活性污泥生物除磷数学模型研究进展

概述了活性污泥生物除磷过程的Comeau／Wentzel模式和Mino模式，以及以Wentzel和Smolders为代表的两类生物除磷数学模型，提出结合Smolders模型与ASM2、ASM2D模型的优点建立结构完整、参数较少、辨识简单的模型，是生物除磷数学模型发展的方向。     

Indicators for sustainable energy development: An initiative by the International Atomic Energy Agency

Since 1999, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been leading a multinational, multi‐agency effort to develop a set of energy indicators useful for measuring progress on sustainable development at the national level. This effort has included the identification of major relevant energy indicators, the development of a framework for implementation and the testing of the applicability of this tool in a number of countries. To achieve these goals, the IAEA has worked closely with other international organizations, leaders in energy and environmental statistics and analysis including the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), Eurostat and the European Environment Agency (EEA). Also, the IAEA completed a three‐year coordinated research project for the implementation and testing of the original set of indicators in seven countries — Brazil, Cuba, Lithuania, Mexico, the Russian Federation, the Slovak Republic and Thailand. This article provides an overview of the IAEA programme on Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development (ISED) and highlights its experiences and accomplishments.     

A WATER QUALITY MODEL FOR A CONJUNCTIVE SURFACE-GROUNDWATER SYSTEM: AN OVERVIEW1

ABSTRACT. A mathematical model to predict water quality in a surface-groundwater system is under development. This project is being sponsored by the Environmental Protection Agency. The ultimate goal of this study is to obtain cause and effect relationships between pollutant sources and the ensuing concentrations at different locations in a basin. Several programs are used to model the various hydrologic processes occurring in nature, namely: rainfall, runoff, flow in surface bodies of water, infiltration, and groundwater flow. At every time step in the simulation, the water quantity computations for the above hydrologic models are performed first. Subsequently, the results of these computations, typically in the form of flow velocities, are used as input to the water quality calculations. The water quality routines involve the modeling of the associated physical, chemical, and biological processes. In this study, emphasis is being placed on pollution in agricultural areas. Accordingly the Lake Apopka basin in Central Florida is being used as the application site.     

MULTIPURPOSE OPERATION STUDIES OF A CANAL-LAKE-RIVER SYSTEM-OSWEGO RIVER SYSTEM,NEW YORK1

Use of systems analysis techniques for setting up flow regulation rules for the Oswego River System, a canal-river system with eight lakes, was examined. Two sets of lake regulation rules were proposed: the rule curve for each lake, and the lake-use priority curves for all the lakes. The former specifies balanced allocation of the storage in lakes to conservation pools and flood control pools and, the latter determines lakes releases depending upon the type of operation, the time of the year, and systems objectives. A generalized mathematical representation of the complex, multipurpose, multilake river systems operation is described. With appropriate measures of effectiveness and details of analysis, the problem was then solved with simulation and optimization. Use of the results in assisting basin plan formulation is also discussed.     

基于模糊识别的建筑物火灾危险性评价方法

笔者以传统的经典统计和模糊统计为基础 ,依据建筑物火灾危险性的影响因素 ,应用模糊识别理论及系统安全方法 ,建立了建筑物火灾危险性的评价指标体系 ;并应用集值统计方法对各项指标权重进行了处理。该方法改变了过去统计给出一个固定值的做法 ,而给出一个区间值 ,解决了对专家给出的指标“大约是多少”这一概念的定量化。为了验证了评价模型的准确性 ,将该理论应用到某购物商场火灾危险性评价中 ,取得了满意效果 ,为建筑物防火设计以及安全管理提供了可行的依据。     

USE OF FIRST-ORDER UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS TO OPTIMIZE SUCCESSFUL STREAM WATER QUALITY SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: A first-order uncertainty technique is developed to quantify the relationship between field data collection and a modeling exercise involving both calibration and subsequent verification. A simple statistic (LTOTAL) is used to quantify the total likelihood (probability) of successfully calibrating and verifying the model. Results from the first-order technique are compared with those from a traditional Monte Carlo simulation approach using a simple Streeter-Phelps dissolved oxygen model. The largest single difference is caused by the filtering or removal of unrealistic outcomes within the Monte Carlo framework. The amount of bias inherent in the first-order approach is also a function of the magnitude of input variability and sampling location. The minimum bias of the first-order technique is approximately 20 percent for a case involving relatively large uncertainties. However the bias is well behaved (consistent) so as to allow for correct decision making regarding the relative efficacy of various sampling strategies. The utility of the first-order technique is demonstrated by linking data collection costs with modeling performance. For a simple and inexpensive project, a wise and informed selection resulted in an LTOTAL value of 86 percent, while an uninformed selection could result in an LTOTAL value of only 55 percent.     

A CRITICAL APPROACH TO THE CALIBRATION OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A complex watershed-scale water quality simulation model, the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model, was calibrated for a 16 km² catchment. The simulation step size was 0.33 hours with predicted and recorded hydrologic flows compared on an annual and monthly basis during a total calibration period of four years. Unguided numerical optimization when applied alone did not yield a model parameter set with acceptable predictive capability; instead, it was necessary to apply a critical process that included sensitivity analysis, numerical optimization, and testing of derived model parameter sets to evaluate their performance for periods other than those for which they were determined. Using this critical calibration process, the model was proven to have significant predictive capability. Numerical optimization is an aid for model calibration, but it must not be used blindly.     

TARGETING NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION CONTROL: PHOSPHORUS IN THE MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The state of Minnesota seeks to reduce phosphorus loading to the Minnesota River by 40 percent from current levels. Looking at one major watershed in the river basin, we examined the cost effectiveness of targeting versus not targeting specific practices or regions within a watershed for controlling nonpoint phosphorus pollution from agriculture. Integrating biophysical simulation results from current and alternative farming systems with production cost and return estimates enabled us to analyze this policy. Our results indicated it is more cost effective to reduce nonpoint pollution by targeting particular regions or practices in a watershed compared to not targeting. Specifically, producers farming on cropland susceptible to erosion in close proximity to water will appreciably reduce phosphorus nonpoint pollution loading potential by switching from conventional tillage to conservation tillage and by reducing phosphorus fertilization levels to those recommended by the state extension service. Efforts to target those producers in the Minnesota River Basin could reduce potential transaction costs and compensation from “takings” by approximately $50 million (74 percent) over not targeting.     

软土地层地铁盾构施工风险可拓评估方法研究

为了综合评价软土地层地铁盾构施工风险,结合软土地层土质特点,选取地质复杂情况、地下水状况、最小覆土厚度、最小曲率半径、掘进长度、与临近周边环境距离和施工管理水平7个风险影响因素作为评价指标,采用简单关联函数法计算得到各评价指标的权重,避免了主观因素的干扰,运用可拓学理论建立了风险可拓评估模型,并将该模型应用于宁波轨道交通工程2号线栎社机场站-栎社新村站盾构区间的风险评估,得到该区间盾构施工风险等级为中度风险,评估结果较好地反映了工程的实际情况。     

2016年11-12月国内环境事件

简要统计了2016年11-12月国内发生的各种环境事件87起,包括沙尘天气4起,污染事件18起,地震50起,山体滑坡和泥石流6起,以及其他自然灾害9起.