An integrated model for vent area design of hydrocarbon-air mixture explosion inside cubic enclosures with obstacles

This study aims to develop an integrated model - NFPA-68-BRANN model, which can be used to calculate the vent areas of cubic enclosures with obstacles. Seven experiments regarding vented explosion inside the obstructed enclosure are reviewed and applied to check the accuracy of two existing standards, i.e. the NFPA-68 2018 and the BS EN 14994:2007. Accordingly, the parameters to describe the flame development in the NFPA-68 2018 are amended by adopting the Bauwens model. Bayesian Regularization Artificial Neuron Network (BRANN) model presenting the non-linear relationship between the turbulent flame enhancement factor X and its affecting factors is subsequently developed. Eventually, the NFPA-68-BRANN model is generated by incorporating the BRANN model into the modified NFAP-68 2018. The accuracy of the NFPA-68-BRANN model is validated by using a series of the New Baker Test data.     

2014年我国煤矿事故统计与规律分析

为了更深入地研究我国煤矿事故的一般性规律,基于2014年我国煤矿事故数据,采用数理统计的方法对煤矿百万t死亡率、事故区域、类型、月份、时间段、诱因6个维度进行了研究.结果表明:湖南省、重庆市煤矿事故发生频率较高,贵州省瓦斯事故发生频率较高;瓦斯事故、顶板事故是导致人员伤亡的主要事故类型,瓦斯爆炸是煤矿瓦斯事故的主要类型;8月煤矿事故情况较为严重;10:00-11:59是煤矿事故频发时间;违章作业是导致煤矿事故发生的主要诱因.同时,针对煤矿事故发生规律提出了相应的对策措施.     

基于逻辑树和贝叶斯网络的海洋平台火灾概率分析

火灾概率分析是海洋平台火灾定量风险评估的重要组成部分,考虑到传统事故树和事件树方法存在一定的局限性,提出了基于逻辑树和贝叶斯网络的火灾概率分析模型。首先采用数理统计方法对墨西哥湾地区2 837起火灾事故进行统计分析,依据事故情况构建逻辑树,然后将逻辑树转化为贝叶斯网络,根据历史数据确定贝叶斯网络各节点的先验概率和条件概率。结果表明:海洋平台火灾事故是设备、人因和组织管理多因素耦合作用的结果;基于贝叶斯网络模型得到海洋平台火灾概率约为1.0×10~(-5),为海洋平台火灾定量风险评估提供了基础数据;由贝叶斯网络模型分析得出,人因操作失误与缺乏作业安全分析的后验概率分别达到0.471和0.119,表明人因组织因素对海洋平台火灾事故具有重要影响。     

The multiphase optimization strategy (MOST) and the sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (SMART): two novel evaluation methods for developing optimal training programs

Current methodologies in training evaluation studies largely employ a single method entitled random confirmatory trials, prompting several concerns. First, practitioners and researchers often analyze the effectiveness of their entire omnibus training, rather than the individual elements or identifiable components of the training program. This slows the testing of theory and development of optimal training programs. Second, a common training is typically administered to all employees within an organization or workgroup; however, certain factors may cause individualized training to be more effective. Given these concerns, the current paper presents two training evaluation methodologies to overcome these problems: the multiphase optimization strategy and sequential multiple assignment randomized trials. The multiphase optimization strategy is a method to evaluate a standard training, which emphasizes the importance of a multi‐stage training evaluation process to analyze individual training elements. In contrast, sequential multiple assignment randomized trial is used to evaluate an adaptive training that varies over time and/or trainees. These methodologies jointly overcome the problems noted earlier, and they can be integrated to address several of the key challenges facing training researchers and practitioners. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of the Extreme Rainfall Event at Nashville,TN and the Surrounding Region on May 1–3, 2010

This paper analyzes the May 1–3, 2010 rainfall event that affected the south‐central United States, including parts of Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky. The storm is evaluated in terms of its synoptic setting, along with the temporal distributions, and spatial patterns of the rainfall. In addition, the recurrence interval of the storm is assessed and the implications for hydrologic structure designs are discussed. The event was associated with an upper‐level trough and stationary frontal boundary to the west of the rainfall region, which remained quasi‐stationary for a period of 48 h. Heavy rainfall was produced by two slow‐moving mesoscale convective complexes, combined with abundant atmospheric moisture. Storm totals exceeding 330 mm occurred within a large elongated area extending from Memphis to Nashville. Isolated rainfall totals over 480 mm were reported in some areas, with NEXRAD weather radar rainfall estimates up to 501 mm. An extreme value analysis was performed for one‐ and two‐day rainfall totals at Nashville and Brownsville, Tennessee, as well as for gridded rainfall estimates for the entire region using the Storm Precipitation Analysis System. Results suggest maximum rainfall totals for some durations during the May 1–3, 2010 event exceeded the 1,000‐year rainfall values from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 for a large portion of the region and reached up to 80% of the probable maximum precipitation values for some area sizes and durations.     

Twin–twin transfusion syndrome: mathematical modelling

Twin–twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) represents a pregnancy complication with a high risk for perinatal mortality and postnatal morbidity. Mathematical models have been utilized to examine the mechanisms of disease and potential treatment modalities. We developed four consecutive models based on pathophysiology mechanisms. Conceptually, these models remained simple, but with increased complexity in details. We present our models tutorially with the necessary equations expressed in words. The aetiology of TTTS was related to AV anastomoses from donor to recipient and their growth commensurate with placental growth. We assessed that natural growth of placenta and foetuses causes the diameter and length of the AV, as well as the AV's pressure gradient, to increase proportional to gestational age. The AV transfusion then increases faster than natural foetal growth. A progressively increasing discordance subsequently develops, not compensated for by foetal growth. A simulation is performed to show how this discordance in blood volumetric development causes successive discordances in other functions, particularly renal, circulatory, and cardio-vascular, resulting in disease progression to the various stages of TTTS. In conclusion, mathematical modelling of TTTS has provided an understanding of the sequence of events that leads to the various presentations of TTTS stages as well as the efficacy of therapies. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ArcGIS支持下的样本稀疏山区空间插值模拟探讨

样本稀疏地区空间插值法对区域化变量的精准管理具有重要意义。基于ArcGIS 90，在分析土壤属性空间分布特征的基础上，提出并构建了基于不同土壤类型的土壤特性空间预测模拟模型，对比了传统方法与改进方法空间插值精度，实现了数值插值在复杂地理环境区域的应用，得到以下结论：(1)基于经度、纬度、海拔高度及坡度等地理因子的土壤基础环境因子的空间预测模拟模型，突破以往只能描述土壤属性在水平方向变化的局限，较客观、合理地反映土壤属性随地理位置及海拔高度的立体变化特征；(2)基于不同土壤类型回归模型来增加样本点以推断评价指标在无取样地区的分布状况的处理方式具有一定的数学理论支撑，有效降低了插值误差，提高了评价精度，使评价结果更加接近现实。     

地下水石油污染高效生物降解研究

考察了高效复合微生物对地下水石油污染物降解效果,并建立了地下水污染质生物降解迁移数学模型.从石油污染的土壤中分离筛选到能够高效降解石油的菌株,经鉴定为假单胞菌属、黄杆菌属和微球菌属,这3种菌属24h对石油降解率分别为62%,56%和52%,且3种菌属组成的复合菌较单一菌属对石油降解率都要高,达85%.高效复合菌与石油配水一起进入模拟地下含水介质的反应器,在反应器前部均能形成一个稳定的生物带.石油配水流经该生物带,石油降解率可达60%以上,反应器出水石油降解率平均可达90%以上.建立的地下水污染质生物降解迁移数学模型对地下水有机污染质生物降解有较好的预测效果,计算值与实测值呈良好的相关性.     

IDENTIFICATION OF CHANGES IN STREAMFLOW CHARACTERISTICS1

ABSTRACT: A set of procedures for identifying changes in selected streamflow characteristics at sites having long‐term continuous streamflow records is illustrated by using streamflow data from the Waccamaw River at Freeland, North Carolina for the 55‐year period of 1940–1994. Data were evaluated and compared to streamflow in the adjacent Lumber River Basin to determine if changes in streamflow characteristics in the Waccamaw River were localized and possibly the result of some human activity, or consistent with regional variations. Following 1963, droughts in the Waccamaw Basin seem to have been less severe than in the Lumber Basin, and the annual one‐, seven‐, and 30‐day low flows exhibited a slightly increasing trend in the Waccamaw River. Mean daily flows in the Waccamaw River at the 90 percent exceedance level (low flows) during 1985–194, a relatively dry period, were very nearly equal to flows at the same exceedance level for 1970–1979, which represents the 10‐year period between 1940 and 1994 with the highest flows. Prior to the 1980s, flows per unit drainage area in the Waccamaw Basin were generally less than those in the Lumber Basin, but after 1980, the opposite was true. The ratio of base flow to runoff in the Waccamaw River may have changed relative to that in the Lumber River in the late 1970s. There was greater variability in Waccamaw River streamflow than in Lumber River flow, and flow variability in the Waccamaw River may have increased slightly during 1985–1994.     

COMPARISON OF PARAMETRIC TAIL ESTIMATORS FOR LOW‐FLOW FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: In recent years, several approaches to hydrologic frequency analysis have been proposed that enable one to direct attention to that portion of an overall probability distribution that is of greatest interest. The majority of the studies have focused on the upper tail of a distribution for flood analyses, though the same ideas can be applied to low flows. This paper presents an evaluation of the performances of five different estimation methods that place an emphasis on fitting the lower tail of the lognormal distribution for estimation of the ten‐year low‐flow quantile. The methods compared include distributional truncation, MLE treatment of censored data, partial probability weighted moments, LL‐moments, and expected moments. It is concluded that while there are some differences among the alternative methods in terms of their biases and root mean square errors, no one method consistently performs better than the others, particularly with recognition that the underlying population distribution is unknown. Therefore, it seems perfectly legitimate to make a selection of a method on the basis other criteria, such as ease of use. It is also shown in this paper that the five alternative methods can perform about as well as, if not better than, an estimation strategy involving fitting the complete lognormal distribution using L‐moments.