A Bayesian-weighted approach to predicting the number of newly discovered rare species

In natural ecological communities, most species are rare and thus susceptible to extinction. Consequently, the prediction and identification of rare species are of enormous value for conservation purposes. How many newly found species will be rare in the next field survey? We took a Bayesian viewpoint and used observed species abundance information in an ecological sample to develop an accurate way to estimate the number of new rare species (e.g., singletons, doubletons, and tripletons) in an additional unknown sample. A similar method has been developed for incidence-based data sets. Five seminumerical tests (3 abundance cases and 2 incidence cases) showed that our proposed Bayesian-weight estimator accurately predicted the number of new rare species with low relative bias and low relative root mean squared error and, accordingly, high accuracy. Finally, we applied the proposed estimator to 6 conservation-directed empirical data sets (3 abundance cases and 3 incidence cases) and found the prediction of new rare species was quite accurate; the 95% CI covered the true observed value very well in most cases. Our estimator performed similarly to or better than an unweighted estimator derived from Chao et al. and performed consistently better than the naïve unweighted estimator. We recommend our Bayesian-weight estimator for conservation applications, although the unweighted estimator of Chao et al. may be better under some circumstances. We provide an R package RSE (r are s pecies e stimation) at https://github.com/ecomol/RSE for implementation of the estimators.     

OPTIMUM DESIGN OF BORDER IRRIGATION SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: Border irrigation systems like most of the other surface irrigation systems, do not need too much energy and special equipment. Thus, many farmers have used this system for a long time. On the other hand, design of surface irrigation systems including border irrigation requires many input parameters, and need intensive engineering calculations. The burden of these requirements probably led the users to experimental design of the systems with low efficiencies. However, accurate design and high quality optimization of the border irrigation system that can result in a highly efficient system is possible. In this study, an optimization model for border irrigation system is presented. The Hook Jeev's pattern search optimization method in conjunction with a general mathematical model of border irrigation is used to maximize the irrigation application efficiency. The border irrigation storage and distribution efficiencies, border slope and length, inflow rate, cutoff time, and the Manning's roughness coefficient are selected as constraints. The model is applied to field-measured data. The results show that it is possible to select a suitable combination of the border system's parameters (border's length, inflow rate, and cutoff time) to obtain a maximum application efficiency.     

跨界融合子处理高浓度有机废水投资最小化模型研究

以跨界融合子基因工程菌处理高浓度有机废水为研究对象,建立了处理系统投资最小化数学模型及相应的约束方程,探讨该处理系统的优化设计问题。研究中以进水ＢＯＤ浓度Ｓ０、微生物浓度Ｘ和回流比Ｒ为初始控制变量,通过对跨界融合子降解豆制品废水实例验证,表明在给定的初始变量范围内有惟一的最优解,为处理工艺的合理设计提供了依据。     

高层建筑救火模型的研究

在分析我国目前高层建筑救火费用(救火消防车数和消防队员数)的基础上,提出运用优化数学的思路,建立高层建筑救火模型。首先,确定高层建筑救火费用的目标函数、约束条件、策略,将目标函数写成约束条件和策略的函数;然后,根据高层建筑火灾的特点,提出建立模型的8个假设条件,从而建立一个高层建筑救火数学模型,运用高等数学微积分的有关知识对数学模型进行求解与分析,从而达到高层建筑救火费用最低的目的。最后,以实例论证了该数学模型在高层建筑救火中的应用效果,同时为高层建筑救火提供理论上、方法上的指导。     

膜生物反应器工艺污水处理厂设计进水水质的确定

城市污水处理厂进水水质是工程设计的基本参数,进水水质的测定分析对污水处理厂的设计具有重要意义。对无锡市城北污水处理厂的现状进水水质进行了调查和分析,提出按照水质指标浓度出现的频率确定污水处理厂设计进水水质的方法,并针对采用的膜生物反应器(MBR)工艺的特点,提出:(1)根据实测数据按照一定的保证概率可以用来确定城市污水处理厂设计进水水质;(2)为了使水质的确定更加符合设计工程的实际情况,根据实测数据分析确定设计进水水质指标时,一般还需要进行趋势性调整和季节性调整;(3)确定合理的指标浓度与流量,以此为依据进行反应池的工艺设计,同时要校核夏季温度高、浓度低、流量大和冬季温度低、浓度高、流量小的工况是否满足处理要求,然后取冬、夏季校核值以及未作季节性调整设计值中最不利情况作为设计值,才能充分保证出水达到处理要求。     

对美国格林威治湾底栖动物造成危害的潜在胁迫因子的诊断

格林威治湾是纳拉甘西特湾一处受到多种影响因子作用的城市化形成港湾。本研究鉴定了对于格林威治湾底栖动物的重要影响因素。首先利用现存数据与信息来验证水体受损情况。其次确定了影响来源,影响因素和具体影响的存在。继而探究了来源,影响因素和具体影响之间的关系。这使我们能够鉴定出最可能危害水体的影响因素。本研究评估了化学制品、营养物质和悬浮沉积物3类污染物。这种证据权重的方法表明格林威治湾主要受到富营养化相关的影响因素危害。格林威治湾的沉积物富含碳,低溶解氧浓度的情况十分常见,尤其在格林威治湾西部。底栖生物群落出现发育不良的情况,与在氧气不足情况下的预测结果吻合。尽管我们的分析表明环境中的污染物浓度可能导致有害结果的出现,我们并未在结果中检出毒性。这是由于沉积物中存在大量的有机物,这些有机物限制了污染物的生物可利用性。我们的分析还表明悬浮沉积物的影响对于湾区的大部分区域而言几乎不存在。本分析展示了诊断法步骤可以用于组织和评估影响格林威治湾生态健康的潜在影响因素。诊断法步骤对于管理受到多重因素影响的水体非常有用。
精选自Marguerite Pelletier, Kay Ho, Mark Cantwell, Monique Perron, Kenneth Rocha, Robert M. Burgess, Roxanne Johnson, Kenneth Perez, John Cardin, Michael A. Charpentier. Diagnosis of potential stressors adversely affecting benthic invertebrate communities in Greenwich Bay, Rhode Island, USA. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 36, Issue 2, pages 449–462, July 2017. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3562
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/etc.3562/full
     

建筑物火灾危险性的模糊评价

依据建筑物火灾危险性的影响因素,应用模糊识别理论及系统安全方法,建立了建筑物火灾危险性的评价指标体系,并应用集值统计方法对各项指标权重进行了处理,将该理论应用到某购物商场火灾危险性评价中,验证了评价模型的准确性,为建筑物防火设计以及安全管理提供了可行的依据。     

NOx排放统计方法综述

随着大气中NOx污染日益加重,"十一五"期间,我国拟将NOx纳入环境统计范围.通过广泛调研国内外文献,总结和分析了我国NOx排放量统计的研究现状,同时提出了相关建议.     

Geospatial Analysis of Climatic and Geomorphic Interactions Influencing Stream Discharge, Appalachian Mountains, USA

Streamflow values are commonly synthesized for locations where flow measurement stations are lacking or where only intermittent measurements are available. In an Appalachian Mountains dataset comprised of 29 watersheds, the most appropriate among geomorphic, geologic, and hydrogeologic datasets were selected for use in prediction of streamflow at watershed scale. A statistical model was developed using principal components analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) for. Using CA on variables derived from the PCA, an optimum set of variables was derived for predicting streamflow. Results indicate there are two categories of watersheds in the study area. The first is strongly correlated with climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, elevation, and groundwater recharge). The second is strongly correlated with two geomorphic variables (watershed slope and percentage of forested area). The spatial distribution of cluster classifications shows that watersheds dominated by the climatic component are located along the Allegheny Front while watersheds dominated by the geomorphic component are located in the Allegheny Plateau and Valley and Ridge physiographic provinces. These variations between the Allegheny Plateau and Valley and Ridge physiographic provinces suggest that, to accurately model streamflow, modeling needs be done based on natural physiographic boundaries rather than political boundaries. In this physiographic setting, elevation seems to be a major control.     

我国污水处理的发展趋势

目前我国污水处理的总体发展趋势;一是普及城市污水处理,二是提高工业废水排放达标率,三是推广污水回用。论文重点介绍了城市污水的强化一级处理、数学模型用于精确控制的技术,清洁生产在提高工业废水排放达标方面的作用,以及再生水作为环境用水的回用方式。