学习借鉴,走跨越式发展之路

论述了为实现全面建设小康社会的发展目标，必须走跨越式发展之路。     

Significant developments in sustainable development law and governance: A proposal

This article develops a practical proposal for progress on sustainable development law. It examines the prospects for an international sustainable development law to provide a framework for more effective, coherent governance. Sustainable development law is briefly defined and an analytical framework is provided. Different degrees of integration between economic, social and environmental law are described. Certain principles of international law related to sustainable development are also highlighted. It is argued that these principles may serve to guide law‐makers and jurists where social, economic and environmental law and policy conflict or overlap. Continuing, underlying questions of sustainable development governance are addressed and its global frameworks analysed. The article also focuses on the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development, held in Johannesburg in August‐September 2002, and its specific mandate for the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development (UNCSD) to take related legal developments into account. The article advances a proposal: that governments, economic, social and environmental intergovernmental organizations and other actors establish a ‘network of inquiry’ with members from relevant groups, including legal and academic organizations, and other expert groups, in order to follow, research, analyse and debate legal developments in a balanced way.     

农用改性硝酸铵拒爆机理及工业化可行性研究

对农用硝铵作改性处理,通过筛选和优化实验确定了改性硝酸铵配方。结果表明,当硝酸铵中添加3%的改性剂GXJ1,10%的改性剂GXJ2时,产品在1mm铁皮管约束下的雷管感度试验条件下具有拒爆特性。改性硝酸铵总养分与普通硝酸铵相当,并且颗粒强度高,不易粉化、结块和吸潮,具有优良的肥料品质。同时还利用X射线衍射分析、扫描电子显微镜分析对改性硝铵的拒爆机理作初步探讨。最终,建立了改性硝酸铵的脱水性能、流动性能、凝固性能、颗粒强度的评价方法,并进行了工业化可行性研究。     

我国海岸带环境灾害的基本特征与减灾对策

海岸带是自然灾害与社会经济发达区相互重叠的特殊环境地带.我国海岸带环境灾害的基本特征是种类繁多,频次高,破坏性强,与社会经济发展耦合,易形成复杂灾害链等.本文提出了基于可持续发展观点的、以工程建设与生态建设相结合、灾害区划与综合减灾相结合、基础研究与高科技应用相结合的减灾对策.     

小城镇地震数字仿真与应急调度系统的研究

以地理信息系统为平台进行地震灾害研究,建立具有强大空间分析功能的信息系统,将发挥快速、准确的辅助决策作用.本文剖析了小城镇地震应急反应模式存在的弊端,明确了灾害空间的概念,并提出小城镇空间数据库的建库及三维可视化的技术方案.在基础信息数字化和可视化的基础上,开发了小城镇地震数字仿真与应急调度系统,实现了基于地震数字仿真结果,在相关数据库支持下进行地震应急调度决策.实践证明:该系统的运行,有利于小城镇抗震减灾的迅速决策;小城镇空间数据库的建库技术,贴合我国小城镇信息化的现状,技术可行、经济合理.     

利用GPS-RTK技术进行既有线曲线整正测量研究

既有线曲线整正测量是铁路既有线提速改造和工务部门大修设计的主要任务之一。需要改造的既有铁路一般均为繁忙干线,并行车密度较高。传统的测量方法是将测量仪器安置在线路上,这样不仅在作业过程中受行车干扰,作业效率也不够高,而曲线地段通视条件差,作业难度是相当大的。同时,作业人员的安全问题也变得十分突出。笔者提出采用先进的GPS-RTK技术,对既有线曲线整正进行测量。采用该技术不仅能克服气候条件的限制,而且能以较高的频率,较高的精度测定互不通视的各被测点的坐标,克服了传统的作业方法要求置镜点与被测点之间必须通视、作业受天气影响、存在误差累积、内业计算工作量大等缺陷。该法在保证作业人员安全的前提下大大提高作业效率。     

Indicators for sustainable energy development in Lithuania

This article summarizes some of the results from the application of the indicators for sustainable energy development (ISED) tool for analyzing Lithuania's energy sector, in terms of trends, setting energy policy goals and monitoring progress towards these goals. This experience illustrates the potential applicability of the ISED methodology for energy policy development in economies in transition, using Lithuania as an example. The article presents a summary of the results achieved and conclusions arrived at from the analysis of six priority areas in the context of the research project coordinated by the International Atomic Energy Agency, and provides recommendations for the development of sustainable energy policy using the ISED approach.     

安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型

为发展安全科学原理和给事故防控与调查提供新的方法,根据变化对系统安全的影响机制,开展安全降变原理及事故致因新模型研究。首先,提出安全降变原理并解析其内涵及研究意义。其次,基于安全降变原理,给出不同层级安全系统变化的分类实例,并对作业场所事故及其致因重新定义和分类。再次,构建基于安全降变原理的C-S-R事故致因新模型。最后,基于事故案例分析,验证所提出的C-S-R事故致因新模型与安全降变原理的有效性。结果表明,各级安全系统中自发或是受联动的变化超出系统的变化承受水平时,将导致事故的发生。经事故案例分析验证可知,安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型具有充分的实用性。     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Archaeological Evidence of Validity of Fish Populations on Unexploited Reefs as Proxy Targets for Modern Populations

Reef‐fish management and conservation is hindered by a lack of information on fish populations prior to large‐scale contemporary human impacts. As a result, relatively pristine sites are often used as conservation baselines for populations near sites affected by humans. This space‐for‐time approach can only be validated by sampling assemblages through time. We used archaeological remains to evaluate whether the remote, uninhabited Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) might provide a reasonable proxy for a lightly exploited baseline in the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). We used molecular and morphological techniques to describe the taxonomic and size composition of the scarine parrotfish catches present in 2 archaeological assemblages from the MHI, compared metrics of these catches with modern estimates of reproductive parameters to evaluate whether catches represented by the archaeological material were consistent with sustainable fishing, and evaluated overlap between size structures represented by the archaeological material and modern survey data from the MHI and the NWHI to assess whether a space‐for‐time substitution is reasonable. The parrotfish catches represented by archaeological remains were consistent with sustainable fishing because they were dominated by large, mature individuals whose average size remained stable from prehistoric (AD approximately 1400–1700) through historic (AD 1700–1960) periods. The ancient catches were unlike populations in the MHI today. Overlap between the size structure of ancient MHI catches and modern survey data from the NWHI or the MHI was an order of magnitude greater for the NWHI comparison, a result that supports the validity of using the NWHI parrotfish data as a proxy for the MHI before accelerated, heavy human impacts in modern times. Evidencia Arqueológica de la Validez de Poblaciones de Peces en Arrecifes Sin Explotar como Objetivos de Apoderamiento para Poblaciones Actuales