Active Adaptive Management for Conservation

Abstract:  Active adaptive management balances the requirements of management with the need to learn about the system being managed, which leads to better decisions. It is difficult to judge the benefit of management actions that accelerate information gain, relative to the benefit of making the best management decision given what is known at the time. We present a first step in developing methods to optimize management decisions that incorporate both uncertainty and learning via adaptive management. We assumed a manager can allocate effort to discrete units (e.g., areas for revegetation or animals for reintroduction), the outcome can be measured as success or failure (e.g., the revegetation in an area is successful or the animal survives and breeds), and the manager has two possible management options from which to choose. We further assumed that there is an annual budget that may be allocated to one or both of the two options and that the manager must decide on the allocation. We used Bayesian updating of the probability of success of the two options and stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal strategy over a specified number of years. The costs, level of certainty about the success of the two options, and the timeframe of management all influenced the optimal allocation of the annual budget. In addition, the choice of management objective had a large influence on the optimal decision. In a case study of Merri Creek, Melbourne, Australia, we applied the approach to determining revegetation strategies. Our approach can be used to determine how best to manage ecological systems in the face of uncertainty.     

ECONOMIC AND WATER QUALITY EFFECTS OF VARIABLE AND UNIFORM APPLICATION OF NITROGEN1

ABSTRACT: Nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates for achieving optimum crop yields often vary within a field due to spatial variability in soil moisture and nitrogen content and other crop growth factors. When there is substantial within-field variability in these factors, uniform application of N (UAN) may not be economically efficient in terms of maximizing net return because N is likely to be over-applied in some areas and under-applied in other areas of the field. In addition, over-application can adversely affect water quality. A sample of fields in a Midwestern agricultural watershed is used to test for statistically significant differences in N application rates, crop yields, surface and ground water quality and net returns between UAN and variable application of N (VAN) for four cropping systems. Profitability and water quality benefits of VAN are sensitive to the distribution of soil types within a field. Water quality effects and profitability of UAN and VAN vary with cropping systems. VAN is not uniformly superior to UAN in terms of increasing net returns and improving water quality for the farming systems and watershed evaluated in this study.     

COMPARING SAMPLING SCHEMES FOR MONITORING POLLUTANT EXPORT FROM A DAIRY PASTURE1

ABSTRACT: Dairy cow pastures and feeding areas around barns can be a significant source of nonpoint source pollutants to nearby streams. To help document the significance of these sources, nutrient export in streamfiow from a 56.7-ha, mostly agricultural, watershed located in southwestern North Carolina was monitored from August 1994 to January 1996. Total nitrogen and phosphorus export rates from the upper, predominantly pasture, part of the watershed were 18.0 and 1.4 kg/ha/yr, respectively, as measured by weekly grab sampling and 18.7 and 4.9 kg/halyr, respectively, as measured from storm event monitoring. Nitrogen and phosphorus export rates for the area between the monitoring sites, which included overgrazed cow holding and feeding areas and farm buildings, were 376 and 86 kgfhalyr, respectively, for grab sampling and 351 and 160 kg/ha/yr, respectively, for storm event monitoring. To estimate the amount of reduction from nonpoint source controls necessary to effect a significant reduction in pollutant loading, statistical analyses of the load data were conducted. The analyses for the five pollutants monitored showed that total suspended solids would require the greatest reduction (34.6 percent for weekly grab and 33.6 percent for storm) in loading after the implementation of controls for statistical significance. Nitrate plus nitrite was found to require the least reduction (12.6 percent for weekly grab). Pollutant export rates computed from weekly grab samples and storm event samples used separately were compared to corresponding export rates computed from combining grab and storm event samples to assess the differences in monitoring schemes.     

NONLINEAR MODELING AND PREDICTION OF A RIVER FLOW SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: Model estimation and prediction of a river flow system are investigated using nonlinear system identification techniques. We demonstrate how the dynamics of the system, rainfall, and river flow can be modeled using NARMAX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenuous input) models. The parameters of the model are estimated using an orthogonal least squares algorithm with intelligent structure detection. The identification of the nonlinear model is described to represent the relationship between local rainfall and river flow at Enoree station (inputs) and river flow at Whitmire (output) for a river flow system in South Carolina.     

污水处理工艺系统优化设计理论的研究与发展

综述了污水处理工艺系统优化设计理论研究的发展历史 ,分析总结了优化设计模型研究的发展规律以及需要解决的关键性问题 ;详细介绍了几个具有典型代表性的非线性系统优化模型的结构及寻优方法 ;从 6个特征方面横向比较了部分优化数学模型的研究成果 ;结合国内研究动态提出了对该领域研究前景的展望     

中国环境科学专题文献研究

本文运用文献计量学方法,对我国环境科学10种主要期刊(1989～1991)年间总计刊载的2584篇文献所著录的全部引文及文献著者进行一次统计调查与分析研究,从中寻找出我国环境科学研究文献引文的一般规律和我国环境科学科研作者队伍的构成及分布现状。     

有机物对SAD的影响及其数学模拟

通过血清瓶批式实验,研究了不同C/N下葡萄糖和乙酸钠对厌氧氨氧化耦合反硝化系统（SAD）污泥活性及脱氮性能的影响.耦合系统颗粒污泥为在亚硝态氮充足的UASB连续流反应器中培养得到,具有较高的厌氧氨氧化活性和反硝化活性.以葡萄糖为碳源,C/N分别为1,2,4时,厌氧氨氧化活性差异不大,反硝化活性逐渐增加,亚硝态氮最大降解速率分别为0.265,0.345,0.453kgN/（kgVSS·d）;以乙酸钠为碳源,C/N分别为1、2、4时,厌氧氨氧化活性和反硝化活性都无明显差别.相同C/N下,耦合系统以葡萄糖为碳源时的厌氧氨氧化活性较高,以乙酸钠为碳源时的反硝化活性较高.C/N分别为1,2,4时,以葡萄糖为有机物的氨氮最大降解速率分别为乙酸钠的1.15,1.19,1.58倍,以乙酸钠为有机物时反应的亚硝态氮最大降解速率分别为葡萄糖的1.89,1.48,1.15倍.实验的数学模拟结果表明,通过模型的模拟,能较为准确地预测实验过程中氮素的变化趋势,在C/N为1~4时耦合系统中颗粒污泥的厌氧氨氧化活性无较大变化.     

2017年5-6月国内环境事件

简要统计了2017年5-6月国内发生的各种环境事件142起,包括沙尘天气12起,污染事件16起,地震44起,山体滑坡和泥石流16起,以及其他自然灾害54起.     

广西发展燃料乙醇产业总体方案替代方案优选

规划环评的目的不是减小规划对环境的影响,而是通过比较,选出规划对环境影响最小的替代方案。本文运用AHP-模糊数学法,结合广西发展燃料乙醇产业总体方案,从大气环境、水环境、废弃物、资源承载力、资源能源消耗和生态环境保护等六个方面,合理选取指标,建立了方案布局合理性指标体系,并用AHP-模糊数学法对四种替代方案进行了计算,得出方案一的结果为77．44,方案二的结果为78．62,方案三的结果为78．23,方案四的结果为82．13。方案四为“零作为”方案,计算结果为环境本底参照值。论文以方案四为参照,同时结合各方案的隶属度,选出了最佳替代方案。     

模拟酸雨条件下垃圾填埋的重金属地球化学迁移模型——以徐州为例

为研究酸雨沉降条件下垃圾中重金属迁移过程,以重金属浓度变化为基础,建立了生物反应器填埋场重金属浸出和淋出的地球化学迁移过程模型和地球化学迁移的数学预测模型。研究表明,重金属的浸出顺序为As、Ni、Cr、Co、Cd、Mn、Cu、Zn、Sn、Hg、Pb、Fe,淋出顺序为Mn、Co、Ni、Cr、Cu、Cd、As、Fe、Zn、Hg、Pb、Sn;对生活垃圾重金属浸出所建立的数学模型大多为指数函数、幂函数、二次函数,对模拟酸雨条件下的生物反应器填埋场重金属的淋出建立的数学模型大多为二次函数、幂函数,数学模型的相关系数在0.9以上,模型拟合效果较为理想;通过引进重金属元素释放系数建立了生物反应器填埋场重金属淋出累积总量的模型,修正后的模型的计算结果和实测值的误差在千分之一以内,可用于预测填埋场内重金属溶出总量。