突发事件连锁反应的实证研究——以2008年初我国南方冰雪灾害为例

从突发事件连锁反应分析,认为2008年初我国南方的冰雪灾害是由自然灾害引发的连锁反应事件。选择了新浪网冰雪灾害报道专题的近4 000篇报道作为数据源,从时间、空间和事件角度揭示了此次冰雪灾害的演化过程,并分析了事件扩散的原因。     

黑龙江省公路雪冰基本特征与灾害防治对策

黑龙江省冬季降雪不多,但在寒冷和强风条件下,容易产生风吹雪,使某些地点形成较深的积雪,阻塞交通.风吹堆积下的积雪在低温下形成密实坚硬的硬深霜.涎流冰是冬季影响山区交通的另一个主要因素,它的各个部位呈现出间歇性增厚的特征,是涌出水在各处反复交替流动、冻结的结果.随着经济发展,交通流量增加,正常降雪将会产生越来越大的影响和危害,必须给予足够的重视.因此,在雪冰减灾战略对策上,应逐步推广使用防滑汽车轮胎,建立较为完善的公路雪冰清除服务体系,并辅以必要的工程措施.     

甘肃省冬春季人工增雨雪作业指挥系统

为了提高甘肃省人工增雨雪的水平和效果，准确、及时地把握作业气象条件，使人工增雨雪在抗旱减灾中取得更好的社会、经济效益，研制建立了“甘肃省冬春季人工增雨雪作业指挥系统”。该系统包括作业信息系统、作业指挥系统和效果检查系统共3个分系统。详细介绍了各分系统的组成和功能。     

Generation of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Using an Enhanced Version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model1

Harshburger, Brian J., Von P. Walden, Karen S. Humes, Brandon C. Moore, Troy R. Blandford, and Albert Rango, 2012. Generation of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts Using an Enhanced Version of the Snowmelt Runoff Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 643‐655. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00642.x Abstract: As water demand increases in the western United States, so does the need for accurate streamflow forecasts. We describe a method for generating ensemble streamflow forecasts (1‐15 days) using an enhanced version of the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). Forecasts are produced for three snowmelt‐dominated basins in Idaho. Model inputs are derived from meteorological forecasts, snow cover imagery, and surface observations from Snowpack Telemetry stations. The model performed well at lead times up to 7 days, but has significant predictability out to 15 days. The timing of peak flow and the streamflow volume are captured well by the model, but the peak‐flow value is typically low. The model performance was assessed by computing the coefficient of determination (R²), percentage of volume difference (Dv%), and a skill score that quantifies the usefulness of the forecasts relative to climatology. The average R² value for the mean ensemble is >0.8 for all three basins for lead times up to seven days. The Dv% is fairly unbiased (within ±10%) out to seven days in two of the basins, but the model underpredicts Dv% in the third. The average skill scores for all basins are >0.6 for lead times up to seven days, indicating that the ensemble model outperforms climatology. These results validate the usefulness of the ensemble forecasting approach for basins of this type, suggesting that the ensemble version of SRM might be applied successfully to other basins in the Intermountain West.     

低温复合条件下救灾帐篷环境适应性试验与评价

目的研究救灾帐篷性能受恶劣环境的影响。方法建立多灾复合环境试验平台,利用其平台开展救灾帐篷不同工况下的试验研究,探究不同环境下救灾帐篷内部热环境分布和保温性能的变化。结果帐篷内部热环境分层现象只发生在温度上升阶段,而在附加风载后,分层现象减弱,在下降阶段,各内表面温度变化情况表现基本一致,当附加雪载环境温度低于–10℃时,救灾帐篷的保温性变差。利用价值函数法建立了救灾帐篷耦合环境适应性评价指标体系,提出了风&低温、雨雪复合环境下救灾帐篷适应性评价方法,得出评价得分,并与试验结果相印证。结论低温复合环境下,帐篷内环境受外界影响较大,保温性能不佳,易出现“冷室效应”,应积极寻找新型材料改善帐篷在恶劣环境下的环境适应性。     

湖北省1954/2008年历史罕见持续低温冰雪过程对比分析

1954年12月26日-1955年1月18日湖北省遭遇了120年一遇的历史罕见持续低温冰雪灾害。2008年1月13日-2月3日,湖北省再次出现了一次持续低温冰雪过程,严重程度仅次于1954年,为70年一遇。利用常规天气图和数值预报产品资料,应用天气学和波谱分析方法,对比分析了两次过程的环流形势特征及能谱特征。结果表明:两次过程具有基本一致的长波系统背景场、水汽条件、地面冷空气条件;在低温冰雪过程中,850～700hPa存在明显逆温层;中高纬度、中低纬度能量谱强度、输送和转换有明显的变化,并且与天气系统的变化相对应。但是,两次天气过程的表现形式有明显差异,而且前者的主要影响系统,如阻塞高压、低涡、副高和地面冷高压等的强度均明显比后者强。     

基于灾害系统的中国南北方雪灾对比研究——以2008年南方冰冻雨雪灾害和2009年北方暴雪灾害为例

基于2008年中国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害和2009年北方暴雪灾害典型雪灾案例,确定了这两场雪灾影响范围.从区域致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和灾情等方面进行灾害系统对比分析,结果表明:南北方雪灾受灾区域覆盖面积广,重灾区前者为南岭地区,后者为华北平原中部;两场雪灾范围叠加区为南北方过渡地带.南北方雪灾均呈链发式,前者以"雨雪...     

九连山自然保护区常绿阔叶林冰雪灾害研究

以九连山国家级自然保护区典型常绿阔叶林为对象,研究树木属性、地形因子与冰雪灾害受损程度的关系.结果表明:九连山常绿阔叶林(DBH≥10 cm)以栲属物种占据主要优势.断梢率、腰折率、翻蔸率和平均受损指数(MDI)最高的树种分别为马尾松、米槠、丝栗栲和米槠,最低的树种分别为红楠、丝栗栲、枫香和罗浮柿.断梢率与胸径(DBH)、树高(H)显著正相关(P<0.01),与H/DBH显著负相关(P<0.01);腰折率与DBH显著负相关(P<0.01);翻蔸率与DBH显著负相关(P<0.01).林分受损程度分析显示,在22≤DBH<24 cm、15≤H<17 m或100≤H/DBH<110时,MDI值最高,在40≤DBH<42 cm、5≤H<7 m或H/DBH≥120时,MDI值最低.坡向对腰折率和MDI值影响显著(P<0.01),N-NE生境中MDI值最高;坡度对树木不同受损指标影响不显著(P>0.05),坡度30°～40°生境中MDI值最高.     

Abundance and community of snow bacteria from three glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau

Bacterial abundance and diversity in snow of East Rongbuk,Laohugou and Hailuogou glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau were investigated through epifluorescence microscope and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis.Cell abundance ranged from 4.0 × 10 3 to 290.2 × 10 3 cells/mL.The phylogenetic trees placed the 16S rRNA sequences in four major groups:Proteobacteria,Firmicutes,Actinobacteria and Bacteroidetes.Brevundimonas,Flavobacterium,Hymenobacter,Bacillus,Polaromonas,Rhodoferax and Streptomyces were widely distributed bacteria in glaciers from different cold regions.The remaining five genera of Hylemonella,Delftia,Zoogloea,Blastococcus and Rhodococcus were endemism,only recovered from our investigated glaciers.It is proposed that the three glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau provide a specific ecological niche for prolonging survival of diverse microbial lineages.     

Distribution and characteristic of PAHs in snow of Fildes Peninsula

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) investigation in different matrices has been reported largely, whereas reports on snow samples were limited. Snow, as the main matrix in the polar region, has an important study meaning. PAHs in snow samples were analyzed to investigate the distribution and contamination status of them in the Antarctic, as well as to provide some references for global migration of PAHs. Snow samples collected in Fildes Peninsula were enriched and separated by solid-phase membrane disks and eluted by methylene dichloride, then quantified by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. All types of PAHs were detected except for Benzo(a)pyrene. Principal component analysis method was applied to characterize them. Three factors (Naphthalene, Fluorene and Phenanthrene) accounted for 60.57%, 21.61% and 9.80%, respectively. The results showed that the major PAHs sources maybe the atmospheric transportation, and the combustion of fuel in Fildes Peninsula. The comparison of concentration and types of PAHs between accumulated snow and fresh snow showed that the main compound concentrations in accumulated snow samples were higher than those in fresh ones. The risk assessment indicated that the amount of PAHs in the snow samples would not lead to ecological risk.