深埋水平岩层隧道开挖稳定性分析及控制*

针对深埋高地应力水平岩层掌子面开挖稳定性及支护结构失效问题,以大峡谷隧道为工程背景,通过现场测试、室内试验、数值模拟等方法,探究深埋高地应力水平岩层失稳机理及控制措施。研究结果表明:坚硬岩体被节理面切割后,在高地应力作用下容易发生挤压破碎,破碎岩体遇水发生软化,导致掌子面发生大范围塌方,初支和超前支护失效;隧道开挖后岩层发生不均匀沉降,浅部岩层最先发生弯折破坏,层内块体错动滑移,继而向上方岩层发展,并伴随层间分离和层内裂隙发育,最终形成宏观破裂面;提出的台阶法、2 m开挖进尺、砼喷层、双层小导管、提高初支强度的整体优化控制措施,可有效提高现场支护效果。     

Dynamic risk assessment for underground gas storage facilities based on Bayesian network

Loss of the underground gas storage process can have significant effects, and risk analysis is critical for maintaining the integrity of the underground gas storage process and reducing potential accidents. This paper focuses on the dynamic risk assessment method for the underground gas storage process. First, the underground gas storage process data is combined to create a database, and the fault tree of the underground gas storage facility is built by identifying the risk factors of the underground gas storage facility and mapping them into a Bayesian network. To eliminate the subjectivity in the process of determining the failure probability level of basic events, fuzzy numbers are introduced to determine the prior probability of the Bayesian network. Then, causal and diagnostic reasoning is performed on the Bayesian network to determine the failure level of the underground gas storage facilities. Based on the rate of change of prior and posterior probabilities, sensitivity and impact analysis are combined to determine the significant risk factors and possible failure paths. In addition, the time factor is introduced to build a dynamic Bayesian network to perform dynamic assessment and analysis of underground gas storage facilities. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment method is applied to underground gas storage facilities in depleted oil and gas reservoirs. A dynamic risk evaluation model for underground gas storage facilities is built to simulate and validate the dynamic risk evaluation method based on the Bayesian network. The results show that the proposed method has practical value for improving underground gas storage process safety.     

CFD-based assessment and visualization of the failure consequences of LPG tankers

This paper presents a simulation analysis of the explosions following an LPG leak and visualizes the consequences of the accident to reduce the consequences of the LPG leak explosion. Firstly, this paper proposes a CFD numerical simulation-based method for visualizing the consequences of LPG tanker failure. The method combines satellite maps and CFD numerical simulation data to visualize the consequences of LPG leaks and explosions, taking into account the influence of obstacles on the danger range of leaks and explosions; Secondly, this paper applies the method to a liquefied petroleum gas accident that occurred in the Wenling section of the Shenhai Expressway and performs CFD numerical simulation on the accident process and visualizes the consequences of the accident. Therefore, this method can provide a theoretical reference for the prior prevention of LPG accidents and the analysis of the consequences of accidents, as well as certain practical guidance instructive.     

Scenario derivation and consequence evaluation of dust explosion accident based on dynamic Bayesian network

In order to clarify the correlation between the evolution path of dust explosion accidents and emergency decision-making, and to accurately predict the disaster damage levels of various disaster bearing bodies. This paper extracts 56 key scenario elements from four aspects, namely state, answer, goal and environment, based on the analysis of typical dust explosion accident cases. At the same time, a general scenario evolution path of dust explosion accident is constructed. Using fuzzy number set theory and dynamic Bayes joint probability model, the accurate solution of scenario state probability was realized. With the help of accident cases and dynamic Bayes approach, the dust explosion consequence prediction index system and evaluation criteria were constructed, covering factors such as dust explosion intensity, casualties, direct economic losses, equipment damage, building damage, environmental damage and other factors. A polyethylene wax dust explosion accident in a city of China was used to verify the dust explosion accident scenario evolution model and consequences prediction model. The predicted results were in good agreement with the actual damage of various carriers of the accident, which indicated that the model could be used for dust explosion accident prediction and disaster loss prediction. The research results provided reference and technical support for the prediction of dust explosion accident evolution direction, emergency aid measures decision and deployment, disaster damage prediction and evaluation.     

标准BOD5测定法的"空气净化--稀释水曝气"装置研究

"稀释与接种法"是BOD5的标准测定方法,制备溶解氧接近饱和且不含能干扰生化耗氧过程的物质的稀释水,是该法重要的工作之一.由真空泵带动的"空气净化--稀释水曝气"装置,流程合理、装配容易、调控灵活,可连贯进行空气净化与稀释水曝气,而制取符合质量要求的稀释水.     

水污染源源解析研究最新进展

采取有效措施监测监管污染物排放是实现污染减排目标的必要条件,而准确掌握流域内污染物的来源是实现污染源有效监管的技术依据,文章对水污染源源解析目标化合物选取、污染物扩散模型研究和污染区域受体模型研究的最新进展进行了评述,对其发展趋势进行了展望.     

Stipulation of the criteria for the construction of eco agricultural county in China

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＮｏｗｗｅａｌｌｃｏｎｃｅｒｎｏｕｒｓｅｌｖｅｓｗｉｔｈｔｈｅｃｏｎｔｅｍｐｏｒａｒｙｐｒｏｂｌｅｍｓｏｆｏｖｅｒｐｏｐｕｌａｔｉｏｎ,ｒｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｅｘｐｌｏｉｔａｔｉｏｎ,ｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌｐｏｌｌｕｔｉｏｎａｎｄ...     

水生生物对三唑磷的物种敏感度分布研究

针对水环境中日益严重的有机磷农药污染问题,选择广泛使用的三唑磷作为研究对象,利用其对水生生态系统中不同营养层次生物物种的半数效应浓度(median effective concentration, EC₅₀),建立了基于对数-逻辑斯蒂分布的水生生物物种敏感度分布(species sensitivity distribution, SSD)模型,并采用概率图和吻合度检验方法对该模型进行了检验和评价.结果表明,水生生物对三唑磷的 SSD 服从对数-逻辑斯蒂分布,其参数为 α=-0.4788±0.2381,β=0.7546±0.1078.基于该 SSD 模型,获得三唑磷的 5% 危害浓度(hazardous concentration for 5% of the species, HC₅)值为 1.992×10^-3 mg/L,并推导出三唑磷的最大浓度基准值(criteria maximum concentration, CMC)值为 9.96×10^-4 mg/L.对 HC₅、CMC 与单一物种的安全浓度的比较研究指出,基于 SSD 方法制定环境质量标准更为严格,也更接近于真实的生态环境.另外,根据渤海莱州湾海域中三唑磷的监测数据,预测了其对物种的潜在影响比例(potentially affected fraction, PAF)为 0.36%,对该水域生态环境的影响处于较低风险水平.     

我国淡水生物氨氮基准研究

主要采用美国水生生物基准技术,结合美国氨氮水质基准数学模型,利用我国水生生物的氨氮毒性数据,对我国淡水生物氨氮基准进行了研究.共搜集了35种淡水生物的氨氮急性毒性数据和7种慢性毒性数据,得出的氨氮水质基准表现为以水体pH值和温度为自变量的函数,在pH 6.5～9.0、温度0～30℃的取值范围内,我国氨氮急性和慢性基准的...     

利用HYSPLIT模型研究珠三角地区VOCs时空分布特征

于2016年在中国广东大气超级监测站,开展4个季节的VOCs长时间观测,共获得2142组有效数据,并利用HYSPLIT模型分析珠三角地区VOCs时空分布特征.结果表明,各类VOCs混合比和化学反应活性具有明显的季节变化特点.观测期间,VOCs平均浓度为（18.523±20.978）×10^-9,其中,低碳烯烃和苯系物二者混合比之和仅占46%,但贡献了85%的·OH消耗速率（L_OH）、82%的臭氧生成潜势（OFP）和97%的二次气溶胶生成潜势（SOAFP）.观测站点主要受来自北部内陆地区气团（1#）、西部内陆地区气团（2#）、台湾海峡南端气团（3#）以及南部海洋地区气团（4#）的影响.1#气团中炔烃和苯系物的混合比占比最高,分别达到10%、37%,而3#气团中低碳烷烃的浓度水平最高,达到（8.437±5.561）×10^-9.通过估算气团中VOCs的化学反应活性,可以发现,1#气团的VOCs化学反应活性最强,其对O₃和SOA的生成贡献最高.1#、2#、3#和4#气团中VOCs的化学反应活性主要由苯系物和低碳烯烃贡献.