到定量综合集成(meta—synthesis)引入城市化SEA进行初步探讨。     

盐度胁迫对云纹石斑鱼鳃离子调节酶及渗透压的影响

为探讨云纹石斑鱼鳃离子调节酶活力及血清渗透压对盐度骤降的响应,设置4个盐度梯度(27、21、15和9)对云纹石斑鱼进行盐度骤降胁迫试验,在0、1 d、2 d、3 d和7 d时取样,测定其鳃中Na+/K+-ATP(NKA)酶、Ca~(2+)-ATP酶(Ca~(2+)-ATPase)、琥珀酸脱氢酶(SDH)、乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)活力及血清渗透压。结果表明,盐度21组与15组NKA及Ca~(2+)-ATPase活力在第1 d大幅上升,显著高于对照组(p0.05),随后下降趋于稳定,而盐度9组NKA及Ga2+-ATPase活力一直呈下降趋势;血清渗透压呈先下降后上升的变化趋势(p0.05);SDH活力变化与离子酶一致(p0.05);LDH活力变化与离子酶相反(p0.05)。研究表明,在盐度骤降的情况下,云纹石斑鱼鳃进行渗透压调节分为两个阶段,一是应激反应阶段,此时NKA及Ca~(2+)-ATPase迅速升高,血清渗透压降低;二是适应阶段,离子酶活力下降趋于稳定,血清渗透压升高恢复至正常水平,而且SDH与LDH酶活力也相应变化,为渗透压调节提供能量。     

旧工业建筑再生利用项目施工安全的评价及改进

针对旧工业建筑再生利用项目施工过程中存在诸多安全隐患的问题,首先,结合此类项目遗留工业垃圾冗杂、施工场地狭窄、部分构件拆换、大型机械使用受限的施工特点从4MTE角度构建施工安全评价指标体系。然后,在考虑指标赋权的主客观综合性与评价工作的未确知性后,建立了基于结构熵权法与未确知测度理论的旧工业建筑再生利用项目施工安全评价模型,并通过工程实例验证该模型,得出的评价结果与实际情况相符。最后,结合未确知测度单因素指标测度函数的特点,提出了施工安全管理改进策略的制定方法。     

民航维修人员习惯性违章行为的SD建模研究

掌握习惯性违章行为形成过程中的反馈机制和发展规律可以为消除习惯性违章行为提供理论依据。基于系统动力学(SD)理论,建立了民航机务维修人员习惯性违章行为的动态模型,利用VENSIM软件模拟仿真。结果表明,惩罚力度从第1等级(惩罚力度由小到大分别对应1~10等级)到第6等级时,习惯性违章行为活跃水平依次减小,从第6等级到第10等级时,习惯性违章行为活跃水平依次增加。此外习惯性违章行为活跃水平对工作单卡的合理程度敏感性最强,组织应优先提高工作单卡的合理程度。     

A practical dialogue protocol for sustainability science to contribute to regional resources management: its implementation in Réunion

Over the last decade, adaptive co‐management has been recommended as a policy framework to address complex and uncertain resources management issues. Implementing this theoretical management concept requires the integration of multidisciplinary research and local knowledge. Yet practical protocols to link science, policymaking and societies have yet to be developed. We designed a protocol to produce legitimate, credible and relevant solutions to a regional resources management issue. This is a two‐component protocol. A stakeholder grid categorizes stakeholder representatives in three distinct specialized dialogue arenas: institution representatives, technical experts and local end‐users. An iterative co‐design process then builds on these arenas to assess the institutional legitimacy, technical credibility and empirical relevance dimensions of a common solution initiated by an initial plausible promise. We tested this framework in Réunion to address organic waste management issues at the regional level. The plausible solution explored was the introduction of a recycling industry involved in collecting organic waste and producing and selling organic fertilizers tailored for local crop systems. The protocol application outcomes were consolidated and documented scenarios accepted by all, with knowledge exchange and the broad spread of a stabilized expectation contributing to private initiatives and public policy change.     

Procedural influences on scientific advisory work: the case of chemical hazard characterization

The quality of science for policy depends as much on the robustness of available scientific knowledge as it does on the procedural settings and working procedures in safety agencies. Using a report on Bisphenol A as a case study, and a set of original criteria, we provide an understanding of procedural influences on the results of scientific advisory committees and about literature reviews for chemical hazard characterization. Expert elicitation revealed that three aspects are critically important for the results of the advisory activity and for the selected case study: the method used to combine different studies, the interpretation of the review results in terms of level of evidence and conclusiveness, and the choice of uncertainty factors. Our results also show how procedural settings and working procedures can promote the invisible influence of values and policy on scientific advisory activities.     

Development of an Earthen Dam Break Database

Earthen embankment dams comprise 85% of all major operational dams in the United States. Assessment of peak flow rates for these earthen dams and the impacts on dam failure are of high interest to engineers and planners. Regression analysis is a frequently used risk assessment approach for earthen dams. In this paper, we present a decision support tool for assessing the applicability of nine regression equations commonly used by practitioners. Using data from 108 case studies, six parameters were observed to be significant factors predicting for peak flow as a metric for risk analysis. We present our work on an expanded earthen dam break database that relates the regression equations and underlying data. A web application, regression selection tool, is also presented to assess the appropriateness of a given model for a given test point. This graphical display allows users to visualize how their data point compares with the data used for the regression equation. These contributions improve estimates and better inform decision makers regarding operational and safety decisions.     

“大数据”预测分析与三丁基锡暴露有关疾病

通过毒理学“大数据”,挖掘三丁基锡（TBT）潜在的生物影响信息,预测分析TBT暴露与人类相关疾病的关系.通过比较毒理组学数据库（CTD）搜集到488个和TBT具有相互作用的基因.基因相互作用网络图显示TP53拥有相关联基因最多,处于中心地位;其次是ESR1和FN1.CTD分析与TBT相关的疾病,发现前10类疾病分别是癌症、神经系统疾病、心血管疾病、泌尿生殖系统疾病（女）、消化系统疾病、代谢疾病、泌尿生殖系统疾病（男）、内分泌系统疾病、免疫系统疾病、呼吸道疾病.KEGG通路和DAVID基因功能注释分析,发现TBT不仅和代谢性疾病有较高的关联性,其相互作用基因在糖代谢途径上亦有较密集的基因功能注释.PASS的活性预测也发现TBT可能影响多种与糖代谢相关的酶生物活性.这提示TBT对糖代谢相关疾病的影响应引起人们的注意.     

化工企业安全风险管控信息系统的研究与应用

为提升企业的安全风险管控水平,以R化工厂的甲醇成品罐区为例,运用系统的危险源辨识方法对其设备、工艺过程、切罐、倒罐操作程序、生产作业活动等进行系统全面的危险源辨识,形成安全风险信息数据库。基于安全风险信息数据库,开发各种风险管控工具。利用信息化技术,构建安全风险管控信息系统,对企业实行动态化的安全管理。