基于贝叶斯网络的化工园区地震次生灾害情景分析

为了研究化工园区内发生地震灾害后的事故演化过程,利用事故链模型对地震次生灾害演化过程进行分析,并将其转化为贝叶斯网络,确定各节点的变量与状态取值范围;通过相关文献及专家经验判断分析,获得贝叶斯网络中各节点的条件概率;依据贝叶斯网络的推理策略,比较不同地震烈度下,各化工事故发生的后验概率值,并探讨应急救援的及时性对地震次生灾害发生概率的影响,从关键要素遏制化工事故的发生,采取针对性的应对措施,尽可能的降低化工事故,有效的降低人员伤亡及财产损失。     

希瓦氏菌还原作用下黄钾铁矾的相转变特征及其负载铬的迁移转化规律

黄钾铁矾对酸性矿山废水中铬（Cr）等污染物有较好的固定去除作用.微生物活动对黄钾铁矾的稳定性和Cr的迁移转化特性有重要影响.因此,本研究在厌氧条件下,通过批次实验研究了希瓦氏菌MR-1还原溶解负载Cr黄钾铁矾过程中二次矿物的形成和Cr污染物的迁移转化特性.结果表明,希瓦氏菌能够促进黄钾铁矾的还原溶解.Cr负载能够增强黄钾铁矾的稳定性,抑制矿物的溶解转化.在不含Cr实验组,黄钾铁矾相转变产物为蓝铁矿和针铁矿;而在负载Cr实验组,二次矿物仅为蓝铁矿.在希瓦氏菌还原溶解负载Cr黄钾铁矾的过程中,矿物中有少量的Cr溶出,进入水体,随后又被吸附于新形成的二次矿物中.矿物中的Cr由原来的残渣态转化为不定型铁结合态,固相中Cr释放的风险增大.XPS检测结果表明,矿物表面的Cr（Ⅵ）被还原为Cr（Ⅲ）,Cr的毒性降低.研究结果对进一步理解酸性矿山废水中Fe、S和Cr的地球化学循环过程有重要意义.     

基于典型站位AERONET数据气溶胶类型分析

气溶胶是影响大气环境的重要因素,气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）是气溶胶的重要光学特征参数之一,气溶胶类型分析可以对区域大气研究提供科学依据.基于2015年12月—2019年11月AERONET数据选取的11个典型站位不同波段的AOD进行层次聚类分析,将所选站位最终划分为北京、沿海、太湖、西藏4个区域.然后基于图形分类法划分为6种气溶胶类型（清洁、沙漠粉尘、大陆、次大陆、城市工业和生物质燃烧型）.北京区域主要的气溶胶类型为城市工业型和大陆型,其中冬季主要为大陆型和清洁型、春季为大陆型和城市工业型、夏季和秋季主要为城市工业型气溶胶;沿海区域主要的气溶胶类型为大陆型气溶胶,其中冬、夏和秋季主要为大陆型和清洁型、春季主要为城市工业型和大陆型气溶胶;太湖区域城市工业型气溶胶占比最多,为41.96%,冬、春和夏季主要为城市工业型气溶胶,秋季主要为大陆型气溶胶;西藏区域清洁型气溶胶占比为80.53%,春夏秋冬四季以清洁型气溶胶为主.     

天津市冬季气溶胶吸湿因子的粒径分布特征

气溶胶粒径吸湿增长因子［g（RH）］是影响气溶胶消光和气溶胶辐射强迫的重要因素.利用吸湿性串联差分电迁移率分析仪（HTDMA）观测了天津市冬季不同污染状态下气溶胶粒子g_m（RH）的粒径分布.同时基于水溶性离子的粒径分布,利用κ-Köhler理论获取了较宽粒径范围内（60 nm~9.8 μm）的g_κ（RH）,为环境状态下气溶胶光学参数和直接辐射强迫的模拟提供基础.结果表明,清洁状态下大气光化学反应较为活跃,超细粒子（<100 nm）的g_m（RH）较高,g_m（RH=80%）在1.30以上.重度污染天,气溶胶中水溶性离子的质量分数随粒子粒径增大而增加,导致g_m（RH）随着粒子粒径增大而增大,300 nm粒子的g_m（RH=80%）和g_m（RH=85%）分别可达1.39和1.46.在较宽粒径范围（60 nm~9.8 μm）内,不同模态气溶胶的吸湿性强弱表现为积聚模态>爱根模态>粗模态.大气重污染过程中气溶胶粒径明显增大,积聚模态气溶胶中NO₃^-和SO₄^2-含量较清洁天明显增加,受此影响,污染状态下积聚模态气溶胶的吸湿性较清洁天明显增强,g_κ（RH）达到1.3~1.4,具有强吸湿性的气溶胶粒径范围也同时扩大,在0.18~3.1 μm粒径段均较高,对能见度恶化有重要的贡献.     

悬挂链曝气工艺应用于中小城镇污水治理

通过对悬挂链曝气工艺特点和应用情况的分析,总结了针对中小城镇污水处理厂的设计与建设经验。结合我国国情,提出悬挂链曝气工艺为中小城镇污水处理厂的建设提供了一个良好的选择。     

THE STATE OF LOUISIANA SUPERPORT AUTHORITY ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION PLAN – OIL AND OYSTERS1

ABSTRACT: The State of Louisiana created in 1972 the Deep Draft Harbor and Terminal Authority (commonly called Superport Authority) to plan, promote, and develop a deepwater (crude oil) terminal off the coast of Louisiana, and empowered it to establish an Authority development program to promote the economic and social welfare of its citizens. Simultaneously, the Authority was also charged with developing an environmental protection plan to preserve the environmental values of Louisiana's unique coastal marshland while permitting beneficial industrial and economic development. Consequently, in January 1974, an Environmental Protection Plan was promulgated, consisting of a series of regulations, design standards, and operating procedures aimed specifically at protecting the fragile estuarine environment of coastal Louisiana during the construction and ultimate operation of the superport. The paper describes the development of the Superport Authority's Environmental Protection Plan and the current status of the superport project.     

Deliquescence of Deposited Atmospheric Particles on Leaf Surfaces

A large fraction of deposited aerosol particles on leafsurfaces represents hygroscopic material in a high humidity environment, likely to become deliquescent within the water vapour transpired by the leaf. Microscopic observations on leaf surfaces of beech, kohlrabi and elder leaves grown in a particle-free environment and/or treated with defined particle load are presented. Spreading of deliquescent particles, formation of salt crusts, and encoating of and by waxes was observed. Deliquescence of NaNO₃ particles (deliquescence point 74% RH at 25 °C) was observed on and near the stomata at 35% relative humidity (RH) of the surrounding air, illustrating the influence of the boundary layer. Aerosols are difficult to identify on leaf surfaces, as similar patterns may be produced by deliquescent particles and processes like salt creep. These problems are especially important on leaves from the natural environment if only scanning electron microscopy (SEM) is used. These patterns could appear similar to the fused waxes described in forest decline research. Strong gradients are formed between deliquescent particles and the apoplastic solution within the leaf, promoting cuticular and stomatal uptake.     

新建铁路站区对城市环境噪声影响特征及预测研究

在铁路车站噪声影响中,车站影响区域产生的次生噪声相对于站中心的原生噪声,是城区噪声污染的主要因素。根据不同规模车站区对周边社会及人文景观的影响程度,划分出站区噪声监测范围。通过监测对比分析,发现站中心噪声与车站规模具有显著的正相关关系,而车站影响区噪声值在中小规模车站中,二者有一定的正相关关系,但当车站发展到一定大规模后,影响区内的噪声反而略有下降并趋于平稳。通过分析认为,大规模车站的建立有利于促进周边城市更合理地规划布局。根据车站布局与兴建对城市环境噪声影响的关系,以及站区噪声源变化特点,建立了不同车站规模站区的噪声值预测模型,其预测结果为新建铁路路站在城市中的规划布局,提供了实用的参考依据及有价值的建议。     

Heterogeneous Sulfate Formation on Dust Surface and Its Dependence on Mineralogy: Balloon-Borne Observations from Balloon-Borne Measurements in The Surface Atmosphere of Beijing, China

This study focuses on providing a direct insight into the process by which sulfate is formed on mineral dust surface in the actual atmosphere. Six sets of aerosol measurements were conducted in the outskirts of Beijing, China, in 2002–2003 using a tethered balloon. The mineralogy of individual dust particles, as well as its influence on the S (sulfur) loadings was investigated by SEM-EDX analysis of the directly collected particles. The mixed layer in the urban atmosphere was found to be quite low (500–600m), often appearing as a particle dense stagnant layer above the surface. It is suggested that mineral dust is a common and important fraction of the coarse particles in Beijing (35–68%), and that it is relatively enriched with Calcite (>28%). An exceptional amount of S was detected in the mineral particles, which can be explained neither by their original composition, nor by coagulation processes between the submicron sulfates and the dust. Heterogeneous uptake of gaseous SO₂, and its subsequent oxidation on dust was suggested as the main pathway that has actually taken place in the ambient environment. The mineral class found with the largest number of particles containing S was Calcite, followed by Dolomite, Clay, Amphibole etc., Feldspar, and Quartz. Among them, Calcite and Dolomite showed distinctly higher efficiency in collecting sulfate than the other types. A positive correlation was found with the number of S containing particles and the relative humidity. Calcite in particular, since almost all of its particles was found to contain S above 60% r.h. On the other hand, the active uptake of SO₂ by the carbonates was not suggested in the free troposphere downwind, and all the mineral classes exhibited similar S content. Relative humidity in the free troposphere was suggested as the key factor controlling the SO₂ uptake among the mineral types. In terms of sulfate loadings, the relationship was not linear, but rather increased exponentially as a function of relative humidity. The humidity-dependent uptake capacity of mineral types altogether showed an intermediate value of 0.07 gSO₄ ²⁻ g⁻¹ mineral at 30% r.h. and 0.40 gSO₄ ²⁻ g⁻¹ mineral at 80%, which is fairly consistent with laboratory experiments.     

ON THE MISMATCH BETWEEN DATA AND MODELS OF HYDROLOGIC AND WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Many difficulties exist in the matching of models with data. This paper identifies elements of this problem and discusses considerations involved in model evaluation. The well known multivariate linear regression model is used to illustrate the distinctions between accuracy and precision and between estimation and prediction (because the model is commonly misused.) No amount of additional data will improve the accuracy of a poor model. A high R², while indicative of a good matching between the observed data and model estimates, is a poor criterion for judging adequacy of the model to make good predictions of future events. Model evaluation also includes the problem of introducing secondary data and proxy variables into a model. Secondary data frequently enter, for example, the mass, energy and water budget equations because of difficulties in measuring the primary variables. Proxy variables arise because of a desire to collapse a vector of incomparable values, say, of water quality into a single number. Review of the above issues indicates that model evaluation is a multi-criterion problem, often imbedded in a larger framework where models are intended to meet multiple objectives. The mismatch of models and data has increasing legal and social consequences.