汕头港水域潮流运动的三维数值模拟

本文建立了汕头港水域的三维潮流数学模型，并采用交错网格（Ａｒａｋａｗａｃ）的差分方法求解，实际运用表明，该模型计算程序简单，计算结果合理，精度较好，模拟结果能较好地揭示计算区域内的潮流结构特征。     

简化活性污泥数学模型的优化

为了从控制运行的角度促进简化数学模型的应用，必须借助其它优化手段进一步提高预测精度。本文主要介绍了应用于简化数学模型的扩展卡尔曼滤波、神经网络和误差反馈系统三种优化方法以及优化后的验证结果。从验证结果来看，优化的ROM模型与ASMl模型的定性变化行为相似，基于神经网络的复合模型对PO4^3-和NOx^-的预测结果非常准确，误差反馈的优化系统模拟性能良好。     

危险废物在填埋场中的浸出规律模拟实验方法研究

应用数学模型对危险物质的非饱水浸出机理进行了分析，并建立了小柱非饱和水模拟浸出实验系统，对危险废物在填埋场中的浸出规律进行了研究，结果表明，小柱模拟实验能较真实地反映实际填埋场中危险组中填埋场中的迁移和浸出规律，该系统的建立为我国危险废物填埋场的设计、施工及埋场的安全评价具有指导意义。     

溶质运移的空间信息统计组合分析

空间信息统计分析理论与方法能够将空间结构性和随机性有机地结合起来,应用变异函数理论模型、方向综合变异指标以及各种空间最优估计方法,对地下水环境评价参数空间分布的不确定性评价方面,较经典统计方法更为合理。     

长江水系河流沉积物重金属元素含量的计算方法研究

采用长江水系约２６０个背景样点沉积物原样和小于６３μｍ细粒沉积物中１１种重金属元素（铜、铅、锌、镉、汞、钴、镍、砷、铬、锰和铁）含量的数据，研究了数据的频率分布特征和变异系数，比较了算术均值、几何均值和中位数与由Ｂｏｘ－Ｃｏｘ变换而得到的对称均值间的大小关系，结果表明，大多数重金属元素含量服从对数正态分布；采用算术均值表示均值会有较大的偏差，且这种偏差随变异系数的增大而增大；采用中位数偏差较小，但     

Restoring habitat corridors in fragmented landscapes using optimization and percolation models

Landscape fragmentation and habitat loss are significant threats to the conservation of biological diversity. Creating and restoring corridors between isolated habitat patches can help mitigate or reverse the impacts of fragmentation. It is important that restoration and protection efforts be undertaken in the most efficient and effective way possible because conservation budgets are often severely limited. We address the question of where restoration should take place to efficiently reconnect habitat with a landscape-spanning corridor. Building upon findings in percolation theory, we develop a shortest-path optimization methodology for assessing the minimum amount of restoration needed to establish such corridors. This methodology is applied to large numbers of simulated fragmented landscapes to generate mean and variance statistics for the amount of restoration needed. The results provide new information about the expected level of resources needed to realize different corridor configurations under different degrees of fragmentation and different characterizations of habitat connectivity (“neighbor rules”). These results are expected to be of interest to conservation planners and managers in the allocation of conservation resources to restoration projects.     

Patchy Distribution Fields: An Interleaved Survey Design and Reconstruction Adequacy

A mathematical model was used to compare the effects of a regular (one-pass) or interleaved (two-pass) acoustic survey on the adequacy of reconstructing patchy distribution fields. The model simulates fish or plankton patches of different shapes and spatial orientations, and a set of parallel or zigzag transects forming a regular or interleaved acoustic survey. The efficiency of a survey is determined by the adequacy of a reconstructed field to that originally generated, which is evaluated by calculating their correlations. Regarding the immovable fields, the efficiency of a regular or interleaved acoustic survey was tested with the following two alternative assumptions: (1) the entire survey was completed; (2) the survey was interrupted for some reason at the moment when one transect remained non-accomplished. In the former case, the efficiencies of both acoustic surveys were nearly the same; in the latter case, the efficiency of an interleaved survey was superior to that of a regular one. With respect to movable fields, the efficiency of the completed interleaved surveys was even higher than that of the regular ones. Thus, the results obtained allow us to conclude that an interleaved survey is expedient in cases where there is no preference regarding the position of a vessel for further work.     

Stream Temperature Modeling Using Functional Regression Models

Stream temperature is one of the most important environmental variables in lotic habitats as it has important and direct impacts on the ecosystem. Given the continuous nature of this variable, the aim of this paper was to introduce functional regression for the air‐stream temperature relation, being capable to model an entire seasonal or annual curve of temperatures as one entity, rather than multiple daily or weekly values in classical models. Three types of functional models were explored in the study and compared to two classical models (Generalized Additive Model and Logistic Model) for six rivers from the United States The results show the functional models have the best performance for all the considered rivers. When comparing functional models between them, one variant of the historical functional model performs better than the two other models and is the most parsimonious. Functional regression leads to encouraging results to model the complete annual stream temperature curve as one entity compared to other classical approaches.     

A Parallel Computation Tool to Enable Dynamic Sensitivity and Model Performance Analysis of APEX: Evapotranspiration Modeling

Global sensitivity analysis can be used for assessing the relative importance of model parameters on model outputs. The sensitivity of parameters usually indicates a temporal variation due to variation in the environmental conditions (e.g., variation in weather or plant growth). In addition, the size of averaging window by which the outputs of a model are aggregated or averaged may impact parameter sensitivities. In this study, temporal variation of parameters sensitives, model performance, as well as the impact of the size of time‐averaging window on evapotranspiration (ET) prediction using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model are investigated. To achieve these goals, an open‐source package named PARAPEX was developed in R and used to perform dynamic sensitivity and model performance analysis of APEX using parallel computation. PARAPEX reduced the computation time from 5,939 to 379 s (using 20 and 1 computation nodes, respectively). The sensitivity analysis results indicated the parameters accounting for the reducing effect of plant cover on evaporation from the soil surface, the effect of soil on the plant root growth, and the effect of cycling and transformation dynamics of organic matter at the top soil layer as the top sensitive parameters based on the mean daily simulated ET and the Nash–Sutcliffe model performance measure. The dynamic performance analysis indicated poor ET predictions by APEX during the growing seasons. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

适应城市消防规划需求的火灾风险评估研究

研究城市火灾风险评估,可以为城市消防规划提供有效参考,对推进城市防灾减灾工程具有重要意义。面向所要研究区域的城市消防规划需求,首先分析区域火灾历史统计数据,提炼区域的火灾特点,从火灾危险性、承灾体易损性、城市抗灾能力3方面分析指标影响因子,建立了城市火灾风险评估指标体系;其次,提出了以建设用地地块为评估单元,基于现场调研和卫星遥感影像、城市用地分类相结合的指标因子快速分析方法,并通过加权平均评估城市火灾风险;最后,通过城市火灾风险评估案例研究,阐释了评估的技术流程和结果形式。研究结果表明:适应城市消防规划需求的火灾风险评估方法可以快速定量评估区域火灾风险的空间分布特征,还能识别出消防安全布局的重点地区,进一步支撑城市消防规划编制。