A hybrid decision-making approach based on FCM and MOORA for occupational health and safety risk analysis

IntroductionWith the development of industries and increased diversity of their associated hazards, the importance of identifying these hazards and controlling the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) risks has also dramatically augmented. Currently, there is a serious need for a risk management system to identify and prioritize risks with the aim of providing corrective/preventive measures to minimize the negative consequences of OHS risks. In fact, this system can help the protection of employees’ health and reduction of organizational costs. Method: The present study proposes a hybrid decision-making approach based on the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), and Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA) for assessing and prioritizing OHS risks. After identifying the risks and determining the values of the risk assessment criteria via the FMEA technique, the attempt is made to determine the weights of criteria based on their causal relationships through FCM and the hybrid learning algorithm. Then, the risk prioritization is carried out using the MOORA method based on the decision matrix (the output of the FMEA) and the weights of the criteria (the output of the FCM). Results: The results from the implementation of the proposed approach in a manufacturing company reveal that the score at issue can overcome some of the drawbacks of the traditional Risk Priority Number (RPN) in the conventional FMEA, including lack of assignment the different relative importance to the assessment criteria, inability to take into account other important management criteria, lack of consideration of causal relationships among criteria, and high dependence of the prioritization on the experts’ opinions, which finally provides a full and distinct risk prioritization.     

The data not collected on community forestry

Conservation and development practitioners increasingly promote community forestry as a way to conserve ecosystem services, consolidate resource rights, and reduce poverty. However, outcomes of community forestry have been mixed; many initiatives failed to achieve intended objectives. There is a rich literature on institutional arrangements of community forestry, but there has been little effort to examine the role of socioeconomic, market, and biophysical factors in shaping both land‐cover change dynamics and individual and collective livelihood outcomes. We systematically reviewed the peer‐reviewed literature on community forestry to examine and quantify existing knowledge gaps in the community‐forestry literature relative to these factors. In examining 697 cases of community forest management (CFM), extracted from 267 peer‐reviewed publications, we found 3 key trends that limit understanding of community forestry. First, we found substantial data gaps linking population dynamics, market forces, and biophysical characteristics to both environmental and livelihood outcomes. Second, most studies focused on environmental outcomes, and the majority of studies that assessed socioeconomic outcomes relied on qualitative data, making comparisons across cases difficult. Finally, there was a heavy bias toward studies on South Asian forests, indicating that the literature on community forestry may not be representative of decentralization policies and CFM globally.     

北京市郊区夏季臭氧重污染特征及生成效率

为研究北京郊区夏季O₃(臭氧)重污染过程特征及O₃生成的光化学敏感性,基于2016年夏季在北京郊区开展的针对O₃及其相关污染物的强化观测试验(7月23日—8月31日,共计40 d),分析了观测期间O₃浓度[以φ(O₃)计]变化特征、O₃重污染过程主控因素与O₃敏感性化学特征.结果表明:观测期间φ(O₃)超标时有发生,最大小时φ(O₃)为151.1×10-9,其中有15 d的φ(O₃)最大8 h滑动平均值(O₃-max-8h)超过了GB 3095—2012《环境空气质量标准》二级标准限值,占观测天数的37.5%;不同O₃重污染过程成因有所不同,城市烟羽传输的污染物对郊区O₃重污染过程影响显著(观测期间臭氧重污染过程:过程1,7月27—29日;过程3,8月9—11日;过程4,8月16日;过程5,8月21—24日),区域光化学污染对郊区O₃重污染过程也有贡献(观测期间O₃重污染过程2:8月4—6日);结合后向气流轨迹进一步辅助说明了不同重污染过程中O₃的来源不同.研究还发现,观测区域存在反“周末效应”现象,说明观测区域周末受人为影响较为明显;基于观测数据计算的OPE(O₃生成效率)分析了O₃光化学敏感性表明,在有OPE值的22 d内NO_x控制区和VOCs控制区出现的概率(41%)相等,即观测区域O₃对NO_x和VOCs均敏感;此外还发现,在O₃重污染过程中光化学敏感性会随其反应进程发生改变,由NO_x控制区逐渐转变为VOCs控制区.      

Sensitivity of Precipitation Statistics to Urban Growth in a Subtropical Coastal Megacity Cluster

This short paper presents an investigation on how human activities may or may not affect precipitation based on numerical simulations of precipitation in a benchmark case with modified lower boundary conditions, representing different stages of urban development in the model. The results indicate that certain degrees of urbanization affect the likelihood of heavy precipitation significantly, while less urbanized or smaller cities are much less prone to these effects. Such a result can be explained based on our previous work where the sensitivity of precipitation statistics to surface anthropogenic heat sources lies in the generation of buoyancy and turbulence in the planetary boundary layer and dissipation through triggering of convection. Thus only mega cities of sufficient size, and hence human-activity-related anthropogenic heat emission, can expect to experience such effects. In other words, as cities grow, their effects upon precipitation appear to grow as well.     

地表参数对面源大气预测结果的影响性分析研究

为了研究地表参数取值对AERMOD中面源模拟预测浓度值的影响,文章通过改变粗糙度、反照率和波文比的取值来进行不同地表参数与预测结果的相关性分析,同时采用正交试验法来研究不同地表参数对预测结果的敏感性.相关性分析表明,不同地表参数和预测结果有着很高的相关性.敏感性分析表明,反照率数值变化对小时最大落地浓度的敏感性最大,粗糙度数值变化对日均和年均最大落地浓度的敏感性最大.通过研究可以看出在面源大气预测过程中合理选择地表参数值是准确预测的前提.     

低中放处置场环境评价参数灵敏度分析

选取90Sr、239Pu和14C为代表核素,采用单参数变分法对某低中水平放射性固体废物处置场环境影响评价中与核素迁移相关的主要评价参数开展了参数灵敏度分析.分析结果表明:对于低中放处置场而言,环境影响评价模式中主要评价参数的选择对最终评价结果的影响很大,因此在环境影响评价中开展不确定度及敏感度分析是必要的.     

崇明东滩湿地干湿交替过程脲酶活性变化初探

以典型滨海湿地——崇明东滩为原型区域,采集湿地沉积物及海水样品,通过土柱模拟方法(30、35、40℃),研究了半月潮(15d左右为周期的"大潮")与日潮(一个太阴日内出现的涨潮和落潮)水分生态过程沉积物脲酶(Urease)活性及溶解性有机氮(DON)与铵态氮(NH+4-N)含量等的变化,计算了Urease活性的表观温度敏感性系数(Q’10),旨为揭示典型滨海湿地潮汐驱动下周期性干湿交替过程沉积物Urease活性的变化规律.半月潮过程,干燥沉积物(1%~3%)淹水后,Urease活性迅速增加.随着沉积物变干,酶活性逐渐下降.Urease活性对沉积物水分变化的敏感性随干湿交替频次的增加而下降.日潮过程对Urease活性的影响较小.30、35、40℃下,酶活性分别为(0.067±0.018)、(0.143±0.027)、(0.028±0.011)g·(10 g·h)-1.相比较而言,半月潮过程Urease活性明显低于日潮过程.这表明,干湿交替显著降低了沉积物Urease活性(30、35℃).半月潮过程中,沉积物Urease活性Q’10的最高值出现在35~40℃,而日潮过程中出现在30~35℃.因此,干湿交替可能增高了Urease活性Q’10的温度响应范围.此外,半月潮过程中,Urease活性主导着沉积物NH+4-N含量的变化(30、35℃),但其与DON含量之间并无显著相关性.日潮过程Urease活性与NH+4-N和DON含量之间均不显著相关.     

ASM1耦合曝气模型对污水处理厂的模拟研究

为了更好地模拟污水处理厂实际的曝气方式及溶解氧浓度,采用更加精确的曝气模型对某污水处理厂进行了模拟研究.该模型考虑了污泥浓度、堵塞及温度等因素对氧传质的影响,并将该曝气模型与ASM1相耦合.首先,通过灵敏度分析确定了对该污水处理厂出水指标影响较大的参数,分别为异养菌产率系数YH、异养菌最大比增长速率μH、自养菌最大比增长速率μA及自养菌氧利用半饱和系数KOA.然后,测定部分灵敏度较高的参数并使用测量结果对模型进行校正,校正结果使用希尔系数表征.最后,使用另一批数据对校正参数进行验证.模拟的COD、氨氮、总氮和好氧池末端溶解氧的希尔不等系数分别是0.13、0.23、0.20和0.15,而通过控制溶解氧浓度或理论氧转移效率模型模拟则出现氨氮、溶解氧、总氮及COD的希尔不等系数不同程度上升的结果.校验后的ASM1/曝气耦合模型参数可以很好地应用于污水处理厂的模拟当中,对于优化污水厂曝气控制具有重要意义.     

原子吸收火焰法次灵敏线测定污水和电镀污泥中高含量的锌

对采用原子吸收火焰法次灵敏线测定污水和电镀污泥中高含量的锌进行了研究。试验结果表明：在锌浓度50．0～600．0mg/L之间,溶液锌含量与吸光度呈线性关系。线性回归方程为y＝0．000661x-0．0007,相关系数γ＝0．9998。方法检出限为25．0mg/L,相对标准误差（RSD）＜2．96％,加标回收率为92．5％～105％,与标准法的相对误差＜2．76％。     

基于GIS的断层构造对滑坡灾害发育控制作用分析——以雅安市雨城区为例

断层是滑坡发育的影响因素之一。选择雅安市雨城区和区域内232处滑坡作为研究的基础资料,通过地理信息系统空间分析技术及作者提出的滑坡影响因子贡献率的方法,得到了研究区内断层100m和200m缓冲区对滑坡的贡献率,定量研究了断层对研究区域滑坡发育的关系。研究结果表明,研究区域断层对滑坡敏感性不大,100m断层缓冲区较200m断层缓冲区贡献率值较大,为下一步研究区域滑坡危险度区划奠定了基础,同时为区域防灾提供了科学依据。