基于范例推理的灾害性地震应急物资需求预测研究

基于范例推理(CBR)理论,利用最近相邻法和粗糙集理论搜索相似度最高的主震历史范例,分析各主要物资需求量的影响因素,预测当前范例主震期应急物资需求量。通过序贯决策,采用马尔科夫预测模型预测余震类型,进而搜索余震历史范例,预测余震期应急物资需求量。以"玉树"地震为例,运用该方法估算地震发生后食物类、生活用品类、药品类、工程机械类的需求量。     

逐级提取(SEE)技术及其在沉积物和土壤元素形态研究中的应用

概述了元素形态的研究方法,介绍了SEE技术及其在沉积物、土壤元素形态研究中的应用,并就该技术在元素形态研究中的作用、实现标准化的可能性及难度、未来发展趋势等问题进行了探讨,得出了以下三点认识:(1)SEE技术是目前沉积物、土壤元素形态研究的必要手段,但其在未来元素形态研究中的作用,在很大程度上取决于技术本身的标准化和新发展以及其它形态分析方法的发展;(2)根据研究目的,系统研究不同样品的采集和预处理方法、试剂种类和浓度以及操作条件等元素形态影响因素,对现有流程进行改进或提出新的更合理的流程,作为SEE技术的标准流程,是必要且可能的,但其任务也是艰巨的;(3)SEE技术可能向两个趋势发展,分别形成微波加热-连续流-逐级提取(MCSE)技术以及微波加热-超声波震荡-动力学-平行提取(MUKPE)技术。     

QuickPanel在油浆过滤自动控制系统中的应用研究

阐述了油浆过滤控制系统的硬件配置、分程控制及顺序控制等．通过控制系统的控制,过滤器A、B轮流进行过滤、再生步骤,将油品内51μm以上的颗粒过滤掉,达到提高油品质量、延迟装置检维修期的目标．图1,参5．     

青海省1998—2012年草地生态系统服务功能价值评估

由于人类活动对草地生态系统的干扰,草地退化加剧,科学评估草地生态系统服务功能的价值对于草地保护与管理决策具有重要意义。论文通过整合青海省多源、多尺度、多过程的生态环境数据,结合大规模的野外调查数据,构建各类专项和综合数据库,以千年生态评估生态系统服务分类系统和Costanza等的分类方法为基础,结合青海省生态系统特征及生态地位,选取了青海省生态系统服务指标评估体系。开发定量核算青海省生态系统服务功能及其价值的数据-模型融合平台,对青海省1998—2012年的草地生态系统固碳释氧、水文调节、土壤保持、生物多样性等16种生态系统服务功能价值进行了全面的评估,成功实现了草地生态系统服务价值评估的动态化、精细化和智能化。结果表明：1998—2012年草地生态系统服务功能总价值在2 349.97~3 374.49亿元之间,均值为2 935.63亿元,是青海省2012年全省GDP的1.55倍,平均每公顷达92.87万元。最后,以此为基础,提出青海省草地生态系统适应性管理策略,为青海省生态立省战略提供决策支持和依据。     

城市人工构筑物的多尺度生态影响

人工构筑物是城市生态系统的重要组成部分,是人-自然耦合关系的基本作用单元。自然要素中的水、土、气、生通过人工构筑物这一基本单元作用或影响人的生存、健康与发展,而人通过构筑物作用或影响自然中的水、土、气、生,进一步进化成人为主导、构筑物为基础、自然要素为条件的城市生态系统。论文综述了近年来人工构筑物多尺度生态影响的研究进展,评述了人工构筑物对土壤（水）、大气、生物生态影响的前沿动态,提出了各研究分支的关注重点及要解决的关键问题,分析了人工构筑物生态学研究的方法学问题与挑战,展望了未来该领域的基本发展走向。论文认为,构筑物生态影响涉及城乡水、土、气、生及人的健康等不同方面,现有的相关研究分散而局部,且受技术方法局限,分析结果存在很大的不确定性,研究面临巨大的转型挑战。未来构筑物生态学研究需要多学科、多尺度、多层次的系统化方法与技术的推动,城乡生态观测与实验技术的发展、多源数据处理技术以及智能计算方法的创新是该领域取得重大发展的基础与条件。     

干法烟气脱硫副产物中汞的形态分布

通过分析干法烟气脱硫副产物中不同形态汞的含量,研究干法脱硫灰中汞的环境稳定性. 利用逐级化学提取法,分析了锅炉底灰、锅炉飞灰、脱硫塔底灰和除尘器灰中水溶态、酸溶态、过氧化氢溶态及王水溶残渣态汞的含量,研究了不同形态汞含量的变化规律. 结果表明,锅炉底灰、锅炉飞灰、脱硫塔底灰和除尘器灰中w（总汞）分别为0.23,0.36,0.46和1.22 mg/kg,且随着脱硫除尘时间的延长w（总汞）呈增加的趋势,其中,以氯化物、硝酸盐和硫酸盐存在的水溶态汞变化明显,除尘器灰中w（水溶态汞）高达0.72 mg/kg. 分析认为,干法烟气脱硫灰吸附的大部分汞蒸气转化为可溶性的氯化物、硝酸盐和硫酸盐等,另外还有少量汞以单质状态存在.      

Assessment of spatial distribution of submerged vegetation in the Orbetello lagoon by means of a mathematical model

Coastal lagoons are characterized by a constant threat of eutrophication and a critical coexistence of differing submerged vegetation forms. This paper investigates the competitive equilibrium of macroalgae and phanerogams in the Orbetello lagoon in relation to physico-chemical and environmental factors, including wind, nutrients in the water column, and sediment characteristics. A mathematical model describing the evolution of the submerged vegetation as a function of the abiotic parameters is used here in conjunction with specific experimental studies to explain the relationship between phanerogams (seagrasses) prairie expansion, water movements, and sediment characteristics. The combination of specific sediment sampling and mathematical modelling shows that water circulation and the state of the upper sediment are both dominant factors in determining the phanerogams distribution in the lagoon and the mutually exclusive growth of these groups in differing parts of the lagoon. Water currents control the distribution of floating macroalgae, resulting in an uneven accumulation of decomposing biomass and phanerogams seed dispersal. The oxygenation provided by the rooted phanerogams affects the sediment characteristics, making them suitable for further prairie expansion. In addition to sediment analysis the use of a mathematical model combining the hydrodynamics and the water quality of the lagoon provides a thorough explanation of the expansion of the rooted vegetation in critical areas. A further result of this research is the validation of the model, originally calibrated with the lagoon central stations’ data, with the newly acquired data from several other parts of the ecosystem. The model predictions are in good agreement with the field observations under a number of environmental conditions and explain the observed expansion trend of phanerogams, which are beneficial for the lagoon ecology, more thoroughly than by relying on the sediment observations alone.     

煤及木材燃烧飞灰中有毒金属形态分布

选取３各燃煤产生的飞灰颗粒物和一种燃木产生的飞灰作为研究对象,为了更好地了解颗粒物上有毒金属被浸取进入液相情况,分析３种不同浸取剂（二乙三氯五乙酸（ＤＴＰＡ）、乙二胺四乙酸（ＥＤＴＡ）和氨三乙酸（ＮＴＡ））的提取液中有毒金属Ｐｂ、Ｃｒ、Ｃｏ、Ｎｉ、Ｍｎ、Ｃｕ、Ｚｎ、Ｃｄ、Ａｓ、Ｓｒ等的含量。结果表明,金属浓度因飞灰种类、浸取剂种类及金属本身类型不同而不同。由于颗粒物上金属的生物可利用性、毒性及可流     

FROM FLOW TO FISH TO DOLLARS: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO WATER ALLOCATION1

This paper details a case study of economic and natural system responses to alternative water management policies in the Cache La Poudre River basin, Colorado, 1980–1994. The case study is presented to highlight the value and application of a conceptual integration of economic, salmonid population, physical habitat, and water allocation models. Five alternative regimes, all intended to increase low winter flows, were investigated. Habitat enhancements created by alternative regimes were translated to population responses and economic benefits. Analysis concluded that instream flows cannot compete on the northern Colorado water rental market; cooperative agreements offer an economically feasible way to enhance instream flows; and establishing an instream flow program on the Cache La Poudre River mainstem is a potentially profitable opportunity. The alliance of models is a dynamic multidisciplinary tool for use in professional settings and offers valuable insight for decision-making processes involved in water management.     

POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE GREAT PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on the current assessment of climate impacts on water resources, including aquatic ecosystems, agricultural demands, and water management, in the U.S. Great Plains. Climate change in the region may have profound effects on agricultural users, aquatic ecosystems, and urban and industrial users alike. In the central Great Plains Region, the potential impacts of climate changes include changes in winter snowfall and snow-melt, growing season rainfall amounts and intensities, minimum winter temperature, and summer time average temperature. Specifically, results from general circulation models indicate that both annual average temperatures and total annual precipitation will increase over the region. However, the seasonal patterns are not uniform. The combined effect of these changes in weather patterns and average seasonal climate will affect numerous sectors critical to the economic, social and ecological welfare of this region. Research is needed to better address the current competition among the water needs of agriculture, urban and industrial uses, and natural ecosystems, and then to look at potential changes. These diverse demands on water needs in this region compound the difficulty in managing water use and projecting the impact of climate changes among the various critical sectors in this region.