Application of tracer ratio and inverse dispersion methods with boat-based plume measurements to estimate ammonia emissions from seabird colonies

Ammonia emissions from two contrasting seabird colonies in Scotland were measured, based on the determination of atmospheric concentrations downwind of the colonies. Atmospheric concentrations of ammonia (NH₃) across the downwind plume were compared with the inverse application of a Gaussian dispersion model (ID) to calculate the modelled NH₃ emission that would generate the measured cross-wind-integrated plume concentration. In parallel, a tracer gas (sulphur hexafluoride, SF₆) was released from the colonies with air samples taken to allow determination of SF₆ concentrations. On the basis of the known emission rate of SF₆, the magnitude of ammonia emissions was estimated by the cross-wind-integrated tracer ratio (TR) of NH₃/SF₆ concentrations. Coupled with data on annual bird attendance, the measurements indicate annual emissions from the Isle of May and the Bass Rock of 18 and 132 tonnes NH₃-N year^–1, respectively. The measured NH₃ emissions were compared with estimates of seabird nitrogen excretion to estimate the proportion of excreted N that is volatilised as NH₃ (F_Nr). The emission estimates of the two methods compared favourably, giving 4 and 6 kg NH₃-N h^–1 (F_Nr = 15%) for the Isle of May for the ID and TR methods, respectively, and 21 and 25 kg NH₃-N h^–1 (F_Nr = 50%) for the Bass Rock for the ID and TR methods, respectively. The results provide the first measurement-based estimates to allow regional up scaling of ammonia emissions from seabirds.     

近断层地震动考虑能量损伤效应的非弹性强度需求

由于靠近断层处地震地面运动中速度脉冲作用的存在,导致传统的基于瞬时加速度反应谱的抗震设计,不能有效考虑由此带来的巨大能量耗散和位移需求。笔者采用代表性的脉冲型实际近场地震记录和人工模拟三角函数地震动时程,在分析累积输入地震动耗能和结构位移间关系基础上,提出了等效速度比的表达式;给出了近场地震动的等效变形需求表达式;提出了等价延性系数的概念,来考虑由于地震动能量耗散对结构的强度需求;经非线性时程分析方法对其稳定性进行了验证比较,有利于增强结构的安全性。     

小城镇地震数字仿真与应急调度系统的研究

以地理信息系统为平台进行地震灾害研究,建立具有强大空间分析功能的信息系统,将发挥快速、准确的辅助决策作用.本文剖析了小城镇地震应急反应模式存在的弊端,明确了灾害空间的概念,并提出小城镇空间数据库的建库及三维可视化的技术方案.在基础信息数字化和可视化的基础上,开发了小城镇地震数字仿真与应急调度系统,实现了基于地震数字仿真结果,在相关数据库支持下进行地震应急调度决策.实践证明:该系统的运行,有利于小城镇抗震减灾的迅速决策;小城镇空间数据库的建库技术,贴合我国小城镇信息化的现状,技术可行、经济合理.     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

基于GM-SVR的小样本条件下化工设备可靠性预测

为了准确预测化工设备可靠性趋势，针对化工设备失效寿命数据为小样本的情形，基于灰色估计法与支持向量回归机在小样本数据处理中的优势，建立了失效寿命时间服从三参数威布尔分布的化工设备可靠性模型；结合GM（1，1）和SVR对模型进行参数估计，在压缩机可靠性分析中进行了实例应用，对比分析了最小二乘法、灰色估计法和GM-SVR的估计效果。研究结果表明:GM-SVR对威布尔分布参数的估计精度明显优于最小二乘法和灰色估计法，可以有效地应用于化工设备失效数据为小样本时的可靠性预测。     

A hybrid decision-making approach based on FCM and MOORA for occupational health and safety risk analysis

IntroductionWith the development of industries and increased diversity of their associated hazards, the importance of identifying these hazards and controlling the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) risks has also dramatically augmented. Currently, there is a serious need for a risk management system to identify and prioritize risks with the aim of providing corrective/preventive measures to minimize the negative consequences of OHS risks. In fact, this system can help the protection of employees’ health and reduction of organizational costs. Method: The present study proposes a hybrid decision-making approach based on the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), and Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA) for assessing and prioritizing OHS risks. After identifying the risks and determining the values of the risk assessment criteria via the FMEA technique, the attempt is made to determine the weights of criteria based on their causal relationships through FCM and the hybrid learning algorithm. Then, the risk prioritization is carried out using the MOORA method based on the decision matrix (the output of the FMEA) and the weights of the criteria (the output of the FCM). Results: The results from the implementation of the proposed approach in a manufacturing company reveal that the score at issue can overcome some of the drawbacks of the traditional Risk Priority Number (RPN) in the conventional FMEA, including lack of assignment the different relative importance to the assessment criteria, inability to take into account other important management criteria, lack of consideration of causal relationships among criteria, and high dependence of the prioritization on the experts’ opinions, which finally provides a full and distinct risk prioritization.     

Nitrogen evolution during the co-combustion of hydrothermally treated municipal solid waste and coal in a bubbling fluidized bed

Nitrogen evolution was studied during the co-combustion of hydrothermally treated municipal solid wastes (HT MSW) and coal in a bubbling fluidized bed (BFB). HT MSW blending ratios as 10%, 20% and 30% (wt.%) were selected and tested at 700, 800, 900 °C. Emissions of NO and N₂O from blends were measured and compared with the results of mono-combustion trials. Moreover, concentrations of precursors like NH₃ and HCN were also quantified. The results are summarized as follows: NO emissions were predominant in all the cases, which rose with increasing temperature. The blending of HT MSW contributed to the NO reduction. N₂O emissions decreased with temperature rising and the blending of HT MSW also presented positive effects. At 30% HT MSW addition, both NO and N₂O emissions showed the lowest values (391.85 ppm and 55.33 ppm, respectively at 900 °C). For the precursors, more HCN was detected than NH₃ and both played important roles on the gas side nitrogen evolution.     

不同运行模式下改良型CAST工艺处理生活污水的除磷性能

实验采用改良型CAST工艺,以生活污水为研究对象,考察了C/P、回流比及温度等不同运行模式对系统除磷性能的影响.结果表明,常温条件下进水C/P由50升至100,系统除磷率均值从15%迅速升至95.6%,除磷性能显著提高;继而降低C/P至75,除磷性能因进水碳源不足再度下降,除磷率均值为51.4%,且长期投加易降解碳源引发系统污泥膨胀并导致污泥大量流失.C/P较低情况下,回流比由25%降低至12.5%,除磷性能提高2.3倍,继续降低回流比至0,除磷性能反而下降;温度实验研究则表明,低温系统(14℃±1℃),除磷率稳定维持在90%以上,而高温短程硝化系统(27℃±1℃)除磷率仅为14.1%,可见低温更有利于系统磷的去除.吸磷小试发现,常温系统污泥以O_2、NO_3~-和NO_2~-为电子受体均能进行吸磷,而低温系统污泥能以O_2、NO_3~-为电子受体进行吸磷,高温系统污泥则仅能以O_2为电子受体进行少量吸磷.此外,实验还发现,系统短期闲置导致的污泥"饥饿"有利于系统除磷率的提高.     

三峡库区小流域不同土地利用类型“土壤-水体”氮磷含量特征及其相互关系

利用长期田间监测数据,分析了三峡库区典型农业小流域不同土地利用类型土壤、浅层地下水氮磷含量分异特征,剖析了坡面土壤氮磷含量与浅层地下水、坡面地表径流氮磷浓度的相互关系.结果表明梯田的土壤TN平均含量显著(P0.05)高于坡耕地,水田梯田平均含量1.49 g·kg~(-1)最高;旱地坡耕地和桑树套种坡耕地土壤TP平均含量显著高于其它地类;旱地梯田土壤NO_3~--N平均含量最高,离散程度最大.坡面土地利用类型对浅层地下水TN、NO_3~--N浓度影响较大,但对TP浓度影响较小;流域浅层地下水TN浓度与NO_3~--N浓度呈极显著正相关,不同坡面浅层地下水NO_3~--N对TN平均贡献率在67.82%~78.51%之间;浅层地下水TN、NO_3~--N月平均浓度变化规律基本一致,春秋两季农作物施肥后均呈现明显上升趋势.坡面土壤TN平均含量与浅层地下水TN浓度呈显著指数关系,坡面土壤NO_3~--N平均含量与浅层地下水NO_3~--N浓度呈对数关系,但与坡面地表径流TN、NO_3~--N浓度无显著相关性;当坡面地表径流TP浓度0.1 mg·L~(-1)时,坡面土壤TP平均含量与其呈显著线性相关;坡面地表径流与浅层地下水TN、NO_3~--N浓度均呈显著幂函数关系,且NO_3~--N相关性更好.