Using the bootstrap with two-phase adaptive stratified samples from multiple populations at multiple locations

Recently the two-phase adaptive stratified sampling design proposed by Francis (1984) has been extended by Manly et al. (2002) for situations where several biological populations are sampled simultaneously, and where this is done at several different geographical locations in order to estimate population totals or means. The method uses the results from a first phase sample to decide how best to allocate a second phase sample to locations and strata, in order to maximise a criterion (based on estimated coefficients of variation) that measures the accuracy of estimation for population totals, for all variables at all locations. One potential problem with this method is bias in the estimators of the population totals and means. In this paper bootstrapping is considered as a means of overcoming these biases. It is shown using model populations of Pacific walrus and shellfish, based on real data, that bootstrapping is a useful tool for removing about half of the bias. This is also confirmed from some simulations using artificial data.     

城市人居环境评价体系的研究及应用

在国内外人居环境理论研究及实践的基础上,提出了由系统层、子系统层和指标层构成的城市人居环境评价指标体系,其中系统层由社会经济环境、自然生态环境、公共设施建设、环境资源保护和环境管理能力五部分组成,子系统层由16个指标组成,指标层由43个具体指标组成。利用统计分析法(Delphi)确定各指标的权值。同时,针对本指标体系结构提出了单项评价和综合评价相结合的评价模式,并设置了城市人居环境质量指数和系统协调度两个综合性指标来全面评价城市人居环境质量。通过对重庆市渝北城区的综合评价,评价结果较客观地反映了该城区的实际。     

苏打盐碱土地区水田水盐运移模拟与预测研究

井灌种稻虽然是近年来松嫩平原西部土地苏打盐碱化治理的有效途径,但苏打盐碱地种稻改良对土壤盐分状况的长期影响,却缺乏定量化评价。作者选择该区代表性地点,通过田间观测与建立模型相结合的方法,对现有种植条件下的水田盐分动态变化进行了模拟和检验。研究发现,经过一定开垦年限土壤剖面平均含盐量下降到1.5g·kg-1左右后,在降水量正常的条件下,土壤盐分已基本达到平衡,不再随着开垦年限增加而进一步下降。相反,如遇干旱年份土壤盐分还会略有增加。需要进一步采取增加排水次数、改善土壤通透性等其它技术措施,才能使苏打盐碱地种稻改良达到更加理想的效果。     

双波长标准加入法同时测定水中硝酸盐和亚硝酸盐

本文应用双波长标准加入法同时测定了硝酸盐和亚硝酸盐，在研究硝酸盐和亚硝酸盐紫外光谱的基础上，精确选择亚硝酸盐等吸收点波长２０２．５ｎｍ，２１６．５ｎｍ为测定波长。亚硝酸盐含量回归方程经推导得Ｃ＝－３．８４１＋１５６．６Ａ，相关系Ｒ＝１．０００。将该法用于合成样品及实际水样分析，所得结果较满意。     

上海市松江镇饮用水水源区的保护与环境管理方案

保护集镇饮用水河流是当前水污染防治工作的重点。本文通过现状分析，针对城乡结合部河流以面源为主的特点，找出影响饮用水河流水质的主要污染源及污水排放特征．用系统分析方法，将集镇的经济、人口、环境统计资料作为环境管理模型的主要输入信息，经计算机仿真，得出保护水源水质应采取的对策与治理方案。     

Resampling from stochastic simulations

To model the uncertainty of an estimate of a global property, the estimation process is repeated on multiple simulated fields, with the same sampling strategy and estimation algorithm. As opposed to conventional bootstrap, this resampling scheme allows for spatially correlated data and the common situation of preferential and biased sampling. The practice of this technique is developed on a large data set where the reference sampling distributions are available. Comparison of the resampled distributions to that reference shows the probability intervals obtained by resampling to be reasonably accurate and conservative, provided the original and actual sample has been corrected for the major biases induced by preferential sampling.Andre G. Journel is a Professor of Petroleum Engineering at Stanford University with a joint appointment in the Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences. He is, also, Director of the Stanford Center for Reservoir Forecasting. Professor Journel has pioneered applications of geostatistical techniques in the mining/petroleum industry and extended his expertise to environmental applications and repository site characterization. Most notably, he developed the concept of non-parametric geostatistics and stochastic imaging with application to modeling uncertainty in reservoir/site characterization. Although the research described in this article has been supported by the United States Environmental Protection Agency under Cooperative Agreement CR819407, it has not been subjected to Agency review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

酸化—吹气—吸收法测定水及废水中的硫化物

本文设计了硫化物测定的酸化－吹气－吸收装置，验证了装置对硫化的回收效果，对硫化物标准溶液的配制及其稳定性进行了研究，对分析条件进行了最佳选择，建立了亚甲基监光度法测定硫化物的分析方法，并对实际样品进行了测定。本方法的检出限为０．００５ｍｇＳ＾２－／ｌ，线性范围为０．００５－０．７００ｍｇＳ＾２－／ｌ，可应用于水和废水样品中微量硫化物的测定。     

快速PFU微型生物群落毒性试验法对铜、铅、砷联合毒性的研究

采用快速PFU微型生物群落毒性试验法对铜、铅、砷的联合毒性进行了研究 ,并用相加指数法评价其联合效应 .结果表明 ,Cu(Ⅱ )与Pb (Ⅱ ) ,Cu(Ⅱ )与As(Ⅴ )的联合毒性为协同作用 ;Pb(Ⅱ )与As(Ⅴ )的联合毒性为相加作用     

浅丘河道生态需水量计算方法对比研究——以鄂北地区水河为例

适宜的生态需水量是保障河道生态系统健康的重要因素,合理地计算生态需水量对河道生态系统评估具有现实意义。以鄂北地区典型浅丘河道——水河为例,基于Qp法(不同频率最枯月平均值法)、频率曲线法、最小月平均流量法、Tennant法及生物习性法5种方法的生态流量计算结果,探讨了各方法计算结果的合理性与适用性。结果表明:由于上下游河道水文条件差异性,上游断面采用生物习性法能较好地拟合河道水文节律变化和水质波动;同理,下游断面采用频率曲线法更加匹配下游河道水文、水质情况。因此,在河道上、下游断面分别采用生物习性法、频率曲线法计算得到适宜生态需水量为0.21 m^3/s、2.02 m^3/s。     

河流营养物参照状态的建立方法研究进展

建立营养物参照状态是河流水污染控制的关键问题之一。系统论述了参照状态的各种内涵,重点分析了国外建立河流营养物参照状态的各种方法及优缺点,并分析了其在中国的适用性。最后,提出了河流营养物参照状态的进一步研究的重点。参照状态根据允许人类活动影响的程度可有多种含义:最小干扰状态、历史状态、最少干扰状态和最佳可达成状态。其中,最少干扰状态和最佳可达成状态在现实管理中具有一定程度的可操作性。参照河流百分比法是建立营养物参照状态的首选方法,但中国水环境污染形势严峻,参照点变得越来越少。当参照点不存在时,一般河流百分比法是参照河流百分比法的替代方法,然而一般河流百分比法和参照河流百分比法的匹配性关系并不完全保持一致。由于栖息地退化等因素对生物完整性的影响程度可能比营养物浓度更大,生物响应法在实际应用中是非常困难的。流域模型法虽然有众多优点,但是数据要求较高,并且常用流域模型的机理与中国有较大差距,在中国应用的结果具有较大的不确定性。综合考虑中国水环境污染现状和数据要求,以多元线性回归模型为代表的简易模型方法在中国应有最大的适用性。然而,环境因素与营养物质间的关系往往都是非线性的,今后应着重研究建立河流营养物参照状态的多元非线性回归模型方法。此外,还应加强季风河流营养物参照状态的季节性差异与年际差异研究,并在全国层面上根据自然因素划分适当规模的生态区,分区确定各生态区的河流营养物参照状态。