环境模型参数识别与不确定性分析

在对水文模型实例的参数不确定性分析基础上,分别采用传统灵敏度分析方法、HSY算法、线性回归等方法对模型参数特性进行了识别与比较研究.结果表明参数优化算法与传统灵敏度分析方法不能解释模型结构复杂性特征,采用不确定性分析方法对环境模型参数进行识别提供了深入分析与理解模型系统的有效途径.     

The ethics of genetic engineering and gene drives in conservation

The ethical issues associated with using genetic engineering and gene drives in conservation are typically described as consisting of risk assessment and management, public engagement and acceptance, opportunity costs, risk and benefit distributions, and oversight. These are important, but the ethical concerns extend beyond them because the use of genetic engineering has the potential to significantly alter the practices, concepts, and value commitments of conservation. I sought to elucidate the broader set of ethical issues connected with a potential genetic engineering turn in conservation and provide an approach to ethical analysis of novel conservation technologies. The primary rationales offered in support of using genetic engineering and gene drives in conservation are efficiency and necessity for achieving conservation goals. The instrumentalist ethical perspective associated with these rationales involves assessing novel technologies as a means to accomplish desired ends. For powerful emerging technologies the instrumentalist perspective needs to be complemented by a form-of-life perspective frequently applied in the philosophy of technology. The form-of-life perspective involves considering how novel technologies restructure the activities into which they are introduced. When the form-of-life perspective is applied to creative genetic engineering in conservation, it brings into focus a set of ethical issues, such as those associated with power, meaning, relationships, and values, that are not captured by the instrumentalist perspective. It also illuminates why the use of gene drives in conservation is so ethically and philosophically interesting.     

Incorporating putatively neutral and adaptive genomic data into marine conservation planning

The availability of genomic data for an increasing number of species makes it possible to incorporate evolutionary processes into conservation plans. Recent studies show how genetic data can inform spatial conservation prioritization (SCP), but they focus on metrics of diversity and distinctness derived primarily from neutral genetic data sets. Identifying adaptive genetic markers can provide important information regarding the capacity for populations to adapt to environmental change. Yet, the effect of including metrics based on adaptive genomic data into SCP in comparison to more widely used neutral genetic metrics has not been explored. We used existing genomic data on a commercially exploited species, the giant California sea cucumber (Parastichopus californicus), to perform SCP for the coastal region of British Columbia (BC), Canada. Using a RAD-seq data set for 717 P. californicus individuals across 24 sampling locations, we identified putatively adaptive (i.e., candidate) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) based on genotype–environment associations with seafloor temperature. We calculated various metrics for both neutral and candidate SNPs and compared SCP outcomes with independent metrics and combinations of metrics. Priority areas varied depending on whether neutral or candidate SNPs were used and on the specific metric used. For example, targeting sites with a high frequency of warm-temperature-associated alleles to support persistence under future warming prioritized areas in the southern coastal region. In contrast, targeting sites with high expected heterozygosity at candidate loci to support persistence under future environmental uncertainty prioritized areas in the north. When combining metrics, all scenarios generated intermediate solutions, protecting sites that span latitudinal and thermal gradients. Our results demonstrate that distinguishing between neutral and adaptive markers can affect conservation solutions and emphasize the importance of defining objectives when choosing among various genomic metrics for SCP.     

Using environmental and geographic data to optimize ex situ collections and preserve evolutionary potential

Maintenance of biodiversity through seed banks and botanical gardens, where the wealth of species’ genetic variation may be preserved ex situ, is a major goal of conservation. However, challenges can persist in optimizing ex situ collections if trade-offs exist among cost, effort, and conserving species evolutionary potential, particularly when genetic data are not available. We evaluated the genetic consequences of population preservation informed by geographic (isolation by distance [IBD]) and environmental (isolation by environment [IBE]) distance for ex situ collections for which population provenance is available. We used 19 genetic and genomic data sets from 15 plant species to assess the proportion of population genetic differentiation explained by geographic and environmental factors and to simulate ex situ collections prioritizing source populations based on pairwise geographic distance, environmental distance, or both. Specifically, we tested the impact prioritizing sampling based on these distances may have on the capture of neutral, functional, or putatively adaptive genetic diversity and differentiation. Individually, IBD and IBE explained limited population genetic differences across all 3 genetic marker classes (IBD, 10–16%; IBE, 1–5.5%). Together, they explained a substantial proportion of population genetic differences for functional (45%) and adaptive (71%) variation. Simulated ex situ collections revealed that inclusion of IBD, IBE, or both increased allelic diversity and genetic differentiation captured among populations, particularly for loci that may be important for adaptation. Thus, prioritizing population collections based on environmental and geographic distance data can optimize genetic variation captured ex situ. For the vast majority of plant species for which there is no genetic information, these data are invaluable to conservation because they can guide preservation of genetic variation needed to maintain evolutionary potential within collections.     

Effect of biogeographic history on population vulnerability in European amphibians

The genetic diversity of populations, which contributes greatly to their adaptive potential, is negatively affected by anthropogenic habitat fragmentation and destruction. However, continental‐scale losses of genetic diversity also resulted from the population expansions that followed the end of the last glaciation, an element that is rarely considered in a conservation context. We addressed this issue in a meta‐analysis in which we compared the spatial patterns of vulnerability of 18 widespread European amphibians in light of phylogeographic histories (glacial refugia and postglacial routes) and anthropogenic disturbances. Conservation statuses significantly worsened with distances from refugia, particularly in the context of industrial agriculture; human population density also had a negative effect. These findings suggest that features associated with the loss of genetic diversity in post‐glacial amphibian populations (such as enhanced fixation load or depressed adaptive potential) may increase their susceptibility to current threats (e.g., habitat fragmentation and pesticide use). We propose that the phylogeographic status of populations (i.e., refugial vs. post‐glacial) should be considered in conservation assessments for regional and national red lists.     

Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

Natural‐resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural‐resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait‐ and triage‐based approaches encompassing the oft‐overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco‐physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural‐resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real‐world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.     

Implications of genetics and current protected areas for conservation of 5 endangered primates in China

Most of China's 24–28 primate species are threatened with extinction. Habitat reduction and fragmentation are perhaps the greatest threats. We used published data from a conservation genetics study of 5 endangered primates in China (Rhinopithecus roxellana, R. bieti, R. brelichi, Trachypithecus francoisi, and T. leucocephalus); distribution data on these species; and the distribution, area, and location of protected areas to inform conservation strategies for these primates. All 5 species were separated into subpopulations with unique genetic components. Gene flow appeared to be strongly impeded by agricultural land, meadows used for grazing, highways, and humans dwellings. Most species declined severely or diverged concurrently as human population and crop land cover increased. Nature reserves were not evenly distributed across subpopulations with unique genetic backgrounds. Certain small subpopulations were severely fragmented and had higher extinction risk than others. Primate mobility is limited and their genetic structure is strong and susceptible to substantial loss of diversity due to local extinction. Thus, to maximize preservation of genetic diversity in all these primate species, our results suggest protection is required for all sub‐populations. Key priorities for their conservation include maintaining R. roxellana in Shennongjia national reserve, subpopulations S4 and S5 of R. bieti and of R. brelichi in Fanjingshan national reserve, subpopulation CGX of T. francoisi in central Guangxi Province, and all 3 T. leucocephalus sub‐populations in central Guangxi Province.     

公路隧道火灾发生位置与人群疏散通道仿真研究

利用EXODUS建立隧道的仿真场景,确定疏散人群仿真参数,并将出口工效OPS作为评价疏散效率的指标,分析不同火灾发生位置对疏散时间的影响。采用K-means算法分别对火灾发生位置和人群疏散通道位置进行聚类,并建立基于两者影响下的出口工效模型,通过对该模型求偏导,得出隧道火灾发生位置和人群疏散通道选择之间的关系。研究结果表明:火灾发生位置越接近人行横通道,疏散时间波动越大,人行横通道和隧道入口的疏散时间随人群疏散区域分界线变化,当火灾发生距人行横通道20~110 m时,变化明显,当距140~350 m时,变化平稳;出口工效OPS总体呈现不稳定的阶梯状变化趋势;火灾发生位置和人群疏散通道的最优位置呈线性递减关系。研究结果可应用于隧道应急指挥中心管理人员制定有效疏散路径和采取诱导分流人群措施。     

氟化物对植物生理生化的影响

综述了氟化物对植物的光合作用、时吸作用、膜生理和有机物的代谢等生理过程，及异常衰老和遗传变异的影响，并提出了今后的研究方向。     

大豆种质资源对斜纹夜蛾(PRODENIA LITURA)抗性的鉴定

在网室人工均匀接虫条件下 ,以叶面积损失百分率为指标 ,分别于 1997年和 1998年鉴定了从 6 72 4份大豆资源中筛选的 46份抗感材料及 5份江淮与南方大豆推广良种共 5 1份对斜纹夜蛾的抗性差异表现 .结果表明 ,品种间、观测日期间、年份间抗虫性有极显著差异 ;品种与观测日期间互作显著 ;品种与年份之间互作极显著 ;年份之间抗虫性表现极显著相关 .从供试资源中筛选出一批年份间表现相对一致的高抗种质 ,其抗性优于国际常用的抗源PI2 2 76 87、PI17145 1、PI2 2 935 8.表 3参 10