变权组合模型在景观水体水质模拟中的应用

针对景观水体的水质模拟与预测问题,在BP神经网络和支持向量机模型的基础上,建立了权重随输入量变化的变权组合模型。该模型既能充分利用各个单一模型的优点,又能避免固定权重分配的弊端。经实例验证,与单一的BP神经网络和支持向量机模型相比,变权组合模型拟合精度更高,预测结果更为准确。     

生态安全格局约束下长株潭都市圈建设用地演变模拟与管控

为探索生态安全格局下区域可持续发展模式,选取长株潭都市圈为研究对象,通过遥感数据识别2000—2020年建设用地变化情况,采用综合生态重要性评估模型和MCR（minimal cumulative resistance）模型构建都市圈生态安全格局,基于FLUS模型（future land use change scenario simulation model）设置自然发展(ND)、核心生态块保护(CEP)、生态安全格局约束(ESPR) 3种建设用地模拟情景,在模拟结果的基础上划定长株潭都市圈城镇开发边界。结果表明：2000—2020年长株潭都市圈建设用地扩张迅速,且由急速无序扩张转为缓速集中扩张;利用综合生态重要性评价得到极重要性生态用地共计2 649.54 km²,筛选得到生态源地共计1 204.38 km²,占研究区总面积的13.97%,并构建出长株潭都市圈综合生态安全格局;在ND、CEP、ESPR 3种情景模式下,2030年长株潭都市圈建设用地规模分别达到1 345.88、1 345.79和1 284.94 km²。基于ESPR情景划定城镇开发边界范围,可有效实现土地经济和生态效益的最大化,并为该地区的生态保护和土地利用规划提供参考。

     

燃煤机组电除尘器入口烟道流场优化数值模拟研究

燃煤机组环保设施连接烟道阻力增加是风机能耗增大的主要因素之一,对烟道进行流场优化,降低烟道阻力和风机能耗是燃煤电厂节能降耗的有效途径之一。采用CFD数值模拟对某电厂660 MW燃煤机组电除尘器入口烟道进行流场优化,重点分析了5种不同优化方案下烟道阻力、风机能耗、灰质量流量分配比例、烟气灰浓度、导流板磨损速率等参数的变化规律。结果表明：通过设置合理结构形式及数量的导流板实现烟道降阻幅度28.7%,单台机组最大可节约风机能耗190 kW·h,节能降耗效果显著。新增导流板对烟气中灰质量流量分配比例具有调节作用,优化后A、B两侧烟道内灰质量流量比例偏差由14.8%降低至6.6%,提高了电除尘器的综合除尘率。烟道流场优化在改善灰浓度场分布的同时降低了导流板的磨损,优化后导流板的平均磨损速率由1.33×10⁻⁷ kg/(m²·s)降低至0.56×10⁻⁷ kg/(m²·s),降幅高达57.6%,导流板使用寿命是优化前的2.4倍,提高了机组运行的安全性和可靠性。

     

汽油清净性快速检测方法与监管方案研究

车用汽油清净性与汽车尾气污染物排放水平、燃油经济性等密切相关。为提高汽油清净性检测效率、提升相关职能部门的监管能力,提出了一种车载移动式多通道汽油清净性快速模拟检测方法（简称多通道快速模拟检测法）。与我国法规推荐的汽油机进气阀沉积物模拟试验方法（简称快速模拟检测法）相比,多通道快速模拟检测法的单个油样检测总耗时降低77.8%,多个油样检测总耗时降低94.4%,检验用油量减少约80%,成本降低约90%;多通道快速模拟检测法与快速模拟检测法具有较好的相关性（皮尔逊相关系数为0.4~0.8）,可用于汽油清净性的快速检测。最后,提出了汽油清净性的现场监管检测方案。

     

考虑油滴碰撞聚结的斜板除油过程模拟

考虑离散油滴在油田废水除油过程中发生的油滴碰撞聚结现象,模拟得出斜板除油器内全部油滴的动态信息,用于斜板除油器除油效率的计算.对矩形同向流斜板除油过程的模拟研究表明:油滴的碰撞聚结会增加斜板除油的效率;当废水的原始含油浓度增大时,斜板除油的效率会增大,碰撞聚结对除油效率提高的影响也越大;废水流动速度提高及斜板的倾斜角度增加均会使斜板的除油效率降低,但此时油滴碰撞聚结对除油效率的影响仍很明显.     

Testing hypotheses on shape and distribution of ecological response curves

Niche theory with hypotheses on shape and distribution of ecological response curves is used in the studies of resource sharing of competing plant species. Predictions based on theory should be applicable when, e.g., effects of competing species on the ecological tolerances are assessed or species’ diversity along a resource gradient is evaluated. We studied the ecological response curves of competing plant species along a resource gradient in boreal forests. The study was based on nation-wide soil and vegetation data collected from 455 sample plots on boreal forests in Finland. Species response curves along a soil fertility gradient (in terms of C/N ratio) were estimated using generalized additive models. Distribution of species optima and the relationship of niche width and skewness to the location of the optimum were analyzed with new bootstrap tests. The developed tests can account for the effects of truncation observed in the response curves of several species and for the uneven distribution of observations on the gradient.The estimated response curves of the major field layer species of boreal forests were not evenly distributed along soil C/N gradient. The density of optima peaked with relatively high nitrogen availability. Species with optima at low nitrogen availability had relatively broad realized niches. Niche width was negatively correlated with the density of optima. Species optima were packed and niches were narrow at high resource levels. This result suggests that a greater number of more specialized species can occur and interspecific competition decreases niche widths at high resource levels. Species were packed in the gradient where the C/N ratio was lower than 25, i.e., in conditions where nitrification can take place. This indicates that the majority of the vascular plants of boreal forests are favoured by the availability of NO₃⁻. Those few species thriving at high C/N ratios have broader realized niches.     

NUMERICAL MODEL OF A TRACER TEST ON THE SANTA CLARA RWER,VENTURA COUNTY,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: To better understand the flow processes, solute-trans. port processes, and ground-water/surface-water interactions on the Santa Clara River in Ventura County, California, a 24-hour fluorescent-dye tracer study was performed under steady-state flow conditions on a 45-km reach of the river. The study reach includes perennial (uppermost and lowermost) subreaches and ephemeral subreaches of the lower Piru Creek and the middle Santa Clara River. The tracer-test data were used to calibrate a one-dimensional flow model (DAFLOW) and a solute-transport model (BLTM). The dye-arrival times at each sample location were simulated by calibrating the velocity parameters in DAFLOW. The simulations of dye transport indicated that (1) ground-water recharge explains the loss of mass in the ephemeral middle subreaches, and (2) ground-water recharge does not explain the loss of mass in the perennial uppermost and lowermost subreaches. The observed tracer curves in the perennial subreaches were indicative of sorptive dye losses, transient storage, and (or) photodecay - these phenomena were simulated using a linear decay term. However, analysis of the linear decay terms indicated that photodecay was not a dominant source of dye loss.     

Rehabilitation of a lowland river: Reconciling flood defence with habitat diversity and geomorphological sustainability

Geomorphologically appropriate rehabilitation measures were proposed to enhance the in-stream environment of the lowland River Idle, north Nottinghamshire, UK. However, the River Idle has multi-functional management requirements including those of flood defence so environmental enhancement must be pursued without significantly increasing the flood risk. Hydraulic testing of rehabilitation proposals is complicated because of the stringent assumptions about flow and morphology in ‘traditional’ hydraulic models. While new generation two- and three-dimension hydraulic models may overcome some of these problems, they are extremely data intensive, require advanced modelling capabilities and are, therefore, very expensive to apply. Also, they do not yet predict morphology-flow interactions adequately. As an alternative, several simple hydraulic models were applied to test the rehabilitation proposals, based on a fitness-for-purpose criterion.BENDFLOW was applied to fine tune the optimal siting of measures and to estimate the additional near-bank scour generated by proposed bend re-profiling. HMODEL2 and the FCFA method were used to test the impact on local channel conveyance capacities and HECRAS was applied to simulate the impact of the proposals on regional flood defence. Indicative results from the testing suggested a maximum increase in near-bank scour of 0·15 m in re-profiled bends, a loss of approximately 10% in flood conveyance locally due to deflector installation or reed and tree planting, and a 0·12 m increase in flood stage within the reach for a 15 year flood. The modelling results were acceptable to the management authority as an indication of an acceptable compromise between flood defence and conservation interests, and construction of the measures followed in 1996. It is clearly that it will require the results of post-project monitoring to indicate whether compromises made to the rehabilitation initiatives in order to satisfy flood defence requirements have unduly reduced their environmental enhancement potential but, for assessing the proposed methods, the models are recommended for use other lowland river environments.     

近10年流域江湖关系变化作用下鄱阳湖水动力及水质特征模拟

鄱阳湖水文情势受流域来水及长江共同影响,近10年流域、长江和鄱阳湖间关系发生了较大变化,导致了新的水文节律调整,进一步使得湖区水质环境发生变化.对近10年序列(2003—2012年)和1956—2002年序列的多年平均的日水文过程进行对比,分析了鄱阳湖的流域入流、湖口出流及湖区水位的年内变化过程;近10年鄱阳湖最高水位降低,湖相时间变短,河相时间增长;通过构建鄱阳湖的二维水动力水质模型,并采用实测2010年湖区水动力及水质数据对模型进行率定验证,在此基础上着重研究流域、江湖水文情势变化条件下,湖区的水动力和水质发生的变化.模拟结果显示,由于4—6月间湖区丰水期滞后13 d,8—10月间枯水期提前21 d,导致TN浓度在两个时间段内分别上升10.6%和12.4%,TP浓度在两期间内分别升高11.7%和13.6%.在8—10月期间,湖区水位下降速率增加,南部与西部的碟型湖提前与主湖区分离,形成相对静水的水塘,加剧了碟型湖的富营养化风险.     

基于增强回归树的城市PM2.5日均值变化分析:以常州为例

利用2014年12月至2015年11月常州市区6个国控监测站空气污染物浓度逐时数据,分析了PM_(2.5)浓度季节变化特征,采用增强回归树模拟分析了PM10、4种气态污染物和7个气象因子对ρ(PM_(2.5))日变化的贡献.结果表明,常州市区PM_(2.5)污染季节差异明显,冬季污染严重且持续时间长,夏季污染较轻.四季ρ(PM_(2.5))空间分布特征存在一定差异,但各季内不同监测站差异较小.增强回归树对ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值进行模拟和验证得到,训练数据的相关性为0.981,交叉验证的相关性为0.957.此外,模拟值与实测值的标准化平均偏差为1.80%,标准化平均误差为10.41%,可见模型拟合效果较好.PM10、气态污染物、气象因子和区域输送及扩散这4种影响类型对全年ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值差异的贡献率分别为23.4%、28%、36.2%和12.6%,表明在对ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值差异的影响上,气象因子二次形成一次源区域输送及扩散.在对ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值差异贡献率大于5%的因子中,ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值与PM10、相对湿度、CO和O3正相关,与温度、SO2和混合层高度负相关,与大气压和NO2关系较复杂.区域输送及扩散方面,东南风向、偏西风向和偏北风向等上风向周边城市的污染物输送对常州市区PM_(2.5)污染存在较大的负面影响.