面向防洪救灾的人口统计数据空间化研究——以扶余县为例

人口是重要的受灾体,准确的人口空间分布信息是防洪救灾工作的重要依据。将人口统计数据与遥感数据相结合,借助GIS手段来空间化人口统计数据,模拟人口空间分布。着力分析两个问题：①居民点类型、面积、位置的精确获取;②居民点类型、面积与人口数量间的关系。研究中,首先根据地理意义和数学意义,对经典的城市人口-面积异速生长模型进行扩展,推导出城乡人口-面积统一模型。进而以扶余县为例,以15万地形图为辅助数据,建立居民点分类体系,利用ETM影像提取居民点信息,在以上模型的基础上建立人口分布的反演模型,得到基于居民点的人口分布矢量数据。     

上海市民用建筑能耗的估算与分析

建筑能耗是重要的社会能源消耗主体。采用宏观能源统计方法,利用综合能源平衡表估算上海市1999-2009年住宅能耗和公共建筑运行能耗的变化及其特征。结果表明,上海市民用建筑总能耗由1999年的687.82万tce增加到2009年的1 774.91万tce,平均年增长率为4.68%;住宅建筑能耗呈上升趋势,而单位面积能耗逐年下降,单位面积住宅建筑能耗均值比公共建筑低35.30 kgce/(m2.a);公共建筑单位建筑面积能耗变化呈略增态势,2009年单位建筑能耗比1999年高9.64 kgce/(m2.a)。研究结果可为建筑节能减排政策的制定提供决策参考和数据支持。     

我国大学生旅游者环境意识与行为特征研究

作为潜在的生态旅游者群体,大学生对环境问题的认识、态度及其行为倾向对于旅游地生态环境的可持续发展至关重要。文章以南京林业大学为研究对象,通过问卷调查,以配额抽样法探讨大学生旅游者学科专业、性别因素对环境意识的影响,了解环境心理与行为特征,并与国内生态旅游景区旅游者进行对比,研究发现当代大学生旅游者表现出较好的环境态度和倾向,行为意愿上显示出"绿色"的特征,同时专业课程学习以及实践经历能够增强环境认知和情感,对旅游环境与生态知识的渴求和认知程度对整体环境意识水平有较大影响,然而大学生旅游者的环境意识多来源于理论,存在着知行脱节,环境行为滞后于环境情感、意志。应将旅游环境教育与各学科教学结合起来,开展培养环境责任和环保能力的旅游实践活动,加强大学校园环境及文化建设,积极培育大学生旅游环境意识及管理旅游环境行为。     

适于旧电厂脱硫改造的石灰石-石膏简易湿法脱硫工艺

综合近年来旧电厂小机组脱硫改造有场地小、投资低、上马快、运营稳定的需要,笔者推荐一种优化的新型石灰石-石膏简易湿法脱硫工艺,该工艺在工艺流程、设备配置上都进行了精简,适应燃煤小机组脱硫。     

植物滞尘分析及其数学表达模式

在植被的树冠结构分析、植物滞尘机理和粉尘沉降速度半经验公式的基础上,建立了植物滞留大气颗粒物的数学表达式。利用Beta功能函数φθ(X)、叶面的投影面积、叶面积密度a(z)、叶投影面积分布参数Kx、Kz等描述不同植被冠层的结构特征,并分析了冠层内的空气动力变化和树冠内气溶胶的平衡公式。借鉴Slinn的颗粒物沉降半经验公式、Petroffa等的阔叶滞尘计算模式,植物滞尘沉降通量数学表达式以树冠中树叶的位置为变量、由颗粒物在单片树叶上的各物理机制的沉降速度积分而成。结合国内外植物上沉降速度的试验结果和植物滞尘沉降通量公式的分析结果对影响植物滞尘的主要因素进行了比较分析。     

Optimal Foraging, Institutions and Forest Change: A Case from Nepal

The forest composition we witness today is a productof temporal anthropogenic and nonanthropogenicdisturbances. Scholars from geography, anthropology,and other disciplines have long been aware of theinforming nature of spatial relationships: humanactions in a previous time often leave imprints intoday's landscape. Traditional empirical studies offorest condition typically ignore this type ofinformation and rely on aggregated forest-levelindicators developed from aspatial plot-levelanalyses. This paper conducts a spatial analysis ofone important forest product species, Shorearobusta, in a foraging setting in southern Nepal. Forest plot locations were located using DifferentialGlobal Positioning Systems (DGPS) and were processedusing a Geographic Information System. Three rivalhypotheses of the geographic distribution of Shorea robusta are presented: (1) a pattern of nohuman disturbance, (2) a pattern of open access andoptimal foraging, and (3) a pattern of optimalforaging altered by the geographic configuration ofenforced institutions. Multivariate regression modelsare estimated and optimal foraging patterns areidentified. Statistical tests lend support to thethird hypothesis. Methods such as the ones presentedhere are important if we are to better understand thegeographic implications of institutional design onhuman behavior and the environmental outcomes that result.     

CONTINENTAL SCALE SIMULATION OF THE HYDROLOGIC BALANCE1

This paper describes the application of a continuous daily water balance model called SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for the conterminous U.S. The local water balance is represented by four control volumes; (1) snow, (2) soil profile, (3) shallow aquifer, and (4) deep aquifer. The components of the water balance are simulated using “storage” models and readily available input parameters. All the required databases (soils, landuse, and topography) were assembled for the conterminous U.S. at 1:250,000 scale. A GIS interface was utilized to automate the assembly of the model input files from map layers and relational databases. The hydrologic balance for each soil association polygon (78,863 nationwide) was simulated without calibration for 20 years using dominant soil and land use properties. The model was validated by comparing simulated average annual runoff with long term average annual runoff from USGS stream gage records. Results indicate over 45 percent of the modeled U.S. are within 50 mm of measured, and 18 percent are within 10 mm without calibration. The model tended to under predict runoff in mountain areas due to lack of climate stations at high elevations. Given the limitations of the study, (i.e., spatial resolution of the data bases and model simplicity), the results show that the large scale hydrologic balance can be realistically simulated using a continuous water balance model.     

Weighted Regressions on Time,Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), with an Application to Chesapeake Bay River Inputs1

Hirsch, Robert M., Douglas L. Moyer, and Stacey A. Archfield, 2010. Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), With an Application to Chesapeake Bay River Inputs. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):857-880. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00482.x Abstract: A new approach to the analysis of long-term surface water-quality data is proposed and implemented. The goal of this approach is to increase the amount of information that is extracted from the types of rich water-quality datasets that now exist. The method is formulated to allow for maximum flexibility in representations of the long-term trend, seasonal components, and discharge-related components of the behavior of the water-quality variable of interest. It is designed to provide internally consistent estimates of the actual history of concentrations and fluxes as well as histories that eliminate the influence of year-to-year variations in streamflow. The method employs the use of weighted regressions of concentrations on time, discharge, and season. Finally, the method is designed to be useful as a diagnostic tool regarding the kinds of changes that are taking place in the watershed related to point sources, groundwater sources, and surface-water nonpoint sources. The method is applied to datasets for the nine large tributaries of Chesapeake Bay from 1978 to 2008. The results show a wide range of patterns of change in total phosphorus and in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite. These results should prove useful in further examination of the causes of changes, or lack of changes, and may help inform decisions about future actions to reduce nutrient enrichment in the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed.     

APPLICABILITY OF THE t-TEST FOR DETECTING TRENDS IN WATER QUALITY VARIABLES1

ABSTRACT: A major concern in managing water resources is whether or not water quality variables have changed over time or space. The two-sample Student's t-test is probably the most commonly used statistical test for this purpose. Given that the underlying assumptions of the test may often be violated by water quality variables, a major concern regarding applicability of the test arises. This paper reviews and synthesizes available information in order to examine the effects of non-normality, unequal variances, serial dependence, and seasonality on the performance of the two-sample t-test. The results suggest the t-test is robust for non-normal distributions if the distributions have the same shape (either symmetric or skewed) and sample sizes are equal. The t-test is also robust for unequal variances if the sample sizes are equal. The t-test appears not to be robust when: 1) samples come from two distributions of different shape, 2) samples have unequal variances and unequal sample sizes, 3) serial dependence in observations is present, or 4) seasonal changes, in concentration are present and not removed.     

多介质环境循环模型的研究进展

多介质环境模型是８０年代发展起来的新型环境数学模型，它将各种不同环境介质单元同导致污染物跨过介质间交界面的各种过程相连接，对污染物的过程，迁移和归趋进行模拟，对环境影响的早期评价、化学品的环境暴露和安全管理具有重要的意义。本文就多介质环境数学模型的基本理论、研究现状、应用前景和发展趋势作了综述和展望，并提出了值得开展研究的若干前沿课题。文章还给出５幅图解和约１００篇参考文献。