水价改革与生态补偿

论述了生态补偿纳入水价改革的原因和必要性，分析了生态补偿对水价改革和完善的意义、价值和作用以及生态补偿纳入水价改革的策略、方式与途径，提出了建立补偿-融资一体化生态补偿的规划设计和具体操作。     

A NEW APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING IRRIGATION CONVEYANCE LOSSES AND THEIR ECONOMIC EVALUATION1

ABSTRACT: In this paper a new methodology for estimating conveyance efficiency within irrigation systems is presented. Based on statistical analysis of daily water releases from the source of supply and deliveries to the farmers in an irrigation district in Mexico, a linear model is obtained for estimating conveyance efficiency and two component factors. One of these factors points out the relative importance of the operational losses (i.e., losses due to water management), and the second shows the importance of the fixed losses which can be attributed to the average flow through the canal network without variations. In the last part of this paper, an analysis of the expected benefits and costs accruing from system improvement permits derivation of a decision rule which may be used for analyzing the economic feasibility of lining in-place canals.     

DEMAND PROJECTIONS CONSIDERING CONSERVATION1

ABSTRACT: Prediction of future water demands depends on the degree to which conservation effects can be anticipated. A model developed for the Corps of Engineers shows that choosing a numerical conservation target to be achieved is more meaningful and yields more predictable results than price or price elasticity manipulations. The method developed and then applied to the Kaneohe Bay region of Oahu considers the following determinants of demand: geographic distribution of the users, indoor and outdoor requirements, time - by year and month of the year, precipitation, historical unit usage rates, gross and irrigable acreage of land uses, price for water, elasticity of demand with respect to price, source of the water supply (local private supplies vs. agency supplies), and the percentage conservation savings anticipated in each future period in indoor and outdoor uses of water in each of 40 possible land uses. While developed for use in Hawaii, the model is applicable generally.     

CONSERVATION PRACTICES AND ATTITUDES AMONG MARYLAND WATER SUPPLY MANAGERS1

ABSTRACT: In addition to offsetting water supply shortages, water conservation is recognized as serving many purposes, ranging from reduced energy consumption to lower capital costs. Since the discussion of these benefits has been a recent development and has generally excluded local water supply managers, a question arises as to whether supply managers are implementing conservation programs to exploit these benefits. A survey of the managers at 35 Maryland water utilities provides insight into the prevailing attitude toward conservation in a water rich eastern state. The results indicate that most managers continue to view conservation only as a short term response to temporary supply shortages. Only 12 Maryland utilities have undertaken any form of water conservation activity and just two systems have ongoing, comprehensive conservation programs. Institutional, perceptual, economic, political, and time constraints all contribute to the managers’attitudes and general inaction. If water conservation is to be widely practiced, these issues must be addressed and the benefits attributed to conservation must be better documented and articulated to supply managers.     

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF WATER REALLOCATIONS ON AGRICULTURE IN IDAHO1

ABSTRACT: Economics is concerned with the allocation of resources between alternative uses. Traditionally, in the western United States, water resources have been committed to agriculture and irrigation. Other competitive uses such as power, industry, and recreation are challenging this allocation. What are the impacts of shifting water out of agriculture into other uses, is a question that needs to be given consideration. Ilia paper attempts to evaluate the tradeoff between using farm land for either irrigated or dryland production and the resulting impacts on gross farm income and the average price of land. Baaed on historical data, reducing irrigated acreage and increasing dryland acreage could greatly reduce both farm income and the equity in farming. The model presented in this paper should be useful for evaluating the tradeoffs between dryland and irrigated land use, especially when there are gat differences in productivity such as those that exist in the inter-mountain region of the Western United States.     

Charging versus exclusion: Choice between recreation management tools

Overuse of recreation sites seems to justify regulation, and the principal tools for this are fee charging or physical exclusion. Both seem equally costly to administer. Both involve equal costs to consumers if recreationists visit from one origin, but if they come from different origins, costs may be greater and consumers' surplus less under either tool, depending on the shape of the demand curve. Which is the more equitable tool depends on the relative representation of rich and poor participants from near and distant origins. Potentially beneficial use of site revenues is an advantage of charging. Neither availability of substitutes nor variation in daily demand seems likely to change these results substantially, but a system of booking admissions before the trip outset might neutralize the advantages of charging. The optimal level of use varies with the regulatory tool chosen. The optimal admissions under exclusion could be fewer than or more than under charging, or may even be equal to unregulated use.     

A MONTHLY TIME SERIES MODEL OF MUNICIPAL WATER DEMAND1

A multivariate time series model is formulated to study monthly variations in municipal water demand. The left hand side variable in the multivariate regression model is municipal water demand (gallons per connection per day) and the right hand side contains (explanatory) variables which include price (constant dollars), average temperature, total precipitation, and percentage of daylight hours. The application of the regression model to Salt Lake City Water Department data produced a high multiple correlation coefficient and F-statistic. The regression coefficients for the right hand side variables all have the appropriate sign. In an ex post forecast, the model accurately predicts monthly variations in municipal water demand. The proposed monthly multivariate model is not only found useful for forecasting water demand, but also useful for predicting and studying the impact of nonstructural management decisions such as the effect of price changes, peak load pricing methods, and other water conservation programs.     

基于模糊数学的排污权交易基准价测算模型及其应用

为了解决排污权交易基准价的制定这一排污权交易制度设计的关键问题,在对影响排污权价值的因素进行理论分析的基础上,利用模糊数学理论建立了包含人均国民生产总值、环境容量、污染物排放绩效3个影响因素的排污权价值模糊数学评价模型,结合污染物削减成本构建了排污权交易基准价测算模型.利用该套模型,建立了重庆市COD和氨氮排污权价值评价体系,计算得到重庆市人均国民生产总值、污染物环境排放量、工业污染物排放绩效等影响因素对排污权价值的权重分别为0.540、0.163和0.297,COD和氨氮排污权价值的模糊综合评价结果向量分别为（0,0.715,0.285,0,0）和（0,0.865,0.135,0,0）;根据重庆市废水COD和氨氮削减成本,测算了重庆市废水COD和氨氮的排污权交易基准价格分别为5 900和16 000元/t,处于全国排污权交易试点省市确定的基准价的中上水平.该套模型将排污权基准价测算过程中具有模糊性、不确定性的影响因素进行了定量表达,使测算结果更符合客观实际,并且具有实用价值,但在排污权价值影响因素的筛选及其量化等方面有待进一步研究.      

中国与东盟水产品资源贸易价格波动——以冻鲭鱼出口价格为例

东盟是我国第三大水产品出口地,掌握对东盟水产品出口价格波动规律,以预测未来水产品出口价格波动趋势,为拓展水产品贸易潜力、有效进行渔业资源配置、促进水产品信息体系的建立提供依据和支撑。冻鲭鱼是我国重要的水产品出口品种,而东盟又是我国冻鲭鱼的最大出口地。以冻鲭鱼为例,利用2012—2017年我国对东盟以及东盟主要国家冻鲭鱼出口的月度价格数据,采用ARCH族模型和H-P滤波法研究其出口价格的聚簇性、非对称性和构成价格波动的四种因素。结果表明：（1）冻鲭鱼出口价格具有聚簇性,可以进行价格预测,市场价格上涨或下跌对其影响力基本相同;（2）价格呈现明显的季节性波动和周期性,可分为3或4个周期,2014—2015年之前的价格波动幅度大于之后期间内的波动幅度;（3）价格波动由四种因素构成,各因素对冻鲭鱼出口价格波动的贡献率差别较大。     

济南市城区水资源价值模糊综合评价

水资源具有价值和价格，价格杠杆是解决水问题的重要手段。以济南市城区为例，分析了影响水资源价值的主要因素，运用模糊数学方法对水资源价值进行了评价，并计算出了济南市城区的水资源价值。