江苏白垩纪陆相层序地层研究

系统的探讨了区内白垩纪地层的划分与沉积相特征，深入研究了陆相地层的层序发育特征。指出，无论冲积扇、河流、三角洲或湖泊沉积的陆相地层层序均受地层基准面控制。地层基准面穿越旋回控制着陆相环境重大层序分布。根据不同时间间隔的基准面穿越旋回序次，将陆相层序划分为盆地充填层序、构造层序、层序、亚层序及小层序五个级别。每个层序根据基准面波动可划分为基准面上升沉积体系域和基准面下降沉积体系域，并可根据亚层序组的叠置特征进一步细分。根据上述陆相地层层序划分原理，作者将研究区白垩纪陆相地层划分为三个构造层序，并初步将葛村组划分为五个、浦口组四个、赤山组三个和泰州组三个沉积层序。     

Annual and Diurnal Wind Patterns in the City of São Paulo

The major topographic, mesoscale, and urban influences on the wind patterns of the City of São Paulo are characterized using one year of surface wind velocity data observed at 11 surface stations within its urban limits. The data was used to study the diurnal and annual variations of wind velocity and horizontal wind divergence within the city. Results showed that the circulation over the investigated area is dominated by three major factors: sea breeze; mountain-valley circulations; and urban effects, such as roughness, building-barrier, and urban heat island. The sea breeze was found to be the dominant feature of the monthly-averaged diurnal variation of São Paulo surface winds during the eight warmest months of the year. The sea breeze front induces a velocity minimum at the time of its passage and a post-frontal afternoon velocity maximum. Mountain-valley thermal effects on the flow can be seen in the temporal divergence/convergence patterns. These thermal effects tend to be more important during colder months, at night, and when the wind velocities are low. Nighttime downslope convergent flows are present over the city during winter and spring and daytime upslope divergent flows are present over the city during summer months.     

西江年最高水位的神经网络预报模型

对西江洪水发生的特征进行分析表明，洪水发生频率高，具有明显阶段性特征，并与流域面雨量密切相关。利用前期环流场、海表温度（SST）场及环流特征量资料选择初选预报因子，然后对初选预报因子作EOF分解构造综合预报因子，结合人工神经网络方法建立了西江年最高水位预报模型，并对预报模型进行独立样本试验。结果表明，该预报模型对历史样本拟合精度高，试报效果明显好于传统的逐步回归模型，可在汛期预测业务中应用。     

对安全人性化需求规律的研究

以人为本是现代安全管理的重要原则 ,在生产经营活动中 ,保障人的生命更安全、更健康 ,生活更幸福 ,既是安全管理的重要目的 ,也是人类生活的必然需求。但是 ,人民提高生命质量的安全需求是多方面的、复杂的。通过对人类生存、繁衍和发展的历史进行深入分析发现 ,人的安全需求与马斯洛的层次需求理论有相似之处 ,虽然内涵不同 ,但需求总是由低层次向高层次发展 ,当一种低层需求得到满足后 ,更高层次的需求就占据支配地位 ,成为人的行为激励因素。笔者从人性化的角度对安全需求层次类型、每一层次的特征、发展规律进行了探讨 ,其结果有助于安全管理有针对性、科学性、时效性地进行宏观决策和微观调控 ,也有助于更好地增加安全投入 ,从而提高安全生产水平。把握人性化需求规律 ,对保护人们在生产过程中的安全和健康 ,处理好人的生命价值与安全生产、经济效益、社会效益之间的关系 ,有重要的现实意义。     

基于GIS技术的海塘防洪减灾信息系统

海塘工程的规划、设计、建设、维护和管理,对沿海省份经济发展和人民生命财产的安全十分重要,历来受到政府和沿海居民的高度重视.介绍了基于GIS技术的海塘防洪减灾信息系统的主要功能及逻辑结构,分析了海塘数据库的特点,详细讨论了海塘属性和空间数据库的建库内容及方法.最后通过应用实例,验证了系统技术路线的合理性、正确性和实用性.     

The Water Fluxes of the Yellow River to the Sea in the Past 50 Years, in Response to Climate Change and Human Activities

Since the 1970s, the water fluxes to the sea of the Yellow River have declined significantly. Based on data of precipitation, air temperature, the measured and “natural” river flow, the water diversion and consumption, and the areas of erosion and sediment control measures over the drainage basin, water fluxes to the sea of the Yellow River are studied in relation with the influences of changing climate and human activities. The Yellow River basin can be divided into different water source areas; multiple regression indicates that the variation in precipitation over different water source areas has different effect on water fluxes to the sea. In the period between 1970 and 1997, averaged air temperature over the whole Yellow River increased by about 1.0°C, from 16.5°C to 17.5°C, a factor that is negatively correlated with the water yield of the Yellow River. Water diversion and consumption has sharply increased and resulted in a significant decline in the water fluxes to the sea. Since the 1960s, erosion and sediment control measures have been practiced over the drainage basin. This factor, to a lesser degree, is also responsible for the decrease in water fluxes to the sea. A multiple regression equation has been established to estimate the change in water fluxes to the sea caused by the changes in precipitation, air temperature, water diversion and consumption, erosion, and sediment control measures, indicating that the contribution of water diversion and consumption to the variation in annual water flux to the sea is 41.3%, that of precipitation is 40.8%, that of temperature is 11.4%, and that of erosion and sediment control measures is 6.5%.     

Water sharing agreements sustainable to reduced flows

By signing a water sharing agreement (WSA), countries agree to release an amount of river water in exchange for a negotiated compensation. We examine the vulnerability of such agreements to reduced water flows. Among all WSAs that are acceptable to riparian countries, we find out the one which is self-enforced under the most severe drought scenarios. The so-called upstream incremental WSA assigns to each country its marginal contribution to its followers in the river. Its mirror image, the downstream incremental WSA, is not sustainable to reduced flow at the source. Self-enforcement problems can be solved by setting water releases and compensations contingent to water flow. We apply our analysis to the Aral Sea Basin. We compute the upstream incremental compensations for the Bishkek agreement and asses its vulnerability with historical flows.     

干湿循环对三峡支流消落带沉积物中可转化态氮及其形态分布的影响

水体富营养化的形成与沉积物中氮素的"源-汇"关系密切,本研究选取三峡典型支流澎溪河消落带上、中、下这3个水文断面,160 m和170 m两个水位高程,0~20、20~40、40~60、60~80、80~100 cm共5个深度的沉积物样品,通过研究其总可转化态氮(TF-N)与各形态可转化态氮含量及分布特征,旨在揭示周期性水位变化对消落带沉积物氮释放的影响.结果表明,澎溪河消落带沉积物总氮含量在313.02~3 255.53 mg·kg-1之间,空间分布上呈上站位(渠口)中站位(高阳)下站位(双江)的趋势;总可转化态氮含量范围为288.54~1 123.27mg·kg-1,均值为639.40 mg·kg-1,空间分布趋势与总氮一致;TF-N中各形态氮的大小顺序为:OSF-N(有机态和硫化物结合态)IMOF-N(铁锰结合态)CF-N(碳酸盐结合态)IEF-N(离子交换态).沉积物中TF-N主要以OSF-N(50.9%)和IMOF-N(33.3%)形态存在.OSF-N很难释放,不易参与氮循环.IMOF-N受水文条件影响显著,表现为在低水位高程和下采样站位沉积物中含量更低.淹水胁迫、水体富营养化等情况下氧含量较低,相对还原条件下有利于其向水体释放.而TF-N及其形态分布在垂直深度上无显著差异.可见,三峡库区特殊调蓄水制度加速了澎溪河下游、低水位高程消落带沉积物中IMOF-N向水体的释放.     

危险废物焚烧厂环境污染控制与风险管理水平评价指标体系研究与应用

采用德尔菲法、层次分析法和五分制综合评分法,构建了危险废物焚烧厂环境污染控制与风险管理水平评价指标体系。从选址、技术和管理的角度,制定了31个评价指标,并归纳为8个准则层指标群,通过计算权重和对评价指标的赋分,实现对危险废物焚烧厂环境污染控制与风险管理水平的量化评价。应用结果表明:华南某市两家危险废物焚烧厂的环境污染控制与风险管理水平分值分别为3.34和4.38,分别处于良好和先进的水平。     

雷达海杂波统计特性建模研究

介绍了海杂波统计特性建模的幅度特性、多普勒谱及空间相关这三个方面的研究状况,对各种建模的思路和模型效果进行了对比总结。对于幅度均值已有多个较为成熟的模型,但适用范围不同,结果差异也很大。幅度分布建模重点解决拖尾问题,复合建模是趋势。除平均谱外,开始研究短时多普勒谱。空间相关性建模主要建立空间相关长度与雷达及海洋参数间的联系,但是研究还不够全面。总的来看,已由单纯经验建模发展为力图在机理研究指导下有一定物理意义的建模。尽管海杂波建模效果愈来愈接近实际,但建模依然存在诸多问题。