Study on the Balance of Agricultural Water and Land Resources on Ningxia Plain

The article puts forward the process and means of regional water and land balance research, and then from two scenarios which are the balances under natural regulation and human intervention, calculated and analysed the balance between water and land on Ningxia Plain. For the balance under natural regulation named farmland water balance, using farmland water resource balance equation, the research estimated the monthly farmland＂ water balance of 8 major crops for all of the 12 counties on Ningxia Plain in the period of 1960-2001; for the balance under human intervention, the research estimated land-use water balance equation of the counties in 2000, and calculated the balance between land use and water resources including irrigating water of all the 12 counties on Ningxia Plain. Results showed that ①precipitation can not meet the water demand of the crops for growth and development on Ningxia Plain, and water shortage is the primary character of farmland water balance under natural regulation. ②the diversity of water and land balance of different counties is distinctly influenced by the crop structure, water quantity for irrigation and irrigation level. ③Irrigation water could meet the crop water demand on Ningxia Plain in 2000, but there was not much space to expand irrigating cultivated land.     

Modeling the spatial pattern of farmland using GIS and multiple logistic regression: a case study of Maotiao River Basin, Guizhou Province, China

Land use change is an important topic in the field of global environmental change and sustainable development. Land use change modeling has attracted substantial attention because it helps researchers understand the mechanisms of land use change and assists regulatory bodies in formulating relevant policies. Maotiao River Basin is located in the province of Guizhou, China, which has a developed agricultural industry in the karst mountain areas. This paper selected biophysical and social–economic factors as independent variables, and constructed a multiple logistic regression of farmland spatial distribution probability by random sampling. Then, by using GIS technology and integrating the 2000 data, this study predicted the farmland spatial pattern. When the predicted map was compared with the actual farmland map for 2000, we noted that 71% of the simulation is in accordance with the 2000 farmland pattern. The result satisfactorily proves the reasonability and applicability of our model.     

Effect of free-air CO2 enrichment on nematode communities in a Chinese farmland ecosystem

At a rice-wheat rotational free-air CO2 enrichment(FACE) platform, the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 on soil nematode communities in a farmland ecosystem was studied. Wheat plots were exposed to elevated atmospheric CO2 (ambient 370 μl/L 200 μl/L).32 families and 40 genera of nematode were observed in soil suspensions during the study period. Under FACE treatment, the numbers of total nematodes, bacterivores and fungivores exhibited an increasing trend. Because of the seasonal variation of soil temperature and moisture, the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 on soil nematodes was only observed under favorable conditions. The response of nematode communities to elevated atmospheric CO2 may indicate the change of soil food web.     

长江三角洲地区耕地总量动态平衡政策目标实现的可能性分析

在分析中国耕地总量动态平衡政策产生背景及区域耕地数量变化驱动因素的基础上,通过建立耕地总量动态平衡政策运行效果评价的社会经济影响因素分析模型,根据当前长江三角洲地区社会经济发展的趋势,认为2005年这一地区是有可能实现耕地总量动态平衡这一政策目标的。但是,2010年该地区耕地拥有量将与耕地总量动态平衡目标相差9.12%,因而实现耕地总量动态平衡的难度较大。同时,研究区域所属的11个城市耕地总量动态平衡政策目标实现的可能性也不一样,具体有4种类型:一是可以实现平衡的,为江苏省泰州市和浙江省湖州市;二是较难实现平衡的,有江苏省南通市、镇江市、常州市和浙江省嘉兴市;三是难以实现平衡的,有江苏省南京市、苏州市、无锡市和扬州市;四是实现平衡可能性不大的,为上海市。同时,文章还认为耕地质量的改善对于区域耕地保护具有实质性的积极意义。     

高邮市基本农田环境质量监测与评价

根据近两年高邮市试点工作经验，介绍基本农田分等定级的环境监测与评价方法，认为积极开展农田环境监测并进行科学评价是基本农田保护的重要工作内容。     

土地退化方法应用初步研究——以闽西沙县东溪流域为例

综合运用^１３７Ｃｓ、土壤磁测等新技术手段,结合土壤结构水稳性、ＣＥＣ等部分土壤理化指标,对闽西沙县东溪流域坡地不同部位的土地退化特征进行初步的定量研究,结果表明：①土壤中^１３７Ｃｓ含量与坡度呈很强的对数关系（Ｒ＝－０８３）,表明土地退化随坡度的增加而加剧；②土壤表层磁化率富集系数与坡度呈较强的对数关系（Ｒ＝－０６３）,表明土地退化随坡度的增加而加剧；③不同地貌部位以及不同的土地利用类型之间,其土壤部分理化指标,在不同的显著性水平上,呈现一定的退化特征。     

黄土高原地区生态建设的关键问题

从黄土高原地区水土保持生态建设的实际情况出发,结合历史经验教训,探讨了生态建设与农业发展、农民脱贫致富的关系.指出生态环境问题归根结底是人的问题,减少人类对生态环境的破坏和干扰,因地制宜地进行植被建设和生态恢复,激励广大农民自觉参与生态建设对黄土高原地区水土保持生态建设成败至关重要.     

广西都安县耕地土壤重金属污染风险评价

为全面了解广西都安瑶族自治县耕地土壤重金属污染特征和生态风险状况,通过实地调查采样及土壤重金属含量分析,利用单因子指数、内梅罗综合指数、Hakanson潜在生态危害指数对都安县耕地土壤中Cd、As、Ni、Zn、Cr、Sb、Cu、Pb这8种重金属进行污染和生态风险评价.结果表明,都安县耕地土壤重金属总体污染严重,74.6%的耕地土壤点位超标,Cd、As、Ni、Zn、Cr、Sb、Cu、Pb的超标率依次为70.6%、42.9%、34.9%、19.8%、19.6%、2.94%、1.59%、0.79%,其中Cd和As超标率远远超过全国和广西水平,是都安县主要的污染元素.都安县耕地土壤总体呈现"中度"生态风险,其中Cd对生态风险贡献率达到88%;九渡乡东南部和保安乡与东庙乡结合部存在高生态风险.都安县耕地土壤重金属污染来自两个主要污染源,其中刁江流域两岸受污灌耕地土壤中As、Sb污染可能主要来源于刁江上游的矿业活动.     

谱系聚类法在小区域粮食安全预测中的应用——以昆山市为例

粮食安全对国民经济的可持续发展起着不可替代的基础性作用,小区域由于受政策因素的影响较大,粮食安全相关指标的变化呈一定阶段性,长时间序列的数学规律并不突出,不利于规划工作的展开。论文基于昆山市的研究,提出谱系聚类与数学模型相结合的基本思路,在此基础上推出了聚类结果有效性的量化判定标准并对聚类法运用准则做了深入的探讨。实际数据分析结果表明:昆山的粮食安全相关的社会经济指标变化确实呈明显阶段性;与利用全部时间序列数据建立的模型相比,运用谱系聚类的模型拟合和预测效果都有明显优势;至2015年,昆山市粮食自给率将下降至6%,最小人均耕地面积降低至0.022 hm²。通过进一步的分析、对比及讨论,文章认为,谱系聚类法运用于小区域粮食安全预测,方法可操作性强,结论科学性显著。     

吉林西部农田生态系统氮平衡及其水环境影响研究

针对吉林省西部地区农田生态系统特点,以1997—2011年统计数据为基础,建立了基于物质守恒原理的氮平衡模型,估算了该地区农田生态系统的氮收支情况,并分析了其对水环境的影响.结果表明:近15年该区氮输入量平均值为56.98×104t·a-1,其中化肥输入氮占总氮的79.59%;氮输出量平均值为42.60×104t·a-1,以作物收获输出为主;氮平衡量变化范围为10.17×104~21.91×104t·a-1,均值为14.38×104t·a-1;氮平衡模型的各项呈增长趋势,受农业生产情况差异的影响,年际间时序变化较大,县市间空间分布差异明显.吉林西部农田生态系统氮平衡表现为盈余状态,氮素的盈余主要受氮肥施用和作物收获影响,农田生态系统氮素的持续盈余并累积对水环境构成一定程度的威胁,借助该区水环境监测数据进行综合分析,受盈余氮素的影响,该区地表水和地下水水质均体现出不同程度的氮超标.