东江流域生态系统服务价值变化研究

从生态系统的类型、质量和功能的时空变化出发,利用遥感和地理信息系统技术,结合市场价值法、影子工程法、机会成本法等方法,并在全面考虑各类型生态系统服务功能和基础数据可获得性的基础上,对东江流域的生态系统服务价值进行科学评估,揭示生态系统服务价值的时空变化特征。结果表明:2000-2008年东江流域生态系统服务总价值呈减少趋势,且除水域外,其余生态系统的单位面积生态服务价值均为2008年比2000年有所减少,说明流域生态系统的质量呈下降趋势。林地的单位面积生态服务价值2004-2008年的年均减少率大于2000-2004年,反映了流域森林资源的质量加速下降的状况;从空间上看,虽然上中游单位面积的生态系统服务价值大于下游,但上游单位面积生态系统服务价值减少得比较剧烈。     

Hepatitis B triple series vaccine and developmental disability in US children aged 1–9 years

This study investigated the association between vaccination with the Hepatitis B triple series vaccine prior to 2000 and developmental disability in children aged 1–9 years (n = 1824), proxied by parental report that their child receives early intervention or special education services (EIS). National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2000 data were analyzed and adjusted for survey design by Taylor Linearization using SAS version 9.1 software, with SAS callable SUDAAN version 9.0.1. The odds of receiving EIS were approximately nine times as great for vaccinated boys (n = 46) as for unvaccinated boys (n = 7), after adjustment for confounders. This study found statistically significant evidence to suggest that boys in United States who were vaccinated with the triple series Hepatitis B vaccine, during the time period in which vaccines were manufactured with thimerosal, were more susceptible to developmental disability than were unvaccinated boys.     

Multi-temporal land use and cover changing analysis: the environmental impact in Mediterranean area

ABSTRACT

Human activity shapes the levels of anthropogenic pressure that depend on the land management method adopted. This has a fundamental role in the transformation of traditional landscapes. This study focuses on a representative region of the Mediterranean area with the objective to analyse the landscape’s dynamics, to detect the spatial arrangement of class patches, to identify the main agroecosystem characters and to provide a framework to assess ecosystems services. In order to assess land use/land cover changes and landscape persistence, the period between 1960 and 2012 was analysed, taking into consideration the years 1960, 2000 and 2012 using comparable land use maps. Land use and land cover analysis show an urban area growth of 24% during 2000–2012 and of 523% over between 1960 and 2012. The very high levels of land abandonment up to the year 2000 (+7216%) have reversed their trend between 2000 and 2012 (?95%). The orchards showed a relevant increase, particularly after 2000, while the vineyards were linked to the highest value of surface erosion (?74%). The outcomes showed that urban settlements can damage the ecological network with negative effects on the landscape’s environmental sustainability in proximity of significant urban centres. Instead, the ecological network is well preserved and highly associated to the agricultural areas when there is the persistence of many land uses and low urban density, despite the presence of dynamic changes.     

Trends in Deforestation and Forest Degradation after a Decade of Monitoring in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in Mexico

We used aerial photographs, satellite images, and field surveys to monitor forest cover in the core zones of the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in Mexico from 2001 to 2012. We used our data to assess the effectiveness of conservation actions that involved local, state, and federal authorities and community members (e.g., local landowners and private and civil organizations) in one of the world's most iconic protected areas. From 2001 through 2012, 1254 ha were deforested (i.e., cleared areas had <10% canopy cover), 925 ha were degraded (i.e., areas for which canopy forest decreased), and 122 ha were affected by climatic conditions. Of the total 2179 ha of affected area, 2057 ha were affected by illegal logging: 1503 ha by large‐scale logging and 554 ha by small‐scale logging. Mexican authorities effectively enforced efforts to protect the monarch reserve, particularly from 2007 to 2012. Those efforts, together with the decade‐long financial support from Mexican and international philanthropists and businesses to create local alternative‐income generation and employment, resulted in the decrease of large‐scale illegal logging from 731 ha affected in 2005–2007 to none affected in 2012, although small‐scale logging is of growing concern. However, dire regional social and economic problems remain, and they must be addressed to ensure the reserve's long‐term conservation. The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) overwintering colonies in Mexico—which engage in one of the longest known insect migrations—are threatened by deforestation, and a multistakeholder, regional, sustainable‐development strategy is needed to protect the reserve. Tendencias en la Deforestación y la Degradación de Forestal después de una Década de Monitoreo en la Reserva de la Biósfera de la Mariposa Monarca en México     

湿地生态系统服务价值评价去重复性研究的思考

重复计算一直是困扰湿地生态系统服务价值评价的一个难点问题。湿地生态系统服务的复杂性及其组成分的非线性容易导致在计算湿地生态系统服务价值时容易导致重复计算,如果不能正确的去除湿地生态系统服务价值评价中重复计算的部分,会使评估结果的可信度降低。湿地生态系统服务价值评价的重复性计算主要体现在两个方面,总服务价值评价中的重复计算和部分服务之间的重复计算。湿地生态系统服务由湿地生态系统和生物多样性产生,并为人类福祉做出贡献,在这一过程中,湿地生态系统功能与服务的复杂的关系及服务之间的因果关系容易导致在计算生态系统总的服务价值时重复计算的产生,也就是分类时存在重复计算。部分服务之间的重复计算则主要是由于指标的模糊不清、参数的重复和评价方法的选择导致的。通过分析湿地生态系统服务价值评价重复性计算产生的原因,文章提出了一个具体的解决框架,包括最终服务的确定、指标的明确、模型的构建以及评估方法的选择等。首先,将湿地生态系统服务分成中间服务和最终服务,以最终服务作为最终要评价的服务;其次,针对部分服务中可能存在的重复计算,从指标和参数的明确、评价方法的选择和数学模型的构建等方面进行解决;最后,构建一个优化的湿地生态系统服务价值评价体系。希望通过这些解决办法来降低湿地生态系统服务价值评价中重复计算的可能性,以期更加准确的评估湿地生态系统服务。     

上海城市河流生态系统服务的支付意愿

条件价值评估法(CVM)是推导环境资源生态系统服务的支付意愿的标准方法之一.以全国城市河流整治的样板工程--上海浦东张家浜为例,采用支付卡式CVM研究方法,对该城市河流生态系统服务的支付意愿进行了分析.共发放支付卡式CVM问卷800份,回收有效问卷646份.获得张家浜生态系统服务的平均支付意愿为195.07～253.04元/(a·户),将研究结果与国内外部分研究进行了比较.讨论了支付意愿的分布形态和范围,对支付意愿与受访者个人社会经济变量(收入、学历、捐款经历和环境态度等)的回归关系进行了较为详细的分析,并对回归结论进行了环境经济学解释.对支付卡式CVM研究中导致支付意愿产生偏差的部分原因作了一定讨论.最后提出了用CVM推导支付意愿的研究方法面对的批评和争议以及CVM研究结论可靠性的环境决策依据.     

全国生态系统食物生产功能空间特征及其影响因素

随着我国人口的迅速增长以及工业化、城镇化进程的加快,生态环境遭到破坏,使得食物生产不稳定,食物安全问题日益突出,评价我国食物生产功能具有十分重要的意义。依据食物生产产量,根据营养成分转化率,将各类食物折算成热量来统一核算,研究评价了我国生态系统食物生产功能的空间分布特征,并利用ArcGIS、SPSS进行空间分析及影响因子分析,结果表明:① 2010 年,我国生态系统的食物生产总量为11 765.28×10¹² kJ,空间上呈现东南多西北少的分布格局;② 华东、华中、东北地理区,河南、山东、黑龙江三省具有较高的食物生产能力;③ 耕地质心的转移并没有引起食物生产质心的转移,技术要素的投入更能提高食物生产能力,研究发现粮食播种面积、有效灌溉面积、化肥使用量等与食物生产热量呈显著正相关(P<0.01)。因此,充分利用自然资源,合理增大技术要素投入的力度,是提高我国食物生产能力的重要途径。     

重点工业行业碳排放现状与减排定位分析

基于企业样本数据和省级数据库,本文对中国电力、钢铁及水泥行业进行碳排放量核算、排放集中度分析、达峰情况分类及脱钩状态判断,并通过聚类分析方法判断各省份在减排行动中的定位。结果表明,全国钢铁及水泥行业碳排放量在2014年后增长明显放缓,电力行业碳排放量持续上升;在省级层面,电力、钢铁及水泥行业分别有15个、7个及12个省份碳排放量仍在快速增长;在空间分布上,电力行业碳排放呈现"东高西低",钢铁行业碳排放集中在河北周边,水泥行业碳排放呈现"南高北低中部突出";时间趋势上,各省份电力行业和水泥行业逐渐实现碳排放量与产品产量之间的脱钩,在产量增长的情况下碳排放量增长减缓甚至降低,各省份钢铁行业碳排放量与产量之间的脱钩状态则较为多样化。     

Is the WTO after your water? The General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and poor people's right to water

The General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) seeks to expand international trade in a wide range of services ranging from tourism to telecommunications and education. In recent years, it has come under attack from civil society organizations in both the North and the South for having a detrimental impact on poor people's right to basic services. This article explores some of these controversies, using the example of water services. It focuses specifically on the impact of the GATS on poor people's right to water and national governments’ ability to safeguard the interests of poor people through regulation. It demonstrates that, de jure, the liberalization of water‐related services under the GATS may not necessarily undermine the ability of governments to introduce the kind of legislative measures necessary to realize poor people's right to water. Still, de facto, the exercise of policy autonomy might be substantially curtailed due to inherent ambiguities in treaty interpretation, the politics of process arising out of power asymmetries, a lack of transparency in processes of negotiation as well as institutional and other deficiencies in the domestic politics of WTO member states.     

Refuting the paradigm of water services privatisation

The aim of this article is to question the fundamental assumptions behind privatisation and public–private partnerships. The article shows that instead of radically increasing private sector involvement, public sector reforms should be seriously considered. Public–private partnerships should be implemented so that the strengths of all the stakeholders may be fully utilised.