The effects of scale and spatial heterogeneities on diffusion in volcanic breccias and basalts: Amchitka Island, Alaska

Knowledge of the factors that influence the diffusion of contaminants, such as the diffusivity and the connected porosity, is crucial to modeling the long-term fate and transport of contaminants in subsurface systems with small or negligible advective flow, such as in fractured crystalline rock. Fractured rock is naturally heterogeneous, and hence, understanding the diffusivity of a molecule through this material (or the formation factor of the medium) becomes a complex problem, with critical concerns about the scale of laboratory measurements and about the spatial variability of these measurements relative to the scale needed for fate and transport modeling. This study employed both electrical and tracer-based laboratory methods to investigate the effects of scale and pore system connectivity on the diffusivity for volcanic matrix rock derived from the study site, a former underground nuclear test site at Amchitka Island, Alaska. The results of these investigations indicate a relatively well-connected pore system with scale effects generally limited to approximately 6 cm lengths and well-correlated to observed heterogeneous features. An important conclusion resulting from this study, however, is that there is a potential for the estimated diffusivity to be misrepresented by an order of magnitude if multiple samples or longer sample lengths are not used. Given the relatively large number of measurements resulting from these investigations, an analysis of the probability density function (PDF) of the diffusivity was possible. The PDF of the diffusivity was shown to generally follow a normal distribution for individual geologic layers. However, when all of the geologic layers are considered together, the distribution of the subsurface as a whole was shown to follow a lognormal distribution due to the order of magnitude differences amongst the layers. An understanding of these distributions is essential for future stochastic modeling efforts.     

环境保护在学习实践科学发展观活动中的地位与作用——从环境哲学角度看学习实践科学发展观活动

环境保护是科学发展观的题中之意,科学发展观关于环境保护的论述,是党的环境保护理论的精髓。学习实践科学发展观活动,是一个哲学内涵非常丰富的课题,是十分难得的研究环境哲学的大好机遇。试点经验显示了环境保护在学习实践科学发展观活动中的重要作用。他们一方面在科学发展中通过转变发展方式,调整经济结构,解决环境难题;一方面坚持环境保护与经济发展并重,在保护环境中求发展,努力实现环境与经济“双赢”。其共性是,注重治本、注重生态、注重政策。深入学习实践科学发展观,关键在实践,要深入一线,深入调研,融人群众的实践,总结来自一线的新鲜经验。要适应新形势,了解新情况,解决新问题。在学习实践科学发展观活动中,不断提高落实科学发展观,在科学发展中,提高解决环境问题的能力,实现环境与发展、环境与经济的“双赢”。     

Landscape consequences of aggregation rules for functional equivalence in compensatory mitigation programs

Mitigation and offset programs designed to compensate for ecosystem function losses due to development must balance losses from affected ecosystems with gains in restored ecosystems. Aggregation rules applied to ecosystem functions to assess site equivalence are based on implicit assumptions about the substitutability of functions among sites and can profoundly influence the distribution of restored ecosystem functions on the landscape. We investigated the consequences of rules applied to the aggregation of ecosystem functions for wetland offsets in the Beaverhill watershed in Alberta, Canada. We considered the fate of 3 ecosystem functions: hydrology, water purification, and biodiversity. We set up an affect‐and‐offset algorithm to simulate the effect of aggregation rules on ecosystem function for wetland offsets. Cobenefits and trade‐offs among functions and the constraints posed by the quantity and quality of restorable sites resulted in a redistribution of functions between affected and offset wetlands. Hydrology and water purification functions were positively correlated with one another and negatively correlated with biodiversity function. Weighted‐average rules did not replace functions in proportion to their weights. Rules prioritizing biodiversity function led to more monofunctional wetlands and landscapes. The minimum rule, for which the wetland score was equal to the worst performing function, promoted multifunctional wetlands and landscapes. The maximum rule, for which the wetland score was equal to the best performing function, promoted monofunctional wetlands and multifunctional landscapes. Because of implicit trade‐offs among ecosystem functions, no‐net‐loss objectives for multiple functions should be constructed within a landscape context. Based on our results, we suggest criteria for the design of aggregation rules for no net loss of ecosystem functions within a landscape context include the concepts of substitutability, cobenefits and trade‐offs, landscape constraints, heterogeneity, and the precautionary principle.     

大气中黑碳的健康效应及机制研究进展

虽然人类社会不断进步发展,但大量工业和自然排放也导致了严重的空气污染。大气颗粒物是大气污染物的主要成分之一,黑碳是其中的重要组成成分,被国际癌症研究机构(IARC)归类为2B类致癌物。黑碳可以吸附其他致癌物质,会对环境和人体健康产生不利影响,因此黑碳暴露对人类的危害得到越来越多的重视。空气中黑碳的水平与心血管、呼吸和神经系统疾病的发生都有关系;黑碳主要通过引起氧化应激和炎症反应,诱发基因突变等一系列损伤。虽然现今对于黑碳健康效应的研究已取得了一些进展,但研究多数处于起步阶段,且仅针对黑碳本身进行单独研究,未来还需要加强开展对黑碳和其他污染物联合毒性效应及机制的研究。本综述主要针对近年来已开展的研究进行了总结归纳。     

Causasilty among wildfire,ENSO, timber harvest,and urban sprawl: The vector autoregression approach

This article demonstrates the applicability of vector autoregression (VAR) modeling in probing the causality relationships among wildfire, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), timber harvest, and urban sprawl in the U.S. The VAR approach allows for the multi-directional, multi-faceted interactions among the variables concerned and enables us to portray the temporal impacts of ENSO, the volume of timber harvested, and urban sprawl on wildfire. The empirical analysis, though intended mainly for illustration, reveals that an individual factor may not affect wildfire activity (number of fires and area burned) when acting alone, but can significantly influence fire activity when coupled with other factors, and that wildfire activity has feedback effects on other variables. The impact of a change in ENSO, the volume of timber harvested, and urban population density on wildfire activity could last two decades with the most noticeable impact occurring in the initial 5–10 years. Though ENSO, timber harvest, and urban sprawl all Granger-cause wildfire activity, the impulse response functions show that wildfire activity is more responsive to urban population density than to the volume of timber harvested or ENSO. Thus, controlling urban sprawl represents another option for wildfire mitigation; and integrative wildfire management is essential.     

Parameterizing,evaluating and comparing metapopulation models with data from individual-based simulations

Due to the lack of sufficient data and appropriate ecological information parameterizing predictive population dynamical models usually is a difficult task. The approach proposed in this study is meant to overcome this problem by using detailed individual-based simulations to generate artificial data. With short-term data samples, the models to be investigated can be parameterized and their predictions be compared. The flexibility of individual-based simulations as experimental tools also facilitates the evaluation and comparison of different (aggregated) model types. The presented approach is a step towards unifying models of different complexity. As an example we applied it to two metapopulation models of insect species in a highly fragmented landscape: the well-known incidence function model with a patch-based representation of space and a grid-based analogue. The models are tested with respect to their data requirement and recommendations for a better data sampling are derived.     

南京市典型森林群落枯枝落叶层的生态功能研究

对南京市5种典型森林群落枯枝落叶层现存量、营养元素氮磷贮存量、持水量以及吸纳重金属等生态功能的研究结果表明,5种典型森林群落枯枝落叶层现存量、对氮的贮存能力以及最大拦蓄量均以麻栎-栓皮栎群落最大;对磷和5种重金属的贮存量以银杏群落最大,麻栎-栓皮栎群落次之;枫香-桂花和三角枫群落的各项生态功能相对较弱。建议在南京市的城市森林规划和建设中,应保护好现存的地带性植物群落———以麻栎-栓皮栎为优势种的落叶阔叶林群落或营建类地带性植物群落,维护林地枯枝落叶层的完整性,将有助于改善城市生态环境。     

长期不同施肥处理对红壤水稻土酶活性及微生物群落功能多样性的影响

江西红壤生态试验站长期定位试验中不同施肥处理红壤水稻土酶活性及微生物群落功能多样性的研究结果表明,不同施肥条件下土壤酶活性及微生物群落功能多样性差异较大,土壤脲酶和脱氢酶活性可以作为土壤肥力的指标。经过20 a施肥管理及水稻种植,土壤酶活性及生物量有很大提高;但是B IOLOGTM生态测试板测定结果显示,施肥使微生物生物群落物种丰富度有所减少,施P土壤酶活性、微生物群落功能多样性均大于未施P土壤,采用秸秆还田处理的群落物种均一性高于未采用秸秆还田处理。     

Short-term wind speed forecasting based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm

ABSTRACT

Wind speed forecasting plays an important role in power grid dispatching management. This article proposes a short-term wind speed forecasting method based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical modal decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm. First, the initial wind speed data set is decomposed into several ensemble empirical mode functions by EEMD, then feature extraction of each sub-modal IMF is performed using fast Fourier transform to solve the cycle of each sub-modal IMF. Next, combining the high-performance parameter optimization ability of the improved harmony search algorithm, two optimal parameters of random forest model, number of decision trees, and number of split features are determined. Finally, the random forest model is used to forecast the processing results of each submodal IMF. The proposed model is applied to the simulation analysis of historical wind data of Chaoyang District, Liaoning Province from April 27, 2015 to May 22, 2015. To illustrate the suitability and superiority of the EEMD-RF-IHS model, three types of models are used for comparison: single models including ANN, SVM, RF; EMD combination models including EMD-ANN, EMD-SVM, EMD-RF; EEMD combination models including EEMD-ANN, EEMD-SVM, EEMD-RF. The analysis results of evaluation indicators show that the proposed model can effectively forecast short-term wind data with high stability and precision, providing a reference for forecasting application in other industry fields.     

兰州市空气污染对儿童肺功能影响的前瞻性研究

从不同的角度阐述了室内外空气污染对儿童肺功能 ,特别是小气道功能的影响及其影响程度的前瞻性研究结果。并通过多因素、多指标的综合分析 ,揭示了一些影响儿童肺功能的主要因素。指出了从保护人体健康的角度来说 ,好的环境空气质量和良好的室内空气质量同样重要