广东省低碳城市评价体系研究

以广东省21个地级市为研究对象,根据低碳发展理念与目标,结合广东省的低碳发展路径,选取与低碳城市发展密切相关的14个基础指标,构建广东省低碳城市评价指标体系进行综合评价。结果表明:(1)广东省低碳城市评价较好的城市主要有广州、深圳、珠海、佛山、惠州等。(2)参与评价的城市得分均较高,整体上具备良好发展势头。(3)排名越靠后的城市,制约指标越多,新能源与可再生能源比例是广东省低碳发展最受制约的指标。(4)单位土地面积碳排放量指标各城市间的反差最大,主要是由于各城市的市域面积不一,能源消费与经济发展不平均而造成的。     

京津冀及周边地区“2+26”城市结构性调整政策的CO2协同减排效益评估

《打赢蓝天保卫战三年行动计划》（"三年行动计划"）明确提出,产业结构调整、能源结构调整、交通结构调整和用地结构调整是大幅减少大气污染物和CO₂排放的重要抓手,这种协同效应非常明显,但在城市群层面还未被量化研究.为此,采用京津冀温室气体-空气污染物协同控制综合评估模型（GAINS-JJJ）,构建了2017年京津冀及周边地区"2+26"城市群基础排放清单,定量分析了"三年行动计划"的实施带来的CO₂和主要大气污染物的排放变化情况.结果表明,与2017年相比,2020年政策情景下"2+26"城市的CO₂、一次PM_2.5、SO₂、NO_x和NH₃的减排量分别为29.1 Mt （相当于2017年排放量的2%）、203.8（21%）、281.8（27%）、485.5（17%）和34.3 kt （3%）,排放量较大的城市或部门都实现了较为明显的减排.碳协同减排效益结果显示,产业结构调整的一系列重大举措（淘汰落后产能、工业锅炉升级改造和散乱污企业综合整治等）取得了良好的CO₂和大气污染物协同减排效应,而不同污染物中NO_x的碳协同减排效应最高.     

产业转型升级与绿色全要素生产率提升的互动关系——基于中国116个地级资源型城市的实证研究

促进产业转型升级,提升绿色全要素生产率是推进我国资源型城市高质量发展的关键。但是,产业转型升级能否提升绿色全要素生产率在学术界一直存在争论。以2003— 2018年中国116个地级资源型城市为对象,分析了产业转型升级与绿色全要素生产率提升的演化特征和互动关系。结果表明：（1）56.9%的资源型城市产业转型升级并不理想,处于产业结构高级化和合理化不同步或双低的状态;有57.8%的资源型城市绿色全要素生产率实现了正增长,但仍有一些资源型城市绿色全要素生产率增长缓慢,主要是因为技术效率未得到有效改善。（2）PVAR模型和脉冲响应估计结果表明,资源型城市绿色全要素生产率提升的滞后期对其自身的影响存在负向作用。同时,资源型城市长期的传导路径为绿色全要素生产率提升受到反映产业结构合理化的泰尔指数的负向冲击后,对产业结构高级化产生持续性的积极作用,之后,产业结构高级化不断对自身产生正向冲击作用。（3）通过方差分解预测可知,未来绿色全要素生产率提升、产业结构高级化与合理化仍主要依赖自身发展路径。产业结构高级化对绿色全要素生产率提升的解释力高于产业结构合理化的解释力。随着期数的增加,产业结构高级化与绿色全要素生产率提升的相互解释力逐渐上升。     

基于半级别的城市空气质量预报评估方法探讨

环境空气质量预报评估是提升预报能力的重要助力,为更好支撑空气质量精细化管理,将我国空气质量细化为12个半级别,参照英国预报评估方法,对2020年“2+26”城市AQI、 PM_2.5浓度和O₃-8h浓度预报开展探索性半级别预报效果评估,通过与AQI范围预报和AQI级别范围预报评估对比发现,半级别预报评估方法可将两者兼容合一,在城市业务预报评估中具有一定可行性和应用价值.具体的半级别预报评估结果表明,“2+26”城市AQI和O₃-8h浓度在低段级别和高段级别的预报效果明显差于中段级别,不同级别PM_2.5浓度预报效果相对稳定;AQI、 PM_2.5和O₃-8h浓度预报准确率月变化曲线分别呈双峰型、先升后降型和平缓型,PM_2.5浓度各月偏高预报显著;不同城市AQI和O₃-8h浓度预报准确率差距相对较小,PM_2.5浓度预报准确率波动较大;北京和天津AQI预报准确率高于周边省份,北京和河南PM_2...     

基于空间距离和时间成本的中小文化旅游城市可达性研究

在区域旅游发展中,中小文化旅游城市是其重要内容之一。除旅游景点本身的吸引力之外,旅游目的地的可达性及旅游景点基础设施的完善是其旅游发展的重要内容,因此中小文化旅游城市的可达性研究具有重要意义。基于GIS软件,论文从空间距离和时间成本角度对全国34个中小文化旅游城市的可达性进行研究。结果表明:我国中小文化旅游城市的可达性表现出非均衡的空间分布特征,其3 h可达服务范围(即游客市场)并未覆盖全国。其中,东北地区、华南地区、内蒙古高原、青藏高原等地区因中小文化旅游城市分布较少而出现可达服务范围的空白区域,而长江三角洲、成渝、鲁西南和海峡西岸等地区中小文化旅游城市的可达服务范围已绵延成片,具有较大的区域旅游合作潜力。此外,通过对中小文化旅游城市的旅游收入、旅游人数与可达范围内社会经济属性进行相关性分析,发现旅游收入与1 h可达范围内的GDP相关性最高,而旅游人数与50 km范围内的GDP相关性最高。     

资源型城市环境库兹涅茨曲线研究——基于面板数据的实证分析

论文以47个地级资源型城市为研究对象,利用2003-2009年的面板数据,运用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)模型,以工业烟尘、工业废水和工业SO₂为例对其环境污染与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:资源类型影响资源型城市EKC的形状与转折点,同种污染物在不同资源型城市的曲线不完全相同,转折点在污染较重的资源型城市及人均GDP较低的资源型城市出现更早;资源型城市的EKC与全国的EKC不完全相同,相同的曲线下资源型城市的转折点出现更早。基于此,论文提出资源型城市应积极进行环境治理、实施绿色转型、大力发展循环经济、扩大实施总量控制的污染物范围,以促进这些城市的可持续发展。     

A multilevel analysis of private-vehicle evacuation clearance times along the US Gulf Coast

This study uses multilevel regression analysis to examine the effect of social characteristics and the built environment on clearance time under an evacuation scenario. The primary unit of analysis is the US Census tract (N?=?1660), nested within 31 incorporated places spanning five US states. The dependent variable is an estimate of clearance time in hours derived using network analysis techniques within a geographic information system. We find that tracts with a more peripheral location, more female residents, a higher proportion of Hispanic residents, and higher median household incomes are associated with higher clearance times, on average. Our research suggests the relationship between suburbanization and clearance time is complex and evolving, mediated by past investments in the built environment and shifting social conditions. In addition to facilitating the evacuation of areas with low access to personal vehicles, urban planners and emergency management officials should also consider how the degree of connectivity in the street network impacts congestion and clearance time.     

Nexus security: governance, innovation and the resilient city

Nexus security is a compound mix of ideas: reconciling human needs and wants with access to multiple resources; diversity of access to those resources and services; resilience in the face of weather- and climaterelated variability; resilience likewise in the face of infrastructure failure; and the personal, individual sense of belonging. At the level of Systems Thinking there is a very close relationship between resilience in the behavior of natural (ecological) systems and resilience in the social dynamics of governance within communities, where such resilience establishes the viability of these communities over centuries, which in turn entails successful stewardship of the man-environment relationship. We use insights from this cross-system mapping — across natural, built, and human systems — to assess, first, the role of city governance in achieving nexus security (or not) and, second, the role of technological innovations in serving the same purpose. More specifically, eight principles, covering resilience and diversity of access to resources and services, are used to gauge security-enhancing features of city buildings and infrastructure. Case studies include new designs of resilient office blocks, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) recovery systems for sanitation and wastewater treatment, and the reconstruction of urban parks for the provision of ecosystem services. Throughout the paper, matters of risk in the face of meteorological variability are prominent. We do not conclude, however, that the presence of risk implies nexus insecurity.     

On water security, sustainability, and the water-food-energy-climate nexus

The role of water security in sustainable development and in the nexus of water, food, energy and climate interactions is examined from the starting point of the definition of water security offered by Grey and Sadoff. Much about the notion of security has to do with the presumption of scarcity in the resources required to meet human needs. The treatment of scarcity in mainstream economics is in turn examined, therefore, in relation to how each of us as individuals reconciles means with ends, a procedure at the core of the idea of sustainable development. According to the Grey-Sadoff definition, attaining water security amounts to achieving basic, single-sector water development as a precursor of more general, self-sustaining, multi-sectoral development. This is consistent with the way in which water is treated as “first among equals”, i.e. privileged, in thinking about what is key in achieving security around the nexus of water, food, energy and climate. Cities, of course, are locations where demands for these multiple resource-energy flows are increasingly being generated. The paper discusses two important facets of security, i.e., diversity of access to resources and services (such as sanitation) and resilience in the behavior of coupled human-built-natural systems. Eight quasi-operational principles, by which to gauge nexus security with respect to city buildings and infrastructure, are developed.     

南通市城镇空间结构研究

南通市城镇空间结构演变具有优越的区位条件和较好的经济基础及发展历史,但综合经济实力欠缺是造成中心城市规模偏小、城镇空间发展不平衡以及城市化水平滞后的根本原因。因而完善南通城镇空间结构的策略应该是走多元化城镇化发展道路,加快城镇建设步伐。通过户籍登记制度和农村土地流转制度改革,优先发展基础设施,优化空间产业布局和城镇空间布局,逐步形成一个层次合理、布局科学的城镇体系,为实现城乡一体化奠定基础。