Screening for Down's syndrome in older women based on maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels and age: Preliminary results

We report the results of screening for Down's syndrome (DS) in older women using published rate schedules based on maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) and age. Five hundred and seventeen patients aged 35 years and older, who were referred for a mid-trimester genetic amniocentesis, were first tested for MSAFP and then underwent an amniocentesis. Individual risks for DS, combining MSAFP and age, were derived using three different published rate schedules. Theoretical selection for amniocentesis was made using the cut-off level of the average collective risk for a 35-year-old woman (1:380 at live birth or 1:270 at amniocentesis). Six affected pregnancies (five with DS and one with trisomy 18), which were diagnosed prenatally, were all found to be at a higher risk than the specified cut-off. These cases would have been diagnosed in any event, using any of the published rate schedules. According to these rate schedules, between 39 and 45 per cent of the patients would be in the lower risk group and therefore would have been counselled not to undergo amniocentesis. Further studies should be conducted in order to reach conclusive screening policies for DS in older women.     

Trisomy 18 and maternal serum and amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein

Maternal serum and amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein levels were studied retrospectively in a total of 58 pregnancies with trisomy 18. In those pregnancies uncomplicated by either fetal exomphalos or neural tube defect the midtrimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) levels were markedly reduced, the median value for 38 such pregnancies being 0.6 multiples of the median (MoM). Trisomy 18 with exomphalos was associated with a higher median MSAFP, but still within the normal range: 1.1 MoM, (nine pregnancies); trisomy 18 with exomphalos and neural tube defect (NTD) was associated with grossly raised levels: median MSAFP was 4-5 MoM (three pregnancies). Amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein (AFAFP) levels were normal in uncomplicated trisomy 18 pregnancies: median AFAFP, for 19 pregnancies, was 1.1 MoM. Exomphalos alone, or together with neural tube defect, was associated with greatly elevated levels of AFAFP; for exomphalos alone median AFAFP was 9.59 MoM (four pregnancies), and for exomphalos with neural tube defect the median AFAFP was 23.95 Mom (three pregnancies). Screening with low and high MSAFP, routine ultrasound, and amniocentesis on all women aged 35 years or over, together might identify over 50 per cent of pregnancies with trisomy 18.     

Maternal serum free beta hCG screening: Results of studies including 480 cases of down syndrome

The median maternal serum free beta human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) multiple of the median (MOM) of 480 Down syndrome cases in the second trimester was 2·64, significantly greater than the reported median MOM of intact hCG (p<0·0001). In 234 of these cases from retrospective and prospective studies, the effectiveness of maternal serum free beta hCG was evaluated in combination with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and maternal age in second-trimester Down syndrome screening. Down syndrome detection in the gestational age range of 14–16 weeks was 82 per cent. In all gestational weeks (14–22), a 77·7 per cent Down syndrome detection rate was achieved. In prospective screening of 44 272 patients under the age of 35 years, 69 per cent of Down syndrome cases were detected (73 per cent in gestational weeks 14–16). The false-positive rate for the prospective study was 3·8 per cent. The use of free beta hCG combined with maternal serum AFP and maternal age-related risk for Down syndrome in a screening population (i.e., women under 35 years) yields an improved detection efficiency over other protocols.     

Racial differences in maternal serum human chorionic gonadotropin and unconjugated oestriol levels

We assayed maternal serum samples from 134 black and 268 white women from 16 to 18 weeks of gestation for intact human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), and unconjugated oestriol (uE3). Serum from women with high ( ⩾ 2·5 MOMs) or low (risk for Down syndrome ⩾ 1/365) maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) levels were excluded. After correcting for maternal weight, we found that median hCG levels were 16 per cent higher in black women but uE3 levels were not significantly different. These results confirm three other studies for hCG and one study for uE3. Corrections are recommended for both maternal serum hCG and AFP before calculating the risk for Down syndrome in black women.     

Implications of 'low maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels: Are maternal age risk criteria obsolete?

An association has been reported between “low” maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) and fetal chromosome abnormalities, notably Down syndrome. We suggest the predictive value be used for genetic counselling when a “low” MSAFP is found, and present an illustrative risk table. It can also be seen that normal MSAFP in a woman may lower her age-related risks below that previously defined as “high risk”. However, until good estimates of sensitivity and specificity are available from prospective, population based studies, patients should be told that any risk estimates are rough approximations. When good estimates are available, use of age risks alone may become obsolete.     

Ultrasound screening for fetal abnormalities

Ultrasound screening for fetal abnormalities is increasingly becoming part of routine antenatal care in Europe and the UK. However, there has been very little formal evaluation of this practice. In this article reports of routine ultrasound screening are reviewed and the advantages and disadvantages discussed. The majority of routine anomaly scanning is done in the second trimester but there may be a case for screening at other times in pregnancy and alternative anomaly screening policies are discussed.     

Risk-based prenatal screening for trisomy 18 using alpha-fetoprotein,unconjugated oestriol and human chorionic gonadotropin

Nine centres collaborated to examine the feasibility of a screening method for trisomy 18 that was based on assigning individual risk, using a combination of maternal age and measurements of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE3), and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG). Second-trimester measurements of these analytes were obtained from 94 trisomy 18 pregnancies. In the 89 pregnancies without an associated open defect, the median levels for AFP, uE3, and hCG were 0.65, 0.43 and 0.36 multiples of the unaffected population median, respectively. The strongest individual predictor of risk for trisomy 18 was uE3, followed by hCG, AFP, and maternal age, in that order. Using a method of individual risk estimation that is based on the three markers and maternal age, 60 per cent of pregnancies associated with trisomy 18 would be detected at a risk cut-off level of 1:100, with a false-positive rate of about 0.2 per cent. One in nine pregnancies identified as being at increased risk for trisomy 18 would be expected to have an affected pregnancy. This risk-based screening method is more efficient than an existing method that is based on fixed analyte cut-off levels. Even though the birth prevalence of trisomy 18 is low, prenatal screening can be justified when performed in conjunction with Down syndrome screening and when a high proportion of women offered amniocentesis have an affected fetus.     

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