EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION ON CHANNEL INSTABILITY1

ABSTRACT: Channel instability and aquatic ecosystem degradation have been linked to watershed imperviousness in humid regions of the U.S. In an effort to provide a more process‐based linkage between observed thresholds of aquatic ecosystem degradation and urbanization, standard single event approaches (U.S. Geological Survey Flood Regression Equations and rational) and continuous hydrologic models (HSPF and CASC2D) were used to examine potential changes in flow regime associated with varying levels of watershed imperviousness. The predicted changes in flow parameters were then interpreted in concert with risk‐based models of channel form and instability. Although low levels of imperviousness (10 to 20 percent) clearly have the potential to destabilize streams, changes in discharge, and thus stream power, associated with increased impervious area are highly variable and dependent upon watershed‐specific conditions. In addition to the storage characteristics of the pre‐development watershed, the magnitude of change is sensitive to the connectivity and conveyance of impervious areas as well as the specific characteristics of the receiving channels. Different stream types are likely to exhibit varying degrees and types of instability, depending on entrenchment, relative erodibility of bed and banks, riparian condition, mode of sediment transport (bedload versus suspended load), and proximity to geomorphic thresholds. Nonetheless, simple risk‐based analyses of the potential impacts of land use change on aquatic ecosystems have the potential to redirect and improve the effectiveness of watershed management strategies by facilitating the identification of channels that may be most sensitive to changes in stream power.     

EFFECTS OF MULTI‐SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS ON AGRICULTURAL STREAM BIOTA IN EASTERN WISCONSIN1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Geological Survey examined 25 agricultural streams in eastern Wisconsin the determine relations between fish, invertebrate, and algal metrics and multiple spatial scales of land cover, geologic setting, hydrologic, aquatic habitat, and water chemistry data. Spearman correlation and redundancy analyses were used to examine relations among biotic metrics and environmental characteristics. Riparian vegetation, geologic, and hydrologic conditions affected the response of biotic metrics to watershed agricultural land cover but the relations were aquatic assemblage dependent. It was difficult to separate the interrelated effects of geologic setting, watershed and buffer land cover, and base flow. Watershed and buffer land cover, geologic setting, reach riparian vegetation width, and stream size affected the fish IBI, invertebrate diversity, diatom IBI, and number of algal taxa; however, the invertebrate FBI, percentage of EPT, and the diatom pollution index were more influenced by nutrient concentrations and flow variability. Fish IBI scores seemed most sensitive to land cover in the entire stream network buffer, more so than watershed‐scale land cover and segment or reach riparian vegetation width. All but one stream with more than approximately 10 percent buffer agriculture had fish IBI scores of fair or poor. In general, the invertebrate and algal metrics used in this study were not as sensitive to land cover effects as fish metrics. Some of the reach‐scale characteristics, such as width/depth ratios, velocity, and bank stability, could be related to watershed influences of both land cover and geologic setting. The Wisconsin habitat index was related to watershed geologic setting, watershed and buffer land cover, riparian vegetation width, and base flow, and appeared to be a good indicator of stream quality Results from this study emphasize the value of using more than one or two biotic metrics to assess water quality and the importance of environmental characteristics at multiple scales.     

A simulation model for projecting changes in salinity concentrations and species dominance in the coastal margin habitats of the Everglades

Sharp boundaries typically separate the salinity tolerant mangroves from the salinity intolerant hardwood hammock species, which occupy the similar geographical areas of southern Florida. Evidence of strong feedback between tree community-type and the salinity of the unsaturated (vadose) zone of the soil suggests that a severe disturbance that significantly tilts the salinity in the vadose zone might cause a shift from one vegetation type to the other. In this study, a model based upon the feedback dynamics between vegetation and salinity of the vadose zone of the soil was used to take account of storm surge events to investigate the mechanisms that by which this large-scale disturbance could affect the spatial pattern of hardwood hammocks and mangroves. Model simulation results indicated that a heavy storm surge that completely saturated the vadose zone at 30 ppt for 1 day could lead to a regime shift in which there is domination by mangroves of areas previously dominated by hardwood hammocks. Lighter storm surges that saturated the vadose zone at less than 7 ppt did not cause vegetation shifts. Investigations of model sensitivity analysis indicated that the thickness of the vadose zone, coupled with precipitation, influenced the residence time of high salinity in the vadose zone and therefore determined the rate of mangrove domination. The model was developed for a southern Florida coastal ecosystem, but its applicability may be much broader.     

Mass balanced and dynamic simulations of trophic models of kelp ecosystems near the Mejillones Peninsula of northern Chile (SE Pacific): Comparative network structure and assessment of harvest strategies

Mass balanced trophic models for kelp ecosystems which include subsystems dominated by Macrocystis integrifolia, Lessonia trabeculata and areas of barren ground (BG) were constructed for subtidal areas near the Mejillones Peninsula (SE Pacific), Chile. Information on biomass, P/B ratios, catches, food spectrum, consumption and dynamics of commercial and non-commercial populations was obtained and examined using Ecopath with Ecosim software analyses. The biomass of blades of L. trabeculata and M. integrifolia represented the compartments most relevant to the subsystems studied. Within the herbivores, the sea urchin Tetrapigus niger was dominant, followed by the snails Turritella sp. and Tegula sp. The fishes Pinguipes chilensis and Cheilodactylus variegatus were the dominant predators, followed by the asteroids Heliaster helianthus and Meyenaster gelatinosus. The highest system throughput (72,512 g wet weight m⁻² year⁻¹) was calculated for the subsystem dominated by M. integrifolia. The mean trophic level of the catch ranged from 1.1 (subsystem dominated by L. trabeculata) to 1.3 (subsystem dominated by M. integrifolia) to 3.2 (barren ground subsystem), showing that harvesting in each system was concentrated either on primary producers (blades of kelp species) or top predator fishes. Although the values for the Relative Ascendency (A/C) fluctuated from 36.5 to 45%, suggesting that all the systems were immature, the subsystem dominated by M. integrifolia emerged as the least resistant to external disturbances (e.g. fisheries). This result agreed with the high value of the system recovery time (SRT) for the M. integrifolia subsystem as a response to combined fisheries scenarios. The results obtained using mixed trophic impact (MTI) and Ecosim [increasing the fishing mortality F_i by 4×] showed that in most of the cases the predictions had the same qualitative tendencies. One of the most important results obtained in this study was that exploitation of kelp blades as an alternative strategy to harvesting the whole plants appeared to be ecologically sustainable, since harvesting the blades propagated only small effects on the entire subsystem. The fish P. chilensis may be considered as a top predator species with a strong top-down control since an increase in its fishing mortality in the subsystem dominated by M. integrifolia produced a high SRT value, and the F_MSY was less than the originally entered F_i in Ecopath. Based on the results obtained, it was concluded that the trophic mass balanced models and simulated management scenarios offered good possibilities for the planning of interventions and manipulations or the planning of more sustainable management strategies in highly disturbed natural systems.     

序贯高斯法模拟新沂、东海农业区土壤砷空间变异性

采用序贯高斯条件模拟值法,研究了江苏省新沂、东海农业区土壤砷含量空间变异性.结果表明,研究区土壤砷为正偏态分布,经高斯非线性转化后,符合二阶平稳假设.其经验半变异函数表现为各向同性.采用加权多项式法,对经验半变异函数拟合结果进行评价,并根据结果选择了带块金效应的高斯模型作为拟合模型.对研究区砷分布情况进行了100次模拟,模拟结果平稳.根据模拟数据与实际监测数据的关系,采用相关系数法选择最终模拟结果.研究区西北部土壤砷含量最高,中北部最低.     

Optimizing conservation in species-specific agricultural landscapes

Recovery of grassland birds in agricultural landscapes is a global imperative. Agricultural landscapes are complex, and the value of resource patches may vary substantially among species. The spatial extent at which landscape features affect populations (i.e., scale of effect) may also differ among species. There is a need for regional-scale conservation planning that considers landscape-scale and species-specific responses of grassland birds to environmental change. We developed a spatially explicit approach to optimizing grassland conservation in the context of species-specific landscapes and prioritization of species recovery and applied it to a conservation program in Kentucky (USA). We used a hierarchical distance-sampling model with an embedded scale of effect predictor to estimate the relationship between landscape structure and abundance of eastern meadowlarks (Sturnella magna), field sparrows (Spizella pusilla), and northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus). We used a novel spatially explicit optimization procedure rooted in multi-attribute utility theory to design alternative conservation strategies (e.g., prioritize only northern bobwhite recovery or assign equal weight to each species’ recovery). Eastern meadowlarks and field sparrows were more likely to respond to landscape-scale resource patch adjacencies than landscape-scale patch densities. Northern bobwhite responded to both landscape-scale resource patch adjacencies and densities and responded strongly to increased grassland density. Effects of landscape features on local abundance decreased as distance increased and had negligible influence at 0.8 km for eastern meadowlarks (0.7–1.2 km 95% Bayesian credibility intervals [BCI]), 2.5 km for field sparrows (1.5–5.8 km 95% BCI), and 8.4 km for bobwhite (6.4–26 km 95% BCI). Northern bobwhites were predicted to benefit greatly from future grassland conservation regardless of conservation priorities, but eastern meadowlark and field sparrow were not. Our results suggest similar species can respond differently to broad-scale conservation practices because of species-specific, distance-dependent relationships with landscape structure. Our framework is quantitative, conceptually simple, customizable, and predictive and can be used to optimize conservation in heterogeneous ecosystems while considering landscape-scale processes and explicit prioritization of species recovery.     

Accident modelling and analysis in process industries

Accident modelling is a methodology used to relate the causes and effects of events that lead to accidents. This modelling effectively seeks to answer two main questions: (i) Why does an accident occur, and (ii) How does it occur. This paper presents a review of accident models that have been developed for the chemical process industry with in-depth analyses of a class of models known as dynamic sequential accident models (DSAMs). DSAMs are sequential models with a systematic procedure to utilise precursor data to estimate the posterior risk profile quantitatively. DSAM also offers updates on the failure probabilities of accident barriers and the prediction of future end states. Following a close scrutiny of these methodologies, several limitations are noted and discussed, and based on these insights, future work is suggested to enhance and improve this category of models further.     

利用稳定同位素202Hg稀释技术判定不同来源有机肥施用对外源汞在土壤中形态分布的影响

有机肥施入土壤后,是否会对土壤重金属的活性及植物吸收造成影响是人们关心的问题.本研究应用稳定同位素²⁰²Hg稀释技术,通过培养实验和改进的Tessier连续提取法,探索不同来源有机肥(秸秆、杨树叶、油枯、酒糟、猪粪、鸡粪)施用对外源汞在天津潮土中形态分布及有效性的影响.结果表明,在连续提取法中结合同位素²⁰²Hg稀释技术,通过同位素比值R_Hg(²⁰²Hg/²⁰⁰Hg)的变化对Hg进行形态分析,相比传统的对Hg形态直接进行含量测定,可以更精确直观地反映出Hg形态分布的变化.在潮土中加入外源²⁰²Hg和有机肥后,同位素比值R_Hg最为显著的变化集中在交换态(含水溶态)、胡敏酸结合态、富里酸结合态及有机质结合态,且不同来源有机肥对Hg形态的影响也主要集中在这部分形态,对碳酸盐结合态、铁锰氧化物结合态和残渣态的影响较小.与未加入有机肥的对照处理相比,猪粪及鸡粪的施用使外源示踪²⁰²Hg显著向活性较强的交换态(含水溶态)、富里酸结合态转移,而在胡敏酸结合态中比例降低,下降幅度约为55%(猪粪)和58%(鸡粪).油枯及酒糟的施用,使外源示踪²⁰²Hg显著向活性较低的胡敏酸结合态转移,其同位素比值R_Hg分别增长了约90%(酒糟)和85%(油枯),而在活性较高的交换态(含水溶态)和富里酸结合态中分布比例降低.秸秆和杨树叶对于污染土壤Hg形态分布的影响并不显著.研究结果表明,不同来源的有机肥对Hg污染潮土中Hg的形态分布有显著影响,因此,在Hg污染农田土壤上施用有机肥料需要格外谨慎.     

流域社会经济的水环境效应评估新方法及在南四湖的应用

针对我国湖泊生态安全评估及“一湖一策”工作的需要,初步提出一种流域社会经济的水环境效应评估新方法,与以往思路不同的是,新方法体现了正向作用和逆向反馈、现状水平和未来演变趋势相结合的认知框架,并系统阐述了指标优选、评估标准确定、等级划分和不确定性评估方法.最后,选择水质良好的湖泊代表——南四湖开展案例解析.结果表明:通过当前水平和未来变化速率更能全面认识评估结果,也有利于确定流域社会经济系统调控战略的必要性及潜力、方向和阈值;南四湖评估指数从2000年的“Ⅳ级:较严重”提升到2010年的“Ⅱ级:较轻”,尤其是在2003年和2007年存在2个“跳跃式”提升,但若维持现状规模和高速发展速度,未来20年很可能呈现逐渐缓慢下降趋势,并长期处于“Ⅲ级:一般”水平;为了确保维持现状等级且稳中小幅度上升的趋势,到2030年,建议南四湖流域社会经济发展速度控制在过去11年平均增长速度的75％左右以下,环境响应措施力度可能需要提升到评估标准的Ⅰ级水平.     

不同含量外源镉在红壤中的变化特征

为探讨外源离子态镉（Cd）进入红壤后随时间的变化特征,在农田土壤中添加不同含量的Cd （0、0.3、2.0、5.0、10、30、60和100 mg ·kg^-1）,分别于第3、7、14、28、42、56、70和84 d时取样,采用BCR分级提取法分析农田土壤Cd的赋存形态,使用3种动力学模型模拟农田土壤Cd的稳定化和分布特征.结果表明：①外源Cd进入土壤后,土壤Cd的形态会重新进行分配,趋向于供试土壤Cd原始形态分布特征,Cd与土壤的结合强度会随时间的增加而增加,并且总再分配系数会逐渐趋于1.②红壤中外源Cd的稳定化是一个较为长期的过程.弱酸可提取态会逐渐向其他3种形态转换,最终转换为残渣态.在84d内,可氧化态在0.3 mg ·kg^-1时,会随时间逐渐减小,其余形态则相反.在84 d内,可还原态在30 mg ·kg^-1以下时,会随时间逐渐减小,其余形态则相反.③在红壤中,外源Cd的稳定化过程主要是多个反应机制共同控制的扩散过程.当外源Cd添加量越高时,会导致其残渣态的变化速率越高.研究结果可为以外源Cd为基础的相关研究以及重金属污染土壤风险管控与修复提供理论依据.