大气环境影响评价工作分级要求要点

根据大气环境影响评价工作的分级要求,提出了针对性的工作要点,以满足大气环境评价工作的需要.     

Discounting in the presence of scarce ecosystem services

The discount rate for cost-benefit analysis has to take account of future scarcity of ecosystem services in consumption and production. Previous literature focuses on the first aspect and shows the importance of the relative price effect, for given growth rates of consumption and ecosystem services. This paper focuses on intermediate ecosystem services in production and shows that for limited substitutability and a low growth rate of these ecosystem services, the growth rate of consumption, and thus the discount rate, declines towards a low value. Using a Ramsey growth model, the paper distinguishes three cases. If ecosystem services can be easily substituted, the discount rate converges to the usual value in the long term. Secondly, if ecosystem services can be easily substituted in production but not in consumption, the relative price effect is important. Finally, and most interestingly, if ecosystem services cannot be easily substituted in production, the discount rate declines towards a low value and the relative price effect is less important. Another part of the previous literature has shown that a declining discount rate is the result of introducing several forms of uncertainty, but this paper reaches that conclusion from an endogenous effect on the growth rate of the economy.     

Implications of human value shift and persistence for biodiversity conservation

Large‐scale change in human values and associated behavior change is believed by some to be the ultimate solution to achieve global biodiversity conservation. Yet little is known about the dynamics of values. We contribute to this area of inquiry by examining the trajectory of values affecting views of wildlife in North America. Using data from a 19‐state study in the United States and global data from the Schwartz Value Survey, we explored questions of value persistence and change and the nature of attitudinal responses regarding wildlife conservation issues. We found support, based on subjects’ ancestry, for the supposition that domination is a prevalent American value orientation toward wildlife that has origins in European Judeo‐Christian traditions. Independent of that effect, we also found indications of change. Modernization is contributing to a shift from domination to mutualism value orientations, which is fostering attitudes less centered on human interests and seemingly more consistent with a biocentric philosophy. Our findings suggest that if value shift could be achieved in a purposeful way, then significant and widespread behavior change believed necessary for long‐term conservation success may indeed be possible. In particular, greater emphasis on mutualism values may help provide the context for more collaborative approaches to support future conservation efforts. However, given the societal forces at play, it is not at all clear that human‐engineered value shift is tenable. Instead of developing strategies aimed at altering values, it may be more productive to create strategies that recognize and work within the boundaries of existing values. Whereas values appear to be in a period of flux, it will be difficult to predict future trends without a better understanding of value formation and shift, particularly under conditions of rapid social‐ecological change.     

Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

某型机襟翼舱下壁板蒙皮腐蚀原因分析与修理措施研究

目的研究某型机襟翼舱下壁板蒙皮产生腐蚀损伤的原因,分析腐蚀危害性,制定腐蚀修补方案,提出后续腐蚀防护与控制的建议措施。方法首先现场仔细检查结构的腐蚀状况,然后分别从结构设计与选材、服役环境分析、腐蚀产物分析3个方面研究结构腐蚀产生的成因,并且针对性地制定腐蚀部位的补强修理方案。结果在襟翼舱局部高温湿热环境下形成的内部冷凝水,夹杂大气环境中的Cl~-污染侵袭,导致壁板蒙皮材料LY12铝合金产生了晶间剥落腐蚀。结论老龄飞机机体结构腐蚀成因复杂多样,准确界定腐蚀原因是制定腐蚀防护与控制措施的关键。     

基于生态系统服务功能的城市规划研究

健康的生态系统是城市可持续发展的重要基础,生态系统服务功能及价值评估是评价生态系统的重要指标,森林、草地、湿地等生态系统在调节气候、保持土壤、涵养水源等方面具有重要作用.以宁波市北仑区为例,应用市场价值化方法粗略地分析了该区域的生态系统服务功能现状,结果表明,13年间北仑区的生态服务价值下降11.35%,其中,草地的生态服务价值下降最快,降幅达79.84%.从生态经济学角度阐释森林等生态系统在城市开发建设中的重要性.     

摩擦清洗修复铅污染土壤的参数优化及清洗效率评价

采用摩擦清洗法修复铅污染场地土壤,主要目的是将细颗粒和铅污染物从砂粒表面去除.通过正交实验优化清洗参数,并对3份不同铅含量土壤进行摩擦清洗实验.优化的清洗参数为:水土比70%干物质、温度25℃、搅拌时间30 min、搅拌速率1 200 r.mim-1.摩擦清洗前土壤经过筛分化验分析表明,3份土壤铅主要富集在砂粒和粉黏粒中;铅的分布与有机质有极大相关性.结果表明,经过摩擦清洗后,3份原状铅污染土壤砂粒的清洗效率分别为:67.61%、31.71%、41.01%,摩擦清洗从砂粒表面去除一部分细粒土壤和铅污染物,使铅浓缩至粉黏粒中;扫描电镜(SEM)分析表明,摩擦清洗后砂粒表面变光滑.以上结论说明摩擦清洗对于铅污染场地的砂粒土壤具有较好的清洗效果.     

基于生态足迹改进模型的生态安全及其预测研究

由William Rees提出的生态足迹模型已经成为近年来生态可持续发展的重要的度量工具,但是该模型仅考虑了土地的基本生产功能,忽视了土地生态系统的服务功能。文章借鉴生态系统服务功能理论改进了传统的生态足迹模型,将生态系统服务功能价值当量因子引入生态足迹模型均衡因子和产量因子的计算中,改进后的模型体现了生态系统功能的完整性;同时,文章以江苏省2010年的统计数据为基础,应用改进模型计算了其2010年生态压力指数,结果表明,江苏省生态压力指数达到1.495,其安全状况已经超过了极不安全边界,处于极不安全状态;最后利用灰色理论GM(1,1)模型对其2011-2015年的生态安全状况进行了预测,发现江苏省未来5年生态压力指数快速增大,年平均增长速度为6.89%,表明江苏省未来5年生态安全状况将继续恶化,这将严重影响其生态可持续发展和经济可持续发展。     

咸潮预警值设定的研究

为研究咸潮预警,上海某饮用水源地安装了蓝色卫士水质综合预警系统。采用实验室配制人工海水模拟减潮,通过动态实验研究蓝色卫士的成潮预警值。试验证明,成潮预警值设定范围为1．6～1．8较好。经过连续1a自动监测,蓝色卫士共准确预警预报两次成潮,成功保障了该水源地的饮水安全。     

水中总氮空白的影响因素的探讨

本研究以水中总氮空白值为研究对象,不同厂家的过硫酸钾和不同试验用水条件下的总氮空白的变化规律。研究结果表明：无氨水和二次水蒸出来的总氮空白明显低于一次水蒸出来的总氮空白;这跟蒸馏水纯度有关系,一次水含有氨,所以消解时蒸馏水中的氨会被氧化,从而导致空白值偏高。同样有的厂家的过硫酸钾纯度不高,所以导致空白值高。