基于层次分析法的未确知测度理论泥石流危险性评价

将未确知测度理论与层次分析方法相结合用于评价泥石流危险性。根据泥石流危险性的影响因素和等级划分标准,选取泥石流规模、泥石流发生频率、流域面积、主沟长度、最大相对高差、流域切割密度、主沟床弯曲系数、泥砂补给长度比、24小时最大降雨量、人口密度等10个指标作为泥石流危险评价因子,利用未确知测度理论建立泥石流危险性评价指标的未确知测度函数,通过层次分析方法确定各评价指标的权重,依据置信度识别准则对泥石流危险性进行评价,并结合实例进行了对比分析。研究结果表明,基于层次分析方法的未确知测度理论的评价方法评价过程合理、置信度高、结果可靠,为泥石流危险性评价提供了一种新的方法     

自然灾害社会脆弱性评估研究——以上海市为例

基于投影寻踪聚类模型(PPC),结合基于实数编码的加速遗传算法(RAGA),对上海市进行了自然灾害社会脆弱性评估的尝试。结果表明:①灾害社会脆弱性最高的为崇明县,其次为宝山区和金山区;②灾害社会脆弱性最低的是黄埔区,其次是徐汇区和静安区;③总体而言,灾害脆弱性较低的地区集中于上海城市中心区,而城市边缘区的社会脆弱性一般较高。     

面向突发性水污染事件的三维可视化系统

针对突发性水污染事件的突发性、复杂性与潜在的次生衍生危害等特点,设计并开发了面向突发性水污染事件的三维可视化系统。对建设三维可视化系统的需求进行了分析,提出了系统的四层体系结构,基于三维地理信息系统World Wind组件,采用三维可视化环境建模、海量数据缓存机制以及基础地理信息集成等信息技术,开发了系统的基本应用与高级应用,将系统应用到2005年发生在松花江流域的突发性水污染事件中。实例表明:所设计的三维可视化系统具有集成性、可扩展性和较好三维表现力等特点,支持海量数据与复杂应用的集成与三维展示,为突发性水污染事件的空间模拟和决策支持提供支撑。     

CFRP加固高强混凝土梁锚固方式试验研究

高强混凝土梁受拉底面粘贴补强纤维布后,延性降低显著。为提高补强梁的综合性能,利用四点弯曲梁静载试验,在补强加固梁梁端及跨中实施不同的锚固方式,对比不同锚固组合下加固梁的强度和延性。研究表明:端部U锚能改善加固梁破坏模式,提高加固梁的延性和强度及补强纤维布的利用率。端部U锚联合跨中全包锚固能进一步提高加固梁的延性,显著提高补强纤维布的利用率,且能平衡变形性和承载力在安全储备中的比重;在补强纤维布断裂后,能有效限制补强纤维布的剥离和滑移,继续发挥补强作用,使加固梁延性和强度得以恢复;能对包裹区混凝土产生约束作用,提高混凝土的延性。因此端部U锚联合跨中全包锚固是合理且有充分安全储备的锚固方式。     

Projecting Climate Change Effects on Forest Net Primary Productivity in Subtropical Louisiana,USA

This study projected responses of forest net primary productivity (NPP) to three climate change scenarios at a resolution of 5 km × 5 km across the state of Louisiana, USA. In addition, we assessed uncertainties associated with the NPP projection at the grid and state levels. Climate data of the scenarios were derived from Community Climate System Model outputs. Changes in annual NPP between 2000 and 2050 were projected with the forest ecosystem model PnET-II. Results showed that forest productivity would increase under climate change scenarios A1B and A2, but with scenario B1, it would peak during 2011–2020 and then decline. The projected average NPP under B1 over the years from 2000 to 2050 was significantly different from those under A1B and A2. Forest NPP appeared to be primarily a function of temperature, not precipitation. Uncertainties of the NPP projection were due to large spatial resolution of the climate variables. Overall, this study suggested that in order to project effects of climate change on forest ecosystem at regional level, modeling uncertainties could be reduced by increasing the spatial resolution of the climate projections.     

Adsorption of As(III) on chitosan-Fe-crosslinked complex (Ch-Fe)

It was reported the adsorption of As(III) on the surface of the chitosan-Fe-crosslinked complex. Theoretical correlation of the experimental equilibrium adsorption data for As(III)/Ch-Fe system is best explained by the non-linearized form Langmuir-Freundlich isotherm model. At optimum conditions, pH 9.0, the maximum adsorption capacity, calculated using the Langmuir-Freundlich isotherm model was 13.4 mg g⁻¹. The adsorption kinetics of As(III) onto Ch-Fe are described by the pseudo-first-order kinetic equation. The results of the Mössbauer spectroscopy showed that there is no redox process on the surface of the adsorbent.     

Carry-over of dietary organochlorine pesticides, PCDD/Fs, PCBs, and brominated flame retardants to Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) fillets

Information on carry-over of contaminants from feed to animal food products is essential for appropriate human risk assessment of feed contaminants. The carry-over of potentially hazardous persistent organic pollutants (POPs) from feed to fillet was assessed in consumption sized Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Relative carry-over (defined as the fraction of a certain dietary POP retained in the fillet) was assessed in a controlled feeding trial, which provided fillet retention of dietary organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), dioxins (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and brominated flame retardants (BFRs). Highest retention was found for OCPs, BFRs and PCBs (31-58%), and the lowest retentions were observed for PCDD/Fs congeners (10-34%). National monitoring data on commercial fish feed and farmed Atlantic salmon on the Norwegian market were used to provide commercially relevant feed-to-fillet transfer factors (calculated as fillet POP level divided by feed POP level), which ranged from 0.4 to 0.5, which is a factor 5-10 times higher than reported for terrestrial meat products. For the OCP with one of the highest relative carry-over, toxaphene, uptake and elimination kinetics were established. Model simulations that are based on the uptake and elimination kinetics gave predicted levels that were in agreement with the measured values. Application of the model to the current EU upper limit for toxaphene in feed (50 μg kg⁻¹) gave maximum fillet levels of 22 μg kg⁻¹, which exceeds the estimated permissible level (21 μg kg⁻¹) for toxaphene in fish food samples in Norway.     

Development of a combined isotopic and mass-balance approach to determine dissolved organic carbon sources in eutrophic reservoirs

A combined mass-balance and stable isotope approach was set up to identify and quantify dissolved organic carbon (DOC) sources in a DOC-rich (9 mg L⁻¹) eutrophic reservoir located in Western France and used for drinking water supply (so-called Rophemel reservoir). The mass-balance approach consisted in measuring the flux of allochthonous DOC on a daily basis, and in comparing it with the effective (measured) DOC concentration of the reservoir. The isotopic approach consisted, for its part, in measuring the carbon isotope ratios (δ¹³C values) of both allochthonous and autochthonous DOC sources, and comparing these values with the δ¹³C values of the reservoir DOC. Results from both approaches were consistent pointing out for a DOC of 100% allochthonous origin. In particular, the δ¹³C values of the DOC recovered in the reservoir (−28.5 ± 0.2‰; n = 22) during the algal bloom season (May-September) showed no trace of an autochthonous contribution (δ¹³C in algae = −30.1 ± 0.3‰; n = 2) being indistinguishable from the δ¹³C values of allochthonous DOC from inflowing rivers (−28.6 ± 0.1‰; n = 8). These results demonstrate that eutrophication is not responsible for the high DOC concentrations observed in the Rophemel reservoir and that limiting eutrophication of this reservoir will not reduce the potential formation of disinfection by-products during water treatment. The methodology developed in this study based on a complementary isotopic and mass-balance approach provides a powerful tool, suitable to identify and quantify DOC sources in eutrophic, DOC-contaminated reservoirs.     

The effect of oxygen on chemical dechlorination of dieldrin using iron sulphides

The degradation of dieldrin by ferric sulphide (FeS₂) in aqueous solution was investigated when shielded against sunlight. An oxidative dechlorination process was observed under aerobic and anaerobic conditions; oxygen volume changed the degradation rate of dieldrin and the generation rate of reaction products. The dechlorination rate under microaerophilic conditions was fastest among the anaerobic to air oxygen concentrations. For this experiment, over 99% of the dieldrin was degraded, and 90% of the released chloride was detected after 30 d under 10 μmol oxygen. The major reaction products were different depending on the dose of oxygen. In the case of aerobic conditions, low molecular weight organic acids, such as formic acid, lactic acid, and oxalic acid, were generated as major reaction products. However, under anaerobic conditions, C₁₆H₂₂O₄ (dibutyl phthalate) and C₆H₁₃ClO (3-chloro-4-methyl-2-pentanol) were detected as reaction intermediates, and small amounts of succinic acid, malonic acid, and formic acid were also generated. These reactions proceed by FeS₂ interface reactions with H₂O under anaerobic condition, or O₂ under aerobic condition.