统计学在垃圾焚烧飞灰浸提液重金属检测准确性研究中的应用

为提高复杂基体重金属检测准确性,在使用电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法检测生活垃圾焚烧飞灰浸提液时,进行标准曲线法、标准加入法和内标法3种定量校准方法比对。3种方法报出结果经过加标回收率换算后的样品原值具有明显一致性,使用统计学方差齐性和单因素方差分析验证了该一致性成立,表明内标法的精密度和准确度与标准曲线法、标准加入法无显著性差别。以3种方法样品原值的算数平均值作为样品最佳估计值评价各方法实际报出结果准确性,标准加入法准确性最好;稀释后的样品内标法加标回收率明显优于标准规定,受稀释倍数影响不大,工作效率高,满足HJ 781—2016质控要求,建议可作为该标准的补充;建议批量样品检测时优先采用内标法。3种方法样品原值一致性的验证,有助于执法、科研中对于复杂基体重金属物质含量的准确判断。     

Best linear unbiased estimators for the simple linear regression model using ranked set sampling

When sample observations are expensive or difficult to obtain, ranked set sampling is known to be an efficient method for estimating the population mean, and in particular to improve on the sample mean estimator. Using best linear unbiased estimators, this paper considers the simple linear regression model with replicated observations. Use of a form of ranked set sampling is shown to be markedly more efficient for normal data when compared with the traditional simple linear regression estimators.     

越流含水层系统地下水有毒元素污染数值模拟——以太原盆地地下水汞污染为例

提出了一个越流含水层系统考虑弱透水层吸附作用的地下水污染数学模型,模型应用于太原地地下水中汞污染的数值模拟,水位拟合误差为０．４０７－０．５０ｍ,汞离子浓度拟事误差小于４％－５％,表明模型可靠,合理,为定量预测越流含水层系统地下水污染提供了科学手段。     

PRECIPITATION DIFFERENCES AMONGST GCMs USED FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Two general circulation models (GCMs) used in the U.S. national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change (CGCM1 and HadCM2) show a large increase in precipitation in the future over the southwestern U.S., particularly during winter. This precipitation increase is an extension of a larger region of increased precipitation in the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of North America that is associated with a deepened and southward-shifted Aleutian Low, a weaker subtropical high, and warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The models differ in their simulation of precipitation anomalies over the southeastern U.S., with CGCM1 showing drier conditions and HadCM2 showing wetter conditions in the future. While both models show decreased frequency of Atlantic storms, consistent with decreased meridional and land/sea temperature gradients, the more coastal position of the storm track in CGCM1 results in less precipitation than modern along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. During summer, differences in land surface models within the two GCMs sometimes lead to differences in soil moisture that feed back to the precipitation over land due to available moisture.     

建立基于EGSS 的中国环保产业统计框架的思路

欧盟统计署制定的环境货物和服务部门(environmental goods and services sector,EGSS)统计框架是目前国际认可的专门用于环保产业统计的框架体系,具有全面性、多维性和一致性等特点。本文分析了目前中国环保产业统计概况,初步比较了通过公开的常规统计数据收集EGSS数据和环保产业调查收集EGSS数据的可行性,提出实施"分阶段渐进式"策略逐步引入EGSS统计框架较为可行。     

山西省排污权交易体系改进设计

本文在山西省排污权交易工作现有交易机制、政策设计与实践成果的基础上,分析现有排污权交易实施过程中存在的主要问题,并结合"十三五"时期国家对排污权交易工作的总体要求,提出山西省排污交易体系的改进设计建议。通过改进排污权初始分配方式和排污权交易模式,制定活跃排污权交易市场的相关政策,强化市场与政府的对接,探索山西省地方立法,扩展山西省排污权交易管理平台等,逐步完善交易制度建设、监管体系建设、信息统计体系建设,深化排污权交易支持下的山西省总量减排及环境监管能力建设,构建管理规范、交易顺畅的排污指标交易市场,支持排污权交易工作在山西省的全面推广与实施。     

Estimation of Catchment Nutrient Loads in New Zealand Using Monthly Water Quality Monitoring Data

Causes of variation between loads estimated using alternative calculation methods and their repeatability were investigated using 20 years of daily flow and monthly concentration samples for 77 rivers in New Zealand. Loads of dissolved and total nitrogen and phosphorus were calculated using the Ratio, L5, and L7 methods. Estimates of loads and their precision associated with short‐term records of 5, 10, and 15 years were simulated by subsampling. The representativeness of the short‐term loads was quantified as the standard deviation of the 20 realizations. The L7 method generally produced more realistic loads with the highest precision and representativeness. Differences between load estimates were shown to be associated with poor agreement between the data and the underlying model. The best method was shown to depend on the match between the model and functional and distributional characteristics of the data, rather than on the contaminant. Short‐term load estimates poorly represented the long‐term load estimate, and deviations frequently exceeded estimated imprecision. The results highlight there is no single preferred load calculation method, the inadvisability of “unsupervised” load estimation and the importance of inspecting concentration‐flow, unit load‐flow plots and regression residuals. Regulatory authorities should be aware that the precision of loads estimated from monthly data are likely to be “optimistic” with respect to the actual repeatability of load estimates.     

加强环境统计工作的若干思考

分析了中国石油天然气集团公司环境统计工作管理现状,从指标体系、指标关注点等方面与国际大石油公司对比,并结合其自身发展历程、现状及特点,指出了中国石油天然气集团公司环境统计管理工作中存在的主要问题,对此进行了阐述,并据此提出了加强中国石油天然气集团公司环境统计管理工作的若干建议。     

Analyzing maps of dispersal around a single focus

The spatial pattern of organisms may be used to characterize their dispersal, quantify spread or estimate the point of introduction of an alien species. Their distribution may be represented by maps of individuals, or by counts or by presence/absence at known positions within a sampled area. The problems and relative merits of these different forms of data for spatial inference are discussed. Three datasets concerning dispersal from a single focus are analyzed: counts of aphids, Rhopalosiphum padi and Sitobion avenae, on barley plants, Hordeum vulgare, grown in experi- mental trays; mapped locations of couch grass, Elymus repens, tillers within plots of a field experiment; locations of sightings of the lupin aphid, Macrosiphum albifrons, as it invaded Great Britain between 1981 and 1984. A method for generating maps from counts is proposed to overcome problems caused by recording imprecision. Several statistics are used to quantify dispersal and spatial pattern in the experimental data and together provide a clear picture of the spatial pattern observed; they enabled several effects of the experimental treatments to be identified. The value of the statistics are compared. Estimates of the source of the lupin aphid invasion are obtained using the backtracking methods of Perry (1995b) and do not contradict previous suggestions.     

滨海地带地下水面与咸淡水界面伴随着潮汐波动而变化的规律的探讨研究(Ⅰ)二维数值仿真数学模型的建立及其效度的验证

在研究海岸带广泛存在的凸凹不平的不透水层的几何及地质特性的基础上,结合地下水渗流运动的特征,运用数理分析的手法,建立了不同于以往的模拟海岸带含水层咸淡水界面变动规律的二维数值仿真数学模型.其后,通过与实验数据的对比验证了其效度.