三峡库区雷暴气候变化特征分析

利用长江三峡库区及其周边地区38个气象站1961～2001年的逐日雷暴资料,统计、分析了三峡库区雷暴日数及其初、终日的时空分布特征。结果表明：41年来,长江三峡库区年平均雷暴日数较多,一般为34～45 d,其中库区西北部和中南部为多雷区;年际变化大,最多年比最少年一般偏多27～61 d;整个库区年雷暴日数的变化均存在不同程度的减少趋势,气候倾向率为 1～7 d/10 a;雷暴出现的季节变化很明显,4～8月为多发时段;雷暴初日库区东部早于西部,终日东西段差别不大;雷暴持续期普遍在195～239 d之间,其中西部持续时间短,东部长;大部地区雷暴初日有推后的变化趋势,推迟速率约2～6 d/10 a;终日有提前的变化趋势,且提前速率为2～4 d/10 a;库区大部雷暴期呈缩短的变化趋势,缩短速率为2～8 d/10 a。     

天津市PM2.5中二次硝酸盐形成及防控

二次硝酸盐是PM_2.5中的重要二次无机离子组分,为了解PM_2.5中二次硝酸盐的形成及防控途径,基于天津市城区点位2018~2019年高时间分辨率的PM_2.5在线监测数据,对气溶胶颗粒物的离子组分、pH值、NH₃-NH₄⁺和HNO₃-NO₃^-浓度分布以及硝酸铵形成的敏感性进行了研究.结果表明,天津PM_2.5平均浓度为58μg·m^-3,PM_2.5中主要离子组分为NO₃^-、NH₄⁺、SO₄^2-、Cl^-和K⁺,在PM_2.5中的占比分别为18.4%、11.6%、10.3%、3.3%和2.6%,PM_2.5及主要组分浓度均在采暖季高、非采暖季低.气溶胶颗粒物整体呈现弱酸性,平均pH值为5.21,季节分布为春冬季节高、夏秋季节低,日变化趋势表现为早间（00：00~08：00）低,其他时间略高.NH₃和HNO₃的平均浓度水平分别为16.7μg·m^-3和1.2μg·m^-3,NH₃浓度在每年的4~9月相对较高,10月~次年2月浓度相对较低;HNO₃浓度水平月际变化不明显.除夏季外,其他季节NH₃浓度均为早晚较高,其他时段较低;HNO₃浓度整体呈现白天相对略高,晚上相对略低的特点.不同pH值下NH₃与NH₄⁺、HNO₃与NO₃^-的浓度分布呈现明显的非线性关系,早晚NH₄⁺与NO₃^-的浓度均较高,pH值与NH₃和NH₄⁺以及HNO₃与NO₃^-的浓度分布均为非线性.敏感性图表明,2018~2019年天津市硝酸铵的形成主要处于HNO₃敏感区域,部分处于NH₃&HNO₃敏感区域.从季节分布上看,春季、秋季和冬季硝酸铵的形成主要处于HNO₃敏感区域,夏季硝酸铵的形成主要处于HNO₃和NH₃&HNO₃敏感区域.为有效减少天津市PM_2.5中二次硝酸盐的形成,春季、秋季和冬季主要开展HNO₃前体物（NO_x）的控制,夏季主要开展HNO₃前体物（NO_x）和NH₃的协同控制.     

Protection of Mammal Diversity in Central America

Abstract:  Central America is exceptionally rich in biodiversity, but varies widely in the attention its countries devote to conservation. Protected areas, widely considered the cornerstone of conservation, were not always created with the intent of conserving that biodiversity. We assessed how well the protected-area system of Central America includes the region's mammal diversity. This first required a refinement of existing range maps to reduce their extensive errors of commission (i.e., predicted presences in places where species do not occur). For this refinement, we used the ecological limits of each species to identify and remove unsuitable areas from the range. We then compared these maps with the locations of protected areas to measure the habitat protected for each of the region's 250 endemic mammals. The species most vulnerable to extinction—those with small ranges—were largely outside protected areas. Nevertheless, the most strictly protected areas tended toward areas with many small-ranged species. To improve the protection coverage of mammal diversity in the region, we identified a set of priority sites that would best complement the existing protected areas. Protecting these new sites would require a relatively small increase in the total area protected, but could greatly enhance mammal conservation.     

减灾民用产品开发的可行性研究——以地震安全图动态查询公共系统为例

以地震安全图实时制作与动态查询公共系统开发的必要性与可行性为例,阐述了社会对“自然灾害与安全信息民用产品”的需求,以及它对提高减灾实效、推动灾害与信息科学发展水平的作用。同时介绍了海口市地震安全图实时制作与动态查询公共系统的功能、制作方法和社会用户群体的分析。     

我国东部七省生态系统对酸沉降的相对敏感性

讨论了影响亚热带生态系统对酸沉降敏感性的生态因子，提出了敏感性等级划分的指标体系，根据大量资料编制了我国东部７省１市生态系统对酸沉降相对敏感性分区图。结果表明，在研究区域内生态系统的敏感性有相当大的差别，极敏感区和敏感区面积占全区总面积的１／３以上，主要分布在福建、浙江、江西３省。     

The sustainable development oxymoron: quantifying and modelling the incompatibility of sustainable development goals

ABSTRACT

In 2015, the UN adopted a new set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to eradicate poverty, establish socioeconomic inclusion and protect the environment. Critical voices such as the International Council for Science (ICSU), however, have expressed concerns about the potential incompatibility of the SDGs, specifically the incompatibility of socio-economic development and environmental sustainability. In this paper, we test, quantify and model the alleged inconsistency of SDGs. Our analyses show which SDGs are consistent and which are conflicting. We measure the extent of inconsistency and conclude that the SDG agenda will fail as a whole if we continue with business as usual. We further explore the nature of the inconsistencies using dynamical systems models, which reveal that the focus on economic growth and consumption as a means for development underlies the inconsistency. Our models also show that there are factors which can contribute to development (health programmes, government investment) on the one hand and ecological sustainability (renewable energy) on the other, without triggering the conflict between incompatible SDGs.     

环境质量评价中若干评价方法的比较

探讨了目前用于环境质量评价的若干方法－－模糊综合评判法,灰色聚类法,灰关联分析方法及改进形式,物元分析方法及改进形式的共点与异点,指出要推求一种适合环境质量评价实际的方法尚有大量工作要做。     

辽宁省煤矿瓦斯赋存构造控制规律与瓦斯分带划分

瓦斯赋存规律认识不清,是导致煤矿瓦斯突出灾害频发的根本原因。应用瓦斯赋存地质构造逐级控制理论,结合辽宁省煤矿瓦斯地质图编制资料,分析了全省瓦斯赋存构造控制规律,进行了瓦斯分带划分。研究结果表明:印支运动(主幕),在形成一系列EW向、NE向和NW向断裂褶皱带过程中,煤体破坏,形成构造煤。燕山运动,形成了一系列NNE向、NE向的褶皱和逆冲推覆构造,与EW向构造相叠加,构造应力集中,有利于瓦斯突出;同时,岩浆侵入煤系地层使煤变质程度增高,生烃能力增强。喜马拉雅运动时期,挤压作用逐步被拉张取代,拉张裂隙作用有利于瓦斯部分释放。将辽宁省煤矿瓦斯赋存分布划分4个高突瓦斯带,即阜新-铁岭高突瓦斯带、抚顺-沈北高突瓦斯带、北票-南票高突瓦斯带和红阳-本溪高突瓦斯带。     

震后城市地震动场快速评估系统研究

震后灾情的快速评估是政府救灾的主要决策依据,而烈度的快速评估是其基础。本文在ArcGIS二次开发的基础上提出了一套城市震后烈度快速评估系统,并以福州市为例介绍了该系统的功能。首先,根据具有跨平台运行能力的实时数据接收程序,将福州强震台网所记录到的地震数据文件导入本系统,再利用福州地区各类场地的地震动放大因子β,经过本系统自行编制的计算程序的快速处理,可以在1～2分钟的时间内得到福州地区的地震烈度分布图及加速度等值线分布图;另外,如果强震台没有得到强震记录,依靠中国地震台网中心发布的地震震源参数信息,同样可以进行烈度快速评估。     

A multicriteria approach for mapping risks of agricultural pollution for water resources: The Venice Lagoon watershed case study

A multicriteria analysis system was developed for producing risk maps of agricultural pollution due to alternative cultivation systems in the Watershed of the Lagoon of Venice (WLV) in Italy. Results of a field-scale simulation model for agricultural diffuse pollution were used to compile a matrix of environmental impacts, in terms of pollution indices. The most widespread combinations of typical environments (as defined by combinations of soil and climate variables) and alternative land uses (types of crops and cultivation systems) were described in the impact matrix. Land use in terms of crop distribution was based on census data. Two alternative cultivation systems were defined on the basis of the recent changes to the European Common Agricultural Policy: ordinary and eco-compatible. The effects of alternative scenarios were evaluated in terms of pollution risks for water resources. The evaluation procedure was built into the framework of a geographical information system to take into account the spatial features of pollution phenomena, vulnerability of the land and risk for water resources. The results demonstrated the great potential of eco-compatible practices for reducing the risks for surface and groundwater (−15 and −50%, respectively).