基于轮廓似然函数的PM_(10)极值浓度分析

以R软件为分析工具,选择GEV(generalized extreme value distribution)模型拟合四川省泸州市2003～2007年期间PM10每月最高日平均浓度数据,采用极大似然法估计模型的3个参数即位置参数、尺度参数、形状参数,利用所得的参数估计值计算得出某一标准值(如GB3095—1996)的重现期;进一步利用参数估计值计算轮廓似然函数,估计某一段固定时间间隔的PM10浓度的重现值以及其置信区间。结果表明,GEV模型能很好地拟合泸州市PM10数据,利用轮廓似然函数估计的不同时间间隔的重现值准确度高,统计结果可以为环境主管部门发布污染状况预警信息提供参考。     

浅析总量监测中"生产周期"的确定及频次优化

根据排污周期确定加密监测采样频次,用实例说明有规律排污过程的生产特点,提出固定频次法进行监测频次优化的应用建议。     

中国转型期水环境治理中的政府责任研究

水环境问题已成为制约我国长期可持续发展的主要瓶颈.如何有效治理水环境问题已引起全社会的普遍关注.本文在全面分析水环境公共物品属性以及水环境问题的客观现实的基础上,论证了政府承担治理水环境责任的必要性.进而对现阶段政府承担的水环境治理责任进行研究,归纳出其环境治理责任主要有财政责任、制度责任、监管责任和社会整合责任.然后对水环境治理中政府责任存在的现实问题进行深入分析,揭示其问题主要表现为:责任主体边界模糊、责任分布以“行政”为主导、责任履行中“越位”与“缺位”并存、责任种类中重直接投入轻间接引导.最后,提出水环境治理中的政府责任应该在坚持财权与事权统一、政府主导与责任分担统一、制度设计、监管与实施合理分离、政府引导与社会参与相结合的原则基础上,按照分类、分项、分级来构建转型期水环境治理中政府的应然责任框架体系.     

暴雨泥石流暴发的准周期性探讨

泥石流是山区的主要灾害类型，其发生条件和暴发规律尚在探索之中，泥石流过程本质上并不是纯随机事件，地形坡度，暴雨强度和风化岩土物质积累的组合决定了泥石流的规模，人们推测其暴发具有周期性，但并没有得到直接的证据。作者从山坡松散物质积累条件和泥石流暴发的概率分布出发，在考虑其发生规模的前提下，论证了泥石流暴发风险具有周期性，并且给出了其风险度及暴大风险重现期的估算公式，理论研究和调查结果表明，泥石流间隔期越长，其发长的规模将越大，这在制定山区防灾对策中应该特别注意。     

Influence of organic loading on an anaerobic sequencing biofilm batch reactor (ASBBR) as a function of cycle period and wastewater concentration

The effect of organic loading on the performance of a mechanically stirred anaerobic sequencing biofilm batch reactor (ASBBR) has been investigated, by varying influent concentration and cycle period. For microbial immobilization 1-cm polyurethane foam cubes were used. An agitation rate of 500 rpm and temperature of 30+/-2 degrees C were employed. Organic loading rates (OLR) of 1.5-6.0gCODl(-1)d(-1) were applied to the 6.3-l reactor treating 2.0 l synthetic wastewater in 8 and 12-h batches and at concentrations of 500-2000mgCODl(-1), making it possible to analyze the effect of these two operation variables for the same organic loading range. Microbial immobilization on inert support maintained approximately 60 gTVS in the reactor. Filtered sample organic COD removal efficiencies ranged from 73 to 88% for organic loading up to 5.4gCODl(-1)d(-1). For higher organic loading (influent concentration of 2000mgCODl(-1) and 8-h cycle) the system presented total volatile acids accumulation, which reduced organics removal efficiency down to 55%. In this way, ASBBR with immobilized biomass was shown to be efficient for organic removal at organic loading rates of up to 5.4gCODl(-1)d(-1) and to be more stable to organic loading variations for 12-h cycles. This reactor might be an alternative to intermittent systems as it possesses greater operational flexibility. It might also be an alternative to batch systems suspended with microorganisms since it eliminates both the uncertainties regarding granulation and the time necessary for biomass sedimentation, hence reducing the total cycle period.     

Critical considerations for future action during the second commitment period: A small islands' perspective

If the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to be achieved, Parties must commit themselves to meeting meaningful long‐term targets that, based on current knowledge, would minimize the possibility of irreversible climate change. Current indications are that a global mean temperature rise in excess of 2–3 °C would enhance the risk of destabilizing the climate system as we know it, and possibly lead to catastrophic change such as a shutdown of the deep ocean circulation, and the disintegration of the West Arctic Ice Sheet. Observations have shown that for many small island developing States (SIDS), life‐sustaining ecosystems such as coral reefs, already living near the limit of thermal tolerance, are highly climate‐sensitive, and can suffer severe damage from exposure to sea temperatures as low as 1 °C above the seasonal maximum. Other natural systems (e.g., mangroves) are similarly susceptible to relatively low temperature increases, coupled with small increments of sea level rise. Economic and social sectors, including agriculture and human health, face similar challenges from the likely impacts of projected climate change. In light of known thresholds, this paper presents the view that SIDS should seek support for a temperature cap not exceeding 1.5–2.0 °C above the pre‐industrial mean. It is argued that a less stringent post‐Kyoto target would frustrate achievement of the UNFCCC objective. The view is expressed that all countries which emit significant amounts of greenhouse gases should commit to binding reduction targets in the second commitment period, but that targets for developing countries should be less stringent than those agreed for developed countries. Such an arrangement would be faithful to the principles of equity and would ensure that the right of Parties to attain developed country status would not be abrogated.     

2014年春节期间北京市空气质量分析

对2014年1月30日(除夕)13时到1月31日(初一)12时期间北京市官园、怀柔和良乡监测站的CO、SO2、NOx、PM10、PM2.5浓度及PM2.5化学组分和能见度等监测数据进行分析,探讨了污染源减排和烟花爆竹燃放对北京市空气质量的叠加影响.研究发现,烟花爆竹的集中燃放会在短时间内造成严重的大气污染,其中,对PM10、PM2.5和SO2的影响最为显著.官园、怀柔和良乡监测站在1月31日凌晨1时的PM10浓度值分别为377.8、253.2和627.0μg·m-3,分别为1、2月份平均值的2.4、2.0和3.6倍;PM2.5浓度值分别为292.0、184.7和522.4μg·m-3,分别为1、2月份平均值的2.1、1.5和3.2倍.烟花爆竹的燃放对PM2.5化学组分中的K+、SO2-4、Cl-、Mg2+和Na+等影响最大,1月31日凌晨1时这5种离子在PM2.5浓度中占的比例高达92.1%.烟花爆竹的燃放造成1月31日凌晨1时监测中心和良乡的能见度分别降至2422 m和3591 m,是1、2月份能见度均值的22.9%和32.8%.2010—2014年"春节半月"期间官园、怀柔和良乡PM10平均浓度大多低于冬季均值和年均值,2014年"春节半月"这3个监测站的PM2.5浓度相比于冬季均值分别下降了33.3%、20.6%和39.2%,表明污染源减排对空气质量的正影响非常明显.     

秸秆沼气综合利用项目运营期的环境影响评价研究

根据环境影响评价的方法和导则,分析了秸秆沼气综合利用项目运营期对环境产生的不良影响,预测和评价了运营期的大气、废水和噪声污染.结果表明,运营期排放的废水可以满足《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》(GB 18918-2002)一级A标准;烟(粉)尘、SO2是大气污染物的主要成分,项目高噪设备在厂界四周的噪声叠加值满足噪声排放标准.同时提出了相应的环保措施,总结了此类项目环境影响评价的特点.     

苏州市连续重污染过程中可溶性离子组分分析研究

文章利用苏州南门空气质量监测站点的可溶性离子组分的数据,结合2013年连续重污染过程细颗粒物中可溶性离子组分.结果表明,重污染过程是在不利气象条件下一次污染过程,从后向轨迹分析,空气团裹挟大量污染物到达苏州,使本地污染和区域污染相互叠加;可溶性离子组分占到细颗粒物组分的一半,可溶性离子又以硫酸盐、硝酸盐和铵盐为主要成分,其中硫酸盐主要来自于二氧化硫的转换.     

模拟条件下菹草生长对水质的影响试验研究

为研究菹草生长对水质的影响,在模拟环境下实验桶内培植处于生长期的菹草并进行跟踪监测,结果表明：在菹草生长试验期内,随着菹草生长的逐渐旺盛,水体的pH值明显上升但后期趋于稳定并有所下降;DO在第10天达到最大值,但水体中DO含量在试验后期随菹草生长趋于成熟呈下降趋势;试验前期菹草对总氮（ TN）的去除效果随着时间的延长而不断增强,试验结束时去除率达到74.03％和73.47％;试验中菹草组对总磷（ TP）的去除率在第30天时为69.57％和73.33％。菹草生长能有效降低水中N和P含量,且两者明显低于对照组。