CLIMATOLOGICAL WATERSHED CALIBRATION1

ABSTRACT: This study tests the hypothesis that climatic data can be used to develop a watershed model so that stream flow changes following forest harvest can be determined. Measured independent variables were precipitation, daily maximum and minimum temperature, and concurrent relative humidity. Computed variables were humidity deficit, saturated vapor pressure, and ambient vapor pressure. These climatic variables were combined to compute a monthly evaporation index. Finally, the evaporation index and monthly precipitation were regressed with measured monthly stream flow and the monthly estimates of stream flow were combined for the hydrologic year. A regression of predicted versus measured annual stream flow had a standard error of 1.5 inches (within 6.1 percent of the measured value). When 10, 15, and 20 years of data were used to develop the regression equations, predicted minus measured stream flow for the last 7 years of record (1972–1978) were within 16.8, 11.5, and 9.7 percent of the measured mean, respectively. Although single watershed calibration can be used in special conditions, the paired watershed approach is expected to remain the preferred method for determining the effects of forest management on the water resource.     

水泥土搅拌桩复合地基静载试验检测法的安全度分析

在检测水泥土搅拌桩复合地基的承载力能否达到设计要求时 ,最常用的方法是单桩静载试验法和复合地基静载试验法。工程实践中发现 ,采用这两种静载试验方法得到的检测结果存在较大差异。笔者根据水泥土搅拌桩的基本特性 ,结合工程实例 ,对这两种静载试验检测结果存在的差异及其安全度进行比较分析 ,得出单桩静载试验法结果的安全度高于复合地基试验法结果的结论 ,因此 ,提出了一些合理化建议     

Morphological Study on Hydrolytic Degradation of Poly(tetramethylene succinate) Single Crystals and Spherulites

The morphological changes of Poly(tetramethylene succinate) single crystal lamellae by hydrolysis are investigated, using TEM, WAXD and SAXS. And the morphology of PTMS spherulites was also observed by optical microscopy after treatments as well as single crystal lamellae. The edge region of single crystal lamella can be most easily affected in the initial stage of hydrolysis. As the hydrolysis time increases, the lamellae are separated into small fragments which may be started from the uneven or irregular parts of the surface. The WAXD results showed that crystallinity were increased with increasing of treatment time. The lamellar thickness decreased at the initial stage of hydrolysis and increased again. There were cracks on the surface of spherulites after hydrolysis and the direction of cracks were tangential direction of spherulites. This result was thought to be from the uniformity of molecular arrangement in the crystallographic unit cell.     

单季晚稻穗颈瘟气象预报集成模型

根据1985—1998年上海地区单季晚稻穗颈瘟发生程度资料、地面气象资料、500hPa高空环流因子和北太平洋海温场资料，挑选相关系数较高且稳定性好的预报因子，在应用逐步回归和逐步判别分析方法组建预报模型的基础上，集成了单季晚稻穗颈瘟发生程度的长、中、短期预报模型。3种预报集成模型的起报时间分别为当年的3月、7月和8月下旬。这3种预报集成模型对1985-1998年的历史拟合和1999—2002年的预报，误差均未超过1级。     

不饱和聚酯树脂在储罐内衬改造中的静电危害分析

为分析不饱和聚酯树脂在内衬改造应用中存在的引燃风险,阐述加油站埋地罐内衬改造工艺,测试不饱和聚酯树脂固化放热特性、与玻璃钢摩擦的滚刷及装树脂绝缘桶的表面静电电位。结果表明:不饱和聚酯树脂与固化剂混合后的放热不足以引起树脂自燃;滚刷、树脂与绝缘桶间摩擦可导致桶表面静电位超过7 kV,带电绝缘体表面与金属凸出物间存在静电放电现象、甚至引起挥发苯乙烯局部闪燃风险。油罐内衬改造时需强化通风以及增加静电防护措施,避免静电放电引起罐内燃爆事故。     

单纤维过滤介质表面尘粒捕集的随机模拟

基于控制面概念和粒子运动轨迹计算,建立单纤维过滤介质表面尘粒捕集的三维随机计算模型,采用Ku-wabara流场表征单纤维表面的气流绕流特征。计算分析了St数、无量纲粒径及单纤维过滤模型填充密度对沉积物形态结构和积尘状态下单纤维捕集效率的影响。结果指出,St数对沉积物形态结构具有显著作用,随St数减小,沉积物由紧密的堆积结构演变为分叉显著的树枝状结构。模拟结果还发现,无论过滤条件如何变化,无量纲单纤维捕集效率随捕集粒子数呈近似线性增加关系。     

基于多元子代理模块系统(MAS)的单司机值乘驾驶安全可靠性研究

介绍并分析影响单司机值乘驾驶安全可靠性的因素,强调单司机值乘人-机-环境系统安全性中人行为的重要性,提出利用MAS模型对单司机值乘的安全可靠性进行分析。介绍该模型的标定过程,给出其驾驶行为的安全可靠度和Agent模型结合在一起来确定司机决策行为的过程和方法。为提高我国单司机值乘驾驶安全性提供了一种研究方法。     

齐齐哈尔市春季大气中PM2.5的污染特征分析

2013年4—6月分析了齐齐哈尔市大气PM2.5的浓度特征、元素组成、水溶性离子及其来源,并利用单颗粒分析技术获得了单颗粒的形貌、化学组成及粒度分布。结果表明,监测周期PM2.5日均质量浓度为34μg/m3,受气象条件影响显著。PM2.5单颗粒类型主要为烟尘集合体、飞灰和矿物颗粒,分别来源于煤炭燃料的燃烧、机动车尾气排放和扬尘。其中约90%的PM2.5颗粒粒径小于1.0μm,属大气细粒子。全样分析表明,PM2.5主要组成元素是Al、Fe、Ca、K、Mg和Na,而Zn、Cu和Pb因受到人为污染富集度较高。SO42-、NO3-和Cl-为PM2.5主要监测到的水溶性阴离子,NO3-与SO42-的质量浓度比说明了固定排放源对齐齐哈尔市春季大气PM2.5的贡献大于移动排放源。     

地下城市综合管廊的抗火构造与消防设计

综合管廊作为现代化城市的基础设施,能够从根本上解决管线埋设或架立引起的挖掘道路、影响交通、破坏景观等问题。提高道路和公用管线的管理水平,有效利用地下空间,提高防灾能力,是现代化都市的必然要求。本文从管廊的构造、抗火设计要求、管线布置、消防系统等方面出发,对地下城市综合管廊的设计提出了一些具体的建议。